timetosave

Hi,
I'm trying to find a rhyme or reason for how Delta handles waitlisting on international flights.

I am a Silver Medallion and recently took advantage of the 1 mile upgrade to BE promotion (for higher class coach fares) for a trip to SYD. At the time I booked my flight, I got a confirmed BE upgrade from LAX to SYD. My return leg was waitlisted but then cleared a few days later (when the flight was ~30+ days out).
I decided to stay out here a little bit longer so just extended my return flight by a week. Again, I am waitlisted for BE on the long haul flight. When I call Delta they say its because there are no Z seats available.

What I do know:
- When I search to buy a BE ticket from SYD to LAX on a day I am looking to fly on (Sept 4, 5 or 6) it shows 30+ seats available. I understand this can't be trusted but this seems to be the most data I can find. On the day of departure for my outbound fight (LAX - SYD), I checked the business class availability and it showed tons of empty seats. However, the BE cabin was full and I'm pretty sure it was mostly non-revs.
- If I call Delta now and ask for the confirmed BE upgrade availability for a flight tomorrow or the next day from SYD to LAX it is available. I have observed this same behavior for the last week or so.

What I'm wondering:
- How did my first return leg get a confirmed upgrade so far out (30+ days) ? Delta says its likely that someone in a Z class fare cancelled their ticket and so it opened up for me.
- It sounds like Delta's revenue department decides when to open up these Z fares. Are there certain time windows when they take a look at things? If I had to guess I would say it looks like they start to open up more Z seats 2-3 days before a flight departs. I'm hoping someone here with more experience can speak to this.
- Is there anything else I should be trying to do to get this upgrade. I have considered some other sites (ie,. seatcounter, expertflyer) but don't see how this will help as I think it will show 0 Z seats available just like Delta is telling me.

I usually fly to Australia on United, but thought I would give Delta a shot to try out the new BE + it was perfect timing with the 1 mile BE upgrade promotion. As Premier with United I was able to purchase an upgrade the day of departure (~$800 each way). However, it didn't matter what type of coach class ticket I purchased. I figured it would be slightly cheaper buying a M fare with Delta and getting a confirmed upgrade for at least one leg.

One thing that is frustrating and I think its echoed here by the new PMUs as well, is that the airlines make it very difficult to get confirmed upgrades ahead of time. When I booked my tickets with United there was NEVER any availability for using miles to upgrade and they wanted $18,000 for a business class ticket!! Of course not many people are paying this in this economy so they end up just selling upgrades at the gate for ~$1000. Why not just let your "loyal customers" get these upgrades ahead of time?

I believe this one mile promotion is essentially the same things as a free PMU (okay, it cost 2 whole miles) so I'm looking this as sort of a PMU test drive. I should easily be able to make Platinum this year with some of the travel I have planned. I'm starting to wonder if I would have been better off trying to make 1K on United because of the SWUs (and I'm in the DC area).

Any additional insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

DLfan

Think again about Expert Flyer. You can set up an alert for the flight on which you are waitlisted and will be notified by email as soon as Z inventory is available. This is important, because these alerts generally show up before Delta gets around to processing the waitlist. If you call while Z inventory is still available (and before they clear the waitlist), you get the seat.

Otherwise, you seem to have a pretty good handle on how this all works. I do wonder, however, if Delta will still let you upgrade the return using the 1 mile promo. You changed the flight you booked that was eligible and the promo period is now over. Next time to speak you them, I would confirm this...just to be certain.

RobertS975

I agree with DLfan and would be very wary of the computers allowing a 1 mile upgrade even when and if the Z opens up. I am not sure how that will work. It is a change to a flight that already had been upgraded, so maybe the new upgrade will be "grandfathered". But don't be surprised when you are asked: "How would you like to pay for that upgrade, sir?" at the airport.

timetosave

Thanks DLfan,
I may sign up for the expertflyer travel... just a matter of when to sign up for the 5 day trial to test it.
I had this same concern when I originally booked my ticket and they assured me that as long as the flight was booked before the promotion ended I could change dates on the return leg and still use the 1 mile promotion. I have confirmed this when I call and I imagine this is the case, as I am currently waitlisted and only had 1 mile deducted.

timetosave

As an update. I logged in to view my itinerary a few days ago and instead of showing wait listed for BE, it said "Reservation: Call Delta" for my BE SYD > LAX segment. This was in addition to the confirmed segment in coach. I called Delta and they were able to choose a seat in BE and confirmed that this was under the 1 mile upgrade to BE promotion. After the call, it shows me confirmed in BE and I can choose my seat online as well!
So it looks like maybe Delta may start clearing the wait list 7 days out before a flight?

DLPhoenix

Congratulations for getting your upgrade.

Don't bother trying to find a logic patern in the art (or should I call this black magic) of revenue management.
The 1 mile upgrade promo seems to indicate a shift from last year's aproach. I would assume they beleive that in the current economy the additional revenue they make on people buying M rather than LUT is bigger than the revenue lost to people buying M+upgrade rather than I/S.

DLP

apados

I was actually wondering about this. So does G/Z inventory become more/less available as Delta sees fit? And ExpertFlyer does (I'm assuming) automated (hourly/daily) checks?

I've been on the fence with regards to ExpertFlyer... It may push me over the top with this :-)

ResSalesGuy

We got an internal memo and are honoring the 1mile upg for the ret portion as long as the changed flts still fit within the parameters of the orig Promo...I cant remember the end date...15 Sep? ...Anyway, you can thank Wperks for this...We immediately bombarded them with question on day 1 of this promo and this was agreed upon at that time....Maybe its time things got more customer friendly? :-)....
As fare as RMS....There is no rhyme or reason...I think they use the "magic 8-ball" to decide if they think the seats can be sold...then they tend to release 1-2 at a time and see how long they sit there before they are snapped up.....A few days before, most inventory is dumped in the system to allow bkng....

Forgive my ignorance, but is Expert Flyer something you actually pay for?
So its a Revenue mgmt type analytical tool?

DLfan

Yes...there is really no discernable pattern as to when G/Z inventory is released. EF definitely does automated checks; but, I'm really not certain of the frequency. Based on my own anecdotal evidence with EF; however, I think it must check many times a day.

Yes, it is a subscription based service.

timetosave

Thanks for all the responses. Just to wrap up my original post. I ended up changing my return date yet again (got stuck in NZ). When I called the day before my scheduled flight, I was able to change my flight to the next day or the day after that. Both options had confirmed BE! So I am convinced they start releasing more Z inventory the 3 days leading up to the flight. I think I changed my return flight 3 or 4 times so I was thankful for the M ticket which was fully changeable with no fees.

Just have to make Platinum now so I can do this again in the future. The partnership with Virgin Blue should be nice as well.