Any AF flight schedule cuts/reductions?

Old Mar 11, 2020, 3:37 pm
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And there's not only fear for the virus, let's not underestimate the fear for the fear for the virus. I'm not talking about the risks associated with the virus itself, I am talking about the measures that are being put in place around the world, some of them irrational, which can be very off-puting. Nobody wants to be put in quarantine far away from home for 2 weeks just because they may or may not have been in contact with someone who turned out to have the virus. I agree that the media play a big role in this irrational hysteria. Companies are possibly just reacting to clauses in their insurance policies.

I feel I need to revise the above a little. Whilst panicking is never a good idea. News from Italy is pretty grim, and perhaps such escalation can only be prevented with strict measures.

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Old Mar 11, 2020, 4:30 pm
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It looks like AF is canceling flights to SEA through at least the end of March. DL also appears to be zeroing out inventory on several of their CDG-SEA flights so they may be close to canceling some as well.

AF has also zeroed out inventory on the CDG-AMM route through 31-Mar, likely due to the recent restrictions that will be imposed by the Jordanian government on passengers arriving from France starting 14-Mar.
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Old Mar 11, 2020, 7:21 pm
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Given Trump's statement they will be cancelling flights to ALL US destinations for at least 30 days from Friday.
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Old Mar 11, 2020, 10:22 pm
  #19  
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US citizens have to return home, so there will be flights. Similarly, many EU citizens currently in the US will have to fly back to EU.
Let's see how the details evolve. How crew will be treated, etc...
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Last edited by brunos; Mar 11, 2020 at 10:32 pm
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Old Mar 11, 2020, 11:20 pm
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Originally Posted by brunos
US citizens have to return home, so there will be flights. Similarly, many EU citizens currently in the US will have to fly back to EU.
Let's see how the details evolve. How crew will be treated, etc...
Indeed, it's a developing story to say the least. U.S. citizens and legal residents are exempt, according to the NY Times:

"The limits take effect Friday at midnight and will exempt American citizens and permanent legal residents and their families, although they could be funneled to certain airports for enhanced screening."
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 1:29 am
  #21  
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Woke this morning to the breaking news of the travel ban (see below), and email from AF. AF says our flight IST-CDG is OK, original flight CDG-SEA is canceled, they’ve rebooked us CDG-AMS (on AF), then AMS-SEA on DL. So we have flights home - assuming there are no additional cancelations (which could happen, given the “ban”).

The “ban” is just hours old, seems to have been rolled out, um, somewhat ad hoc (I’m ttrying to avoid politics here...) and details at this point appear incomplete and a bit muddled: according to BBC, the ban does not apply to US citizens, permanent residents, or family members (as long as they pass some not-yet-specified health screening). Although it’s been described generally as applying to “Europe”, according to BBC it actually applies to the Schengen zone, the UK explicitly excluded. In practice, on the ground, I suspect things will evolve a bit over the next few days.

Given that I have been in Turkey (certainly non-Schengen, not on the “banned” list of countries, and with zero officially reported cases of the virus), and since we have freshly-issued tickets home, we should be OK. But we’re not scheduled to head home for 6 more days, and things probably will continue to evolve in that time.

There is a nonstop DL flight from CDG-SEA that would work for us; I’m thinking of trying to call AF and request that. Theres a chance more flights could be canceled. Right now we have three legs (IST-CDG, CDG-AMS, AMS-SEA). Three chances a flight could be canceled, three chances of other complication (what exactly constitutes the “required health screening”? just a thermal temp check? I’m not really worried about failing that, just looking to minimize potential failure points). One less connection would be nicer, but I’m thinking the real benefit would be one less opportunity for something to go sideways.

For the TATL leg, we’re looking at Delta, either from CDG-SEA or AMS-SEA. Does anyone here have any insights into which route Delta would be more likely to preserve? All things being equal, I’d rather cut out the extra connection at AMS. But I don’t want to bet on the wrong horse, only to find that my preferred route gets canceled in a few days.

I know I’m just reading tea leaves here, trying to guess which route would be the last one to go. Anyone have a guess as to which route is more important to Delta, CDG-SEA or AMS-SEA?

And FWIW I am starting to game out a Plan C (and D and E...) that would bypass the rest of Europe on the way home...but hoping that doesn’t become necessary...

Thanks for any insights/advice.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 2:56 am
  #22  
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As you state, the future is totally unpredictable. The situation will get a bit clearer in a couple of days. One relevant question for your case is whether USA will treat CDG/AMS pax as not coming from Schengen. I doubt.it.

If you are American, I would not worry as the US will do everything to repatriate you.
It would make sense for Plan A to try to get IST-CDG-SEA (on DL) rather than via AMS. But you know that SEA is hit hard by coronavirus, so the only pax will probably be tourists going home. No business trafic anymore. AF was flying 3 days a week to SEA, so there was more traffic to SEA than from AMS. On the other hand the DL flight from CDG on 18 Mar shows zero availability in all classes.

A plan B to avoid Schengen will be costly as you have already flown the outbound.

BTW Turkey reported one case on Wednesday and locals suggest that there were no cases because of the absence of tests.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 3:20 am
  #23  
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Originally Posted by brunos
the DL flight from CDG on 18 Mar shows zero availability in all classes...
Thank you, that would seem to confirm the speculation...
I just called AF and got through. Agent tried to put us on the DL nonstop CDG-SEA, but said there was no space available. Maybe that’s true, maybe it means that flight is blocked because it’s going to be canceled, too. We will manage with the extra stop in AMS and count our blessings.

Yes, we are US citizens, so technically not under the ban.

Originally Posted by brunos
One relevant question for your case is whether USA will treat CDG/AMS pax as not coming from Schengen. I doubt.it.


I suspect you are correct, though it’ll be pretty clear that our origin was IST and we will only be transiting CDG/AMS. Probably too fine a point, maybe by then they will have normalized things a bit.


Originally Posted by brunos
A plan B to avoid Schengen will be costly as you have already flown the outbound.


True, but less costly than 30 days in Paris or Amsterdam.

Originally Posted by brunos
BTW Turkey reported one case on Wednesday and locals suggest that there were no cases because of the absence of tests.
Would not surprise me. Thanks for the data point.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 3:39 am
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Originally Posted by nwflyboy
Woke this morning to the breaking news of the travel ban (see below), and email from AF. AF says our flight IST-CDG is OK, original flight CDG-SEA is canceled, they’ve rebooked us CDG-AMS (on AF), then AMS-SEA on DL. So we have flights home - assuming there are no additional cancelations (which could happen, given the “ban”).

The “ban” is just hours old, seems to have been rolled out, um, somewhat ad hoc (I’m ttrying to avoid politics here...) and details at this point appear incomplete and a bit muddled: according to BBC, the ban does not apply to US citizens, permanent residents, or family members (as long as they pass some not-yet-specified health screening). Although it’s been described generally as applying to “Europe”, according to BBC it actually applies to the Schengen zone, the UK explicitly excluded. In practice, on the ground, I suspect things will evolve a bit over the next few days.

Given that I have been in Turkey (certainly non-Schengen, not on the “banned” list of countries, and with zero officially reported cases of the virus), and since we have freshly-issued tickets home, we should be OK. But we’re not scheduled to head home for 6 more days, and things probably will continue to evolve in that time.

There is a nonstop DL flight from CDG-SEA that would work for us; I’m thinking of trying to call AF and request that. Theres a chance more flights could be canceled. Right now we have three legs (IST-CDG, CDG-AMS, AMS-SEA). Three chances a flight could be canceled, three chances of other complication (what exactly constitutes the “required health screening”? just a thermal temp check? I’m not really worried about failing that, just looking to minimize potential failure points). One less connection would be nicer, but I’m thinking the real benefit would be one less opportunity for something to go sideways.

For the TATL leg, we’re looking at Delta, either from CDG-SEA or AMS-SEA. Does anyone here have any insights into which route Delta would be more likely to preserve? All things being equal, I’d rather cut out the extra connection at AMS. But I don’t want to bet on the wrong horse, only to find that my preferred route gets canceled in a few days.

I know I’m just reading tea leaves here, trying to guess which route would be the last one to go. Anyone have a guess as to which route is more important to Delta, CDG-SEA or AMS-SEA?

And FWIW I am starting to game out a Plan C (and D and E...) that would bypass the rest of Europe on the way home...but hoping that doesn’t become necessary...

Thanks for any insights/advice.
If it was me I would try to connect in Vancouver (YVR). CDG-YVR-SEA. Canada has not implemented the travel bans so Vancouver should be safer from being canceled. If something happens to the Delta flight from YVR-SEA there is also train service between the two cities.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 3:45 am
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I am trying to help you by looking at EF. AF also cancelled on 16, but the DL flight still sells seats in Y (not J although the seat map cabin looks quite empty). But on 18 no seats for sale, although the seat maps cabin also looks quite empty.
Try to call again late afternoon and the situation might be a bit clearer.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 8:52 am
  #26  
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From AF website update 12 March
We have temporarily suspended our flights to mainland China, Hong Kong, Seoul and Taipei.

Depending on how the situation evolves, we plan to gradually resume operations to and from Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong and Taipei as from 29 March 2020.
In addition, we are adapting our flights schedule to Singapore and
Japan.

Last edited by brunos; Mar 12, 2020 at 9:01 pm
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 2:08 pm
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Originally Posted by Fiordland
If it was me I would try to connect in Vancouver (YVR). CDG-YVR-SEA. Canada has not implemented the travel bans so Vancouver should be safer from being canceled. If something happens to the Delta flight from YVR-SEA there is also train service between the two cities.
I think it's a question of hours before Canada implement the same rules as USA. Not because they want it or it is needed but because of the media and people pressure who will question why the same measure is not taken to protect the Canadian citizens from the hordes of infected Europeans (Schengen only of course, as the virus has been stopped at the limit of the Schengen area thanks to the Brexit ). The current Canadian position is unfortunately not sustainable.
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 2:16 pm
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Originally Posted by Goldorak
I think it's a question of hours before Canada implement the same rules as USA. Not because they want it or it is needed but because of the media and people pressure who will question why the same measure is not taken to protect the Canadian citizens from the hordes of infected Europeans (Schengen only of course, as the virus has been stopped at the limit of the Schengen area thanks to the Brexit ). The current Canadian position is unfortunately not sustainable.
We will have to see. The rules the US has introduced for Europe are identical to rules they introduced for China. Canada did not follow the US lead on China.

When asked the deputy Canadian PM said "We in Canada believe in science. We believe in listening to experts, to medical experts," she said. "In all of our health and safety measures, we are going to be guided by the best scientific advice, which is what we have been doing thus far."
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 2:55 pm
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Originally Posted by Fiordland
We will have to see. The rules the US has introduced for Europe are identical to rules they introduced for China. Canada did not follow the US lead on China.
You have a very valid point.

Originally Posted by Fiordland
When asked the deputy Canadian PM said "We in Canada believe in science. We believe in listening to experts, to medical experts," she said. "In all of our health and safety measures, we are going to be guided by the best scientific advice, which is what we have been doing thus far."
If they act like this, I will have really full respect for them. But you know that decisions are not always made rationally... We'll see
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Old Mar 12, 2020, 3:00 pm
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I was originally planning to take my summer vacations in the US, but I guess with the political announcement and the resulting fallout (I don't think AF would operate empty flights), I guess I can toss those plans out the window. And my mother was planning to visit me end of next month, but I've told her to just go ahead and cancel her flight from the US.
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