Originally Posted by gudugan

This is pretty simple:

If you believe Zero Covid will fail, then the logical move is to shift the messaging and eventually open up (like in the above quoted WSJ article). Based on Hong Kong this probability is more likely than not.

If you believe Zero Covid won’t fail, then you keep locking down everything again. However there are other confounding factors like the rest of the world is opening up, local property markets, etc.

The dumb part is if they get stuck in the middle (Zero Covid fails, but they don’t open it up) ie. Hong Kong. If you look at New Zealand, they just dropped all the quarantine requirements because there are more cases inside the country than out and are accelerating the border reopening timeline.