sky guy

This topic is a sore spot for a lot of people, so apologies if this reiterates the frustration with this issue... I've been following the threads, and thought I had a reasonable understanding of the vagaries of how AC decides (or not) re C loads.

However --

I find I am STILL at a loss to understand how C gets zeroed out -

for example:

AC 33 (YVR-SYD) as reflected on itn.net today (Aug 27)

Wednesday, Sept 11:

J9 C3 / all others 9 except L6.
Biz seat maps: 14 seats reserved /10 seats open.


Tuesday, Sept 10:

J9 C0 / all others 9.
Biz seat maps: 5 reserved / 19 open


Would that your altruistic perspicacity may perchance be of succor in my abject nescience...!

Andrew Yiu

As far as I can see, there's absolute no logic in the way they allocate C class. A flight could have 2 J seats left and they make it J2C2 while C0 if J is wide open.

One of the major flaws with the current upgrade system.

AC*SE

I suspect that the quest for logic rather depends on having all of the information, which, regrettably, we don't have.

I think it depends primarily on route. It is simple enough to know that J sells well on some routes, and it does not sell well on others.

Secondarily, it depends on sales patterns on that particular flight. For example, if a lot of C class has been taken up by CRTW's or discount biz sales, then it is more appropriate to scoot some more avaialability in for upgrades.

Finally, it has to be borne in mind, that from the airline's perspective empty J seats can always be given out to upgrade eligible passengers at the gate.

I have certainly been in situations where I have been unable to confirm an upgrade this year. But I have never been in a position where I haven't gotten an upgrade for which I was eligible.

Tractor Boy

You're lucky - I have several times.

exAC

The day with C3 is Sept 11th and maybe the thought is that people are averse to travelling that day. This might then create an increased demand on Sept 10th??

FlyerGoldII

Slightly an oblique question:

For business class award seats (D), one can go to the aeroplan web site, to see if D seats are available, or not. However, the web site does not tell you how many (if there are some left) available D seats that are available (although one can get that information indirectly, by asking about the availability of business class award seats, with a booking of 2 or more passengers).

To my knowledge, there is no web site that tells number of D seats that are available, as is the case with the number of C seats?

I wonder if there is any simple way to guess-estimate (or speculate) the number of D seats that might be available, on the basis of the numbers of available J seats, C seats, and the ratio of J and C seats.

[This message has been edited by FlyerGoldII (edited 08-27-2002).]

100,000miler

My concern is not over Aeroplan inventory, as that is always a lottery, but rather over upgrade class or C.

Before I book a flight I always check out the odds, and I never can understand why some flights are booked up on C inventory weeks and even months in advance. SEs can only book a C seat 7 days in advance, so who are these other people that are even more important than AC's best customers? I do know it is AC that is playing around with this inventory but frankly I do not think this is fair. I have been loyal and paid thousands of dollars on the condition that I got some perks, and here they are reducing them. As a SE, I have had several times when I was not upgraded and I am not very happy, even one time when I was paying full J. I did not even get a credit notice from AC, that is how disrespectful they can be.

Shareholder

I think it is very clear by now that AC is zeroing out C on several critical [to it] flights where loads may be uncertain to forecast [given decimation of any projection software as a result of 9.11] each J seat can be worth many thousands of dollars and last minute sale becomes a distinct possibility. This includes HKG, SYD and seasonally, LHR and CDG and perhaps NRT.

This represents a very small portion of inventory, but to AC becomes a very critical $ issue. It cannot afford to release upgrades if there is a chance that space in the front may be saleable within the final week.

SYD has become a problem because AC is still "digesting" redirected/protected loads from the cancelled MEL service, and it will likely remain so until the end of the summer travel season through mid- to late-September. HKG is always a problem due to its unique noshow situation. And LHR is a seasonal business route on which traffic in the front rebuilds through the fall.

So there is very much a logic on these routes, as AC*SE sets out. Otherwise, I don't think you will have much of a problem 7-days out or even 72-hours out [YVR-YYZ-YVR will return to normalcy after Labour Day]. The real lotto going on is whether on some routes right now, including LHR, FRA YVR from their origination cities, it is better just to buy the cheapest ticket and expect an op upgrade at flight time, versus spending a few hundred dollars more to confirm a C seat at the appropriate upgrading window.

BlondeBomber

I don't mind playing the upgrade lottery if it is a fair game. The lack of fairness comes in the inability to upgrade from any fare (with limitations of course) and the inability to book specific fare classes online.

I am quite happy to have AC zero out C class anticipating they will sell the seat but then freeing it up closer to flight time if that was too optimistic an assessment.

In reality, I have never missed on getting an upgrade but it still does make one a bit nervous about paying extra for a fare simply for the possibility of getting an upgrade.

I prefer a system that is any fare upgrade with availability based in time by fare class, ie. Y gets time of booking upgrade, H gets 7 day advance, V gets 3 day advance, Q gets 24 hr. advance and L (see you at the gate, but still may be possible). The alternative is H or higher fares but upgrade at time of booking. Either works for me and seems fair. I would think the former method would be most preferable to AC since it is the most revenue enhancing.

and not to beat a dead horse, but I was promised by AC more than 2 years ago, to have a booking engine that would allow booking by fare class (ie H, Q, L V etc.)

Ferrari

I think the answer to this will come in the new program!

I'm looking for my next SYD flight middle of this month, its currently showing J7 C0

Yet when I speak to SE Desk they are 15 seat in J free.!

go figure.!

Saying that i hav'nt missed one yet, so I not complaining !.




[This message has been edited by Ferrari (edited 09-01-2002).]

BlondeBomber

Good luck Ferrari, not that you'll need it by the looks of it.

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BlondeBomber's Star Alliance Gold Comparison Chart 2002
Dorian's Star Alliance RTW Price Chart

Ken hAAmer

Of late, I've come to a different understanding of how things have worked for the past 20 years. I've had this vague idea of what's really been happening, but listening to an economist on NPR recently, it finally gelled.

What that economist said was that the period from 1982 to 2000 was the most robust period of economic growth in the history of the world. And there it is.

For the last two decades, since before the advent of either frequent flyer programs or yield management, the western world consumer has been in a feeding frenzy. And this feeding frenzy of demand has meant that anything goes. It meant you could glue a plastic fish to a piece of wood and make millions.

The conclusion is that none of this stuff worked. Clearly the dot com high tech bubble was all smoke and mirrors, and now it's starting to appear that so was most stratosphere management. Nortel lost the GDP of several small countries combined in one year. WorldCom et al couldn't make a profit except by massive fraud, abbeted by the very auditors that were supposed to uncover it. The investment brokerage community continuously tossed strichnine laced meat to the masses, and in their feeding frenzy the consumer swallowed it whole. And now the once largest and mightiest airline in the world is worth less than a MacDonalds franchise. It should be clear that for the most part many senior management types were actually clowns in sheep's clothing, and didn't have a clue what they were doing. (Coincidentally, in the US, they now have bumper stickers that say "If you can read this then you're not the president.")

I'm becoming more convinced with each passing day and its revelations that management, including yield management, has been all smoke and mirrors. These guys (and for the most part, they were guys) had no clue, and just rolled with the punches. There was always another sucker (one born every minute) to catch them and provide a soft landing.

Did/does yield management work? Perhaps. Better than reading tea leaves or chicken entrails? Probably not. What's happened isn't that yield management has been "decimated" nor has management fallen on hard times. It's always been that way. Only now consumers, now satiated and suffering the inevitable heartburn, have woken up in the middle of the night and realized just what the hell has really been going on.


[This message has been edited by Ken hAAmer (edited 09-01-2002).]

Ferrari

Ken...

Very well put...spot on!...

I thank my lucky stars that my manager of a few years ago, told me that I didn't fit in with corporate america and then fired me.!

Probably the only thing he got right..!..

He just could'nt understand why I wanted to tell the truth to clients...

Well thanks to that man and the company we started our own very successful business based on an old fashion fable in business, Integrity!.

If only the airlines could do the same....

I really think the US market can suffer the loss of UAL with not to much problem, the econmy might not...but theres always another side.

As a side note, after my recent China trip I realized that this country [china] will leave the USA for dead in a few years from a manufacturing and econmical stand point...
Watch out !

Shareholder

Whether yield management software really worked will be something we will never know, just as we will never know if the entire Y2K thing was worth the money and effort expended on it. As for the prevailing business ethos of the past decade, it was ripe with frauds and charlattans, and Harvard MBAs. And since governments were no longer borrowing to cover their deficits, lots of private money looking for a fast return.

But is this any different from the fraud that supports our entire broadcasting industry: advertising. The notion that people actually watch and listen to ads on TV and radio, then run out and buy the products advertised...

Or organized religion for that matter!

So what else is new? The point of this thread is that AC wants to keep as many open J seats on certain prime flights until the very last minute, then will release them for upgrading. It affects maybe 1% of the daily fleet capacity, and really only matters if you happen to be waiting for one of those seats to open up.

Ken hAAmer

Given that one of the US TV network head honchos (I don't recall which one) recently said that people using TiVo to skip past commercials are defrauding the networks, it would appear that management arrogance, incompetence and stupidity is not limited to the airline industry.

(Good thing this is the AC forum.)