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Old Apr 15, 2012, 2:25 am
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The future SE (2014)

Based on the draconian changes just announced for the M&M program, I am starting to believe that the 2014 SE enhancement will be

1. Two tiers of status miles, namely gold status and SE qualifying status miles
2. Only partial miles for T+ and latitude international economy tickets, zero miles for north america and Canada non latitude fares, elimination of any miles, including non status miles for T fares all round.
3. Upgrades available from latitude only
4. 100 percent status miles for discounted biz fares, 125 for Z and 150 for C and J
5. SE qualifying miles only on latitude North America and biz class flights.
6. Star alliance partner miles only on full Y and above
7. No SE Q miles from partner airlines.

This would make the current type of SE obsolete and move us down to the 75k elite tier level, and create a new class of SE based on high revenue tickets only.

For 2015 then I wouldn't be surprised if Z fares are going to be standby biz at the gate or T-7 etc., only, essentially making them like latitude pass fares are now.

The cost of becoming or maintaining SE would be something in the order of $40-50k per year, up from 2011 $10k and current estimated $20k per year.

Last edited by FlyerTalker683455; Apr 15, 2012 at 2:46 am
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 2:32 am
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How would you see no. 1 working? I see that we are part the way there on no. 2. T fares offering now miles within NA will happen soon I suspect.

Only allowing upgrades from Latitude would really piss people off. I guess most fares bought by Es and SEs are T+

Here is another one: no MLL for E. They get passes like P now, only a few more.

If they did everything on your list, there would be a significant reduction of SEs.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 2:43 am
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Originally Posted by JTXC
How would you see no. 1 working? I see that we are part the way there on no. 2. T fares offering now miles within NA will happen soon I suspect.

Only allowing upgrades from Latitude would really piss people off. I guess most fares bought by Es and SEs are T+

Here is another one: no MLL for E. They get passes like P now, only a few more.

If they did everything on your list, there would be a significant reduction of SEs.
1 works exactly as stated. Only a subset of status miles will be considered socalled SE Q miles. MLL will probably remain in place for all Star Golds, but perhaps they will give first class partner access to SE, as they already do at LH for star golds now.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 4:53 am
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I doubt well see such drastic changes. Main reason being ACs financial situation and competitive environment is much more similar to that of UA and AA who both offer a competitive 100k status miles program to SE.

AC already is more restrictive when it comes to upgrades as T+ fares can only be confirmed within the 7days window.

ACs major goals should be to:

1) encourage pax to choose AC vs. a competitor airline
2) encourage pax to pay a higher fare than neccessary (i.e. buy up from T to T+ or T+ to Lat or even T+/Lat to Z/J)

IMO AC isnt doing a particularly good job at either right now.

Unless they want to get rid off half their SE members, I think the following changes would make much more sense:

1) 100% miles for T+ fares, 125% miles for Lat fares, 150% for Z fares, 200% for J fares ONLY on AC metal while keeping the current rates for *A partners
2) possibly requiring 50% of status miles to be earnt on AC metal to earn SE status
3) possibly creating a tier above SE (while not alienating the current SE base) similar to UA GS; not a huge amount of added hard benefits, but a higher service standard (e.g. an e-mail address which responds within 24h AND is empowered to deal with pretty much anything; open-doors lounge access policy)
4) rewards for flying AC metal, e.g. one gift for every 100k AC lifetime miles: wouldnt have to be much, maybe choice of 30 upgrade credits, 25k award miles, 1 free hotel night at any of ACs partners - basically something that reinforces the idea that AC cares about the pax
5) more special events for SEs: the feedback re: the recent 787 event was very positive and many SEs even took a day off from work. Why not have more events and make sure each SE (or if you prefer: each SE with x status miles flown on AC metal) is invited to an event once a year
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 5:16 am
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Originally Posted by Jasper2009
4) rewards for flying AC metal, e.g. one gift for every 100k AC lifetime miles: wouldnt have to be much, maybe choice of 30 upgrade credits, 25k award miles, 1 free hotel night at any of ACs partners - basically something that reinforces the idea that AC cares about the pax
5) more special events for SEs: the feedback re: the recent 787 event was very positive and many SEs even took a day off from work. Why not have more events and make sure each SE (or if you prefer: each SE with x status miles flown on AC metal) is invited to an event once a year
I really like those ideas, it would make me want to even attempt to qualify for SE. ^
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:19 am
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Originally Posted by Allvest
3. Upgrades available from latitude only
If they were to do this, AC would lose pretty much all of my business. Given that I'm not permitted to buy Latitude and up, I would then just buy whatever's cheapest.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:28 am
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Originally Posted by hjohnson
If they were to do this, AC would lose pretty much all of my business. Given that I'm not permitted to buy Latitude and up, I would then just buy whatever's cheapest.
Yes. My point is that this is precisely what Lufthansa is doing in Europe now that they dominate the skies there...
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:46 am
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Originally Posted by Allvest
Yes. My point is that this is precisely what Lufthansa is doing in Europe now that they dominate the skies there...
Main problem with your argument is that, for this to work, AC would have to dominate the skies in NA. Since they are not holding their own in Canada, let alone NA, how would you suggest that they implement this idea without losing all SE business? UA would look pretty good.

Fear mongering, mayhaps?
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:47 am
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Originally Posted by hjohnson
If they were to do this, AC would lose pretty much all of my business. Given that I'm not permitted to buy Latitude and up, I would then just buy whatever's cheapest.
On a separate but related matter, the E-upgrade system is very good for domestic flights on AC metal but it is of absolutely no use for TPAC and perhaps only slightly better than no use for TATL

I do not like wondering if I will be in J right up to the time of departure. And to pay AC's exorbitant latitude fares or J fares across the pond is just plain dumb

For example I can book the equivalent of latitude with Delta and usa an SWU and be assured of busness class TPAC. Cost-approx 3500.00 all in and on a 777 LR.

And this gives me my choice of departure city and time and in fact I can usually add in a stop or two to increase the MQM's.

Four times in a row I have missed upgrading on AC as a SE and on a not inexpensive T+ fare(north of 2K) TPAC. I am not happy to be paying 2K to sit in coach.

I suspect that a lot of business travelers are coming to the same conclusion and if flying*A will choose a different carrier.

Okay, so my point here being that AC needs to be relaxing their FF program and not tightening it
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:54 am
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Originally Posted by Allvest
Based on the draconian changes just announced for the M&M program, I am starting to believe that the 2014 SE enhancement will be

1. Two tiers of status miles, namely gold status and SE qualifying status miles
2. Only partial miles for T+ and latitude international economy tickets, zero miles for north america and Canada non latitude fares, elimination of any miles, including non status miles for T fares all round.
3. Upgrades available from latitude only
4. 100 percent status miles for discounted biz fares, 125 for Z and 150 for C and J
5. SE qualifying miles only on latitude North America and biz class flights.
6. Star alliance partner miles only on full Y and above
7. No SE Q miles from partner airlines.

This would make the current type of SE obsolete and move us down to the 75k elite tier level, and create a new class of SE based on high revenue tickets only.

For 2015 then I wouldn't be surprised if Z fares are going to be standby biz at the gate or T-7 etc., only, essentially making them like latitude pass fares are now.

The cost of becoming or maintaining SE would be something in the order of $40-50k per year, up from 2011 $10k and current estimated $20k per year.
This is all getting too complicated and to be honest I don't know why AC and for that matter all the other airlines that ARE trying to implement a revenue based system are making things so complicated (I know AC has not put anything in place yet)

Make it simple-If you spend X dollars in a quarter then you are upgraded automatically for the subsequent quarter as long as you are on T+ and above. Obviously if one only flies T+ then you would have to have a ton of BIS time to qualify the next quarter. In this way the airline is encouraging you to flyu latitude and/or the occasional J in order to get those auto upgrades the subsequent quarter. By doing this they can avoid the line in the sand approach to upgrades and leave the existing FF program alone.

I am certainly open to thoughts on this but believe this is a kinder, gentler way to proceed and that it would work.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:55 am
  #11  
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Originally Posted by canadatosiberia
Main problem with your argument is that, for this to work, AC would have to dominate the skies in NA. Since they are not holding their own in Canada, let alone NA, how would you suggest that they implement this idea without losing all SE business? UA would look pretty good.

Fear mongering, mayhaps?
No. Speculation based on what's happening in the industry. UA might just look great again soon, yes.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 6:59 am
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Originally Posted by Allvest
The cost of becoming or maintaining SE would be something in the order of $40-50k per year, up from 2011 $10k and current estimated $20k per year.
I really hope the AC program managers put a bit more thought into this than you have. The decision for most of AC's "loyal" (and i use this term very loosely as their recent antics have not really endeared them to passengers and many seem to be exploring other travel options) passengers is not to up their spending from $10k to $40-50k to attain SE but to go from $10k to $0k if AC keeps changing the rules.

If you are allowed to fly paid J then there isn't really a big difference between the benefits that SE status provides vs what a paid J gets. You get priority checkin, 2 free bags, access to lounges, priority boarding and access to Concierges as paid J. Please do point out any additional benefits that SE seem to get above and beyond this? Also the eupgrade credits would be useless to someone who buys paid J as they would never be able to use them even for nominees if the lowest fare class that allows upgrades would be Latitude.

It has been pointed out repeatedly that AC J is not price competitive. You have other * choices. Also there is a big difference between Canadian and European passengers. There is a reason why LH/LX still have 3 class cabins whereas AC only has 2.

I do hope AC does not go down this path. But anything posted on this forum does tend to get implemented and this would probably be the proverbial straw that breaks the camels back.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 7:00 am
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Originally Posted by JPCAG
On a separate but related matter, the E-upgrade system is very good for domestic flights on AC metal but it is of absolutely no use for TPAC and perhaps only slightly better than no use for TATL
Flying YVR->YYZ/YUL->FRA and back, I've had pretty good success so far this year. I think I've been upgraded 4 times TATL so far, which is pretty good.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 7:00 am
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Allvest
No. Speculation based on what's happening in the industry. UA might just look great again soon, yes.
for a while, until UA gets enhanced as well.

I dont know where you get $10-$20k a year to fly 100k. If costs me about $2.5k-$3k to get 1P year after year.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 7:12 am
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Originally Posted by rankourabu
for a while, until UA gets enhanced as well.

I dont know where you get $10-$20k a year to fly 100k. If costs me about $2.5k-$3k to get 1P year after year.
Race to the bottom baby! First one to implement a frequent flyer plan with negative benefits wins!!
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