I reckon QF will avoid refunds as far as possible. The flight cancellations still allow for flights to/from HKG - it’s just that you’ll fly ~ 12 hours earlier or later than originally planned.
But, I have had a refund of award points for a (IIRC) 15 min schedule change SYD-LDH a few years ago. So YMMV.
just as an update, QF refunded my full itinery without charge without questions... it was QF98 they moved me to a flight 1 day later. i think protocol is as long as flught was cancelled by QF (and not a "delay") that was enough to trigger refund request.
this worked well because i didnt want to travel anymore due to virus but they were adament HK was not covered by waivier... thx to capacity reduction i got out of jail free...
if i DO want to travel, i can book exact same itinery 15pct cheaper (even this was booked half a year ago during sale) and.if i do so now.i get double SC also (which is less relavent cuz this ia family trip on economy)
word of advice - wait till weekday daytime when Premium phone agent is working... i avoided calling on weekend cuz its staffed by work experience donkeys and.u cant get anything done on weekends. my Platinum status may have helped