USHPNWDLUA

Could accelerating the wide body deliveries also signal the oft-expected (hoped?) move by UA to drop orders for the A350 in favor of more 777 orders? Or, could it all be dependent on a deal to be worked with Boeing irrespective of the Airbus orders?

I'm gonna miss the queen of the skies. My favorite memory of the 747 was flying the -400 in to NRT on NWA, the switching to the -200 and climbing the spiral staircase to the really small upstairs with the old recliner that was somehow more comfortable than the angle lie flat I had just been in for 12 hours, and ordering the Champagne supper on the 4 hour flight to HKG.

nerdbirdsjc

There's no good reason for United to drop its A350 orders....in fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a top-up order in connection with accelerated 747 retirements.

transportbiz

It's quite a down gauge from a 747-8 or an A380 which is the direction the others are taking.

username

How would this affect the pilots' pay and seniority? If the 747 pilots go to another aircraft type, do they get paid less and go lower on the seniority list?

nerdbirdsjc

1. The Boeing 747 pax version has essentially completed its lifespan. True, BA, Lufty, Air China and a few others might keep some pax fleets around for a few more years, but they are doing so at substantial cost which they can defray due to large in-house mx operations which also happen to in-source a lot of business.

2. A 744 -> 77W move is hardly a downgauge (and could possibly result in capacity increases). Depending on precise configuration, United should be within +/- 5 seats between the two aircraft types...and if UA opts for densification, it can get to 400+ seats on a 77W with little effort.

3. In general, North American carriers have greater flexibility on longhaul aircraft types than many legacy peers elsewhere in the world. This is a function of 1) geography, and 2) typically more flexible cost structures among our airlines. Other airlines may operate A380s, for example, more as a mark of corporate "failure" than as a manifestation of industry success.

That said, there remains some need for US carriers to operate VLAs, and for UA, that's where 77W/35Js come in.

nerdbirdsjc

Not really....new orders for both aircraft types have essentially ground to a halt for the past few years.

transportbiz

Very true, the A380 seems to have been a everyone who wanted it, basically has it now. Orders began in 2001, and have dwindled to nothing as of this year, but 42 orders were placed in 2013. It's had a long run, and shouldn't be surprising it's petering out. But, with 319 total orders and AirBus still has only delivered 180, it's hard to say this aircraft isn't going to be around for a long time.

777X order book is pretty strong. No doubt about it the direction is twin-engine, but you can't tell me 748's that have been delivered in the past few years to LH, KE, AC (someone said BA, but Boeing doesn't list them as a customer) will be retired anytime soon. LH in particular has provided a glowing review of that aircraft.

Boeing says the 777 is capable of 396 seats and the 748 is capable of 475 seats. 80 more pax isn't insignificant.

nerdbirdsjc

Lufthansa and Air China both cancelled some of their 747-8 deliveries, at fairly late stages to boot. If they decide to keep them long-term, they will face exorbitant maintenance costs as the mx "footprint" required to keep the fleet operational worldwide is borne on a steadily shrinking set of suppliers and operators.

The 777-300ER is already operating longhaul flights at over 450 seats with some operators, including Air Canada. Recall that the 777-9 will be even larger than the 777-300ER, so a 500-seat configuration rivaling 748/380 won't be a problem if desired. In short, twin-engine widebodies now effectively offer as much usable capacity as quads, and do so more efficiently. As a result, the 744s are goners, and 748/380 will be very rare outside of a narrowing band of operators.

buckeyefanflyer

There was a time in the early 1970's during the energy crisis for a brief time United flew a 747 between Cleveland and Miami. The aircraft came from JFK and flew over my house. I used to watch for this plane many days. My first time on a 747 was from ORD to LAX.

TA

It's a nice sentiment, but I think the number of people on a 747 that actually made the decision to fly it because of the aircraft type can generally be counted on one hand. And not enough to even appear on the list of priorities of a US airline's operating considerations.

PsiFighter37

I doubt the 748s will be retired, but it's quite telling that Boeing has had zero success getting passenger airlines to buy the aircraft, with the recent (small) orders being for freight flying. It definitely feels like the 747 line may well be on its deathbed.

transportbiz

Look, I'm only going by what Boeing says, and consider them to be the authority on their aircraft and business. I can't see any booked cancellation of orders by either CA or LH, CA ordered 7 aircraft and has received 7 aircraft. LH ordered 19 and has received 19. Arik Air ordered 2 in 2011, and hasn't received them...so that might not be filled.
KE ordered 10 in 2009 and apparently delayed delivery, not receiving their first one till 2015, and still has 5 undelivered. Transaero ordered 4, and since they have gone bankrupt, those 4 will most likely be scrubbed.

I'm not saying you can't cram 500 15" seats with a 28" pitch, into a 777-300, because I'm sure you can. I do know I will not fly it. But, you can probably also cram 1,000+ seats into an A380, thank god so far no one has.

NikoLGA

Not trying to one up you, but since we are being precise, I think the official name for the version Lufthansa uses is the 747-8i.

wxguy

Yes, that's the "sub-type," along with 787-8F for the freighter version.

Boeing's 747-8 page.

JNelson113

Yes. Personally I avoid it because I'm more often than not in Y.