Originally Posted by
readywhenyouare
Well I hope you will share that with Boeing. I would hate for them to waste all that time and money on something that won't sell well. I'm sure your market studies will put theirs to shame. BTW, what do you think of the A330neo? It certainly looks to be a dog in terms of sales.
Well lets see, since the 777 was launched Boeing has (a) declined to invest in a new narrow body to replace the overstretched 737 line in favor of a dog of a plane - the 739er, (b) tried to avoid the expense of a new program by "risk sharing" at the same time trying to stick it to its employees with the 787, that did not go well, then (c) tried to avoid investing in a new very large plane, instead re-engining the 747 to create the 747-8 (sales have not been so hot...) and then (d) elected to sit on its hands about a new narrow-body (see point (a)) while Airbus lapped them by announcing the neo program.
A long series of misteps have really put Boeing behind the 8-ball. As I showed above they have been crushed in the neo vs. MAX fight (6000 units vs 4000 units, with many of Boeings sales being to outfits which may never take the planes) and they are being crushed in the larger space (the A321 vs. MAX9/10 is not really a contest). Airbus has issues (they lack a competitive plane in the space between the 190 seats on the A321 to the 275+ seats on the A350-9) but they are less severe than Boeing's issues.
I just don't think that a small twin is the answer. The plane will have high capital costs, yet the economics of small twins have never worked out well as more efficient single aisles have undercut them at the low end and the larger version then sells much better, killing off the smaller version (see 762/763, 788/789, A358/359) the only smaller version that has sold relatively well over time is the A332, but there the neo version has not sold well (only HA bought it). I just think the 797 will end up being a nitch A/C, and you don't spend $15B to develop a nitch A/C.
A well written piece on the limits of the small widebody approach is here:
https://leehamnews.com/2017/05/10/ai...ll-boeing-797/ feel free to rebut it, if you can.
Originally Posted by
readywhenyouare
So if the price difference between the 739 and 321 was negligible then why not just go with all 321's? No need to further complicate a complicated fleet.
Delta ordered the 739er in 2011. They have slightly added to the order (I think they ended up with 130 vs the original 100 ordered) but this was the result of using up credit from canceling the 787 order. The Delta order for the A321 (30 of them) dates from 2013, and was added to in 2014, then 2016 and I think they will get 122 of them. The 100 airplane A321neo order is from December of 2017.
It is an interesting question why DL - having ordered a lot of 739ers went with a similar sized A/C from airbus. Perhaps it was a timing issue, perhaps Airbus offered a price that was too good to be passed up to get their foot in the door (the original 30 were ordered with the 330s), but at this point Delta has kept ordering the Airbus and (other than using up credit with Boeing) not the 739er. Everything I hear says that the Airbus is preferred by passengers, and this is what Delta had to say about the most recent order:
“The A321 is fast becoming a
favorite aircraft of our customers and employees,” said Delta senior vice president of supply chain management and fleet Greg May. He said the operating economics and capacity for customers “make it a great fit” for domestic flights.
Delta again adds to order for Airbus A321 jets