SIN-DEL-YYZ

http://leehamnews.com/2015/07/14/air...-900lr-likely/

SQ might push Airbus for a A350-900LR. Unlike the 77L, which is basically a 77W with the 772 fuselage, the A359LR would be an "improved" version of the A359, increasing MTOW by 12 tonnes and adding 18,000 L of fuel. Boeing is still producing the 77L and is looking for buyers. A few weeks ago, EK was said to be in discussions with Boeing for an additional 15-20 77Ls. Next year, the 77W is scheduled to be given the option of a Performance Improvement Package, reducing fuel burn by an additional two per cent. This PIP also applies to the 77L. The 77L has much better performance and fuel burn compared to the A345. However, the 77L would have to be delivered with the aft fuel tanks to make EWR-SIN. I expect Boeing to push hard for SQ to, at the minimum, lease this latest version of the 77L before the 778X can be delivered next decade. The 777-8X already has sold better than the 77L. SQ might be able to secure rather favourable terms since Boeing needs to finish out the 77L/77W line. While the A359 will undoubtedly be improved overtime, I doubt Airbus will try to convert this into a A359LR, considering the ME3 is already locked in with the 778X for ULH flying. If SQ had their way, they would have Airbus begin the A359LR programme but Boeing might offer them a short term solution that they can't refuse.

I agree Boeing has a better chance of closing SQ for some 77L's, even if they are leased. If I was SQ I wouldn't rush into any airbus plane that isn't already in the air, especially after the A380 launch customer problems.

I have my doubts that Airbus will move ahead with a A350LR and instead will steadily improve the A359's performance overtime just like the A333. When the A333 was first delivered, it only could perform short transatlantic runs. The latest A333, recently delivered to DL, will have capability to do missions of up to 13 hours. The ball is in SQ's court. They have decide whether they would rather wait years before Airbus improves the A359 enough to do SIN-LAX/EWR or take a five year lease of 77L, with the final PIP before the 77X, that Boeing rather desperately wants to manufacture before the 77X line starts running. The earliest SQ could obtain the 777-8X is likely 2022 as priority will be given for the 777-9X, which I suspect SQ is very interested in ordering.

Since QR is the launch customer for both versions of the A350, they could have gone to Airbus and asked for an ULH of the A359. But they, like EY and EK, didn't. The failure of the A340-500 as a fuel tanker rather than a passenger plane still sticks in the minds of the former A345 operators. They picked Boeing and Boeing responded with the 777-8X, which can hold almost as many passengers as the 77W but have slightly longer range than the 77L. I'd argue its pretty much too late for Airbus to launch a A350LR since the prime operators of the already niche ULH have gone for the 777-8X. Right now the 777-8X has outsold the 77L and Boeing still wants to sell more 77Ls.

SQ's best option to restart SIN-LAX/EWR soon is to lease the 77L starting in 2017 and operate them until the 777-8X becomes available in the early 2020s. Given low fuel prices are likely to last for a while and the 77L's much better performance record, SQ could make SIN-LAX/EWR work. These planes do JNB-ATL, despite the altitude of JNB and the length of the flight, profitably as noted by DL executives. The real question for SQ going forward is whether operating a rather large fleet of A380s is a profitable venture or should the airline consider downgauging to the 777-9X. QF is already considering the 777-9X to replace their A380s.