I ended up with the Aspire this May after starting out with the no AF Hilton AMEX card, and skipped the Surpass (for now), and my credit isn't amazing, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Goal is to have one card available for upgrade path, no- AF->Surpass->Aspire and to collect all three card bonuses via signup AND the two card upgrade bonuses, but I am willing to be patient about it to stop the dreaded popup. I might settle on any of no-AF/Surpass/Aspire once the dust settles and I know how I will use them the next couple of years.
I look at the people doing a
million in MS on Hilton Aspire/Surpass because of 12 bonuses and basically... don't want to go there (I want a long term card relationship with AMEX as long as the deal on offer is reasonable for both of us, not to burn them for SUBs and MS). Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered, etc.