AftOf245

I am quite positive Lanc was MH, his original office faced the Air Museum in YYC and the Lancaster, hence the alias. He has had so many, but he never changed his writing styles. No, I was not Lancaster, I was AftOf245 on AEF.
The name he used pre Danny is on the tip of my tongue. Following is one of MH (lancasters) posts on AEF:

Very poor grammar, however the use of the ...... is consistent???

parnel

Why don't you reprove it in your own funny math..........which is to just slag AC for any old reason.Always adds up in your book

Sebring

Lunicus

I knew all of his aliases.

Curious that Lancaster also disappeared from AEF the day AC brought the lawsuit.

Q Shoe Guy

It's all in the syntax, style, word usage etc. It's a signature! Have one of Academic's learned friends do a side by side comparison........better yet just check the IP location.

As an aside, it certainly has made for interseting reading this AM and brought out the best in many of you.I see no reason to chase this poster away as it's refreshing to read another side..........just my 2 yen!


Whyfly, how could you be board in China? Go out and have some accupuncture or get a bowl dumplings........you need padding on that skinny ...!

Stranger

Can you do that on FT? How?

YYZC2

I stopped going to AEF when they went to a PPV model. Sounds like it might be worth the price of admission...

Sebring

Trust me, there are things I know... Mark was ever the formula-driven strategist, and he always had his charts, mathematical formulas and Ouija board off of which he would predict the cash remaining at this airline or the quarterly result of that airline. I don't know of anyone in this industry who is not inside AC or WS that would break down an airline's costs like this dude does. Sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong. But while it's easy to understand an LCC's costs, it's harder to understand AC's cost and revenues because of any number of factors - leasing deals, currency exchange, maintenance contract, Aeroplan revenues, etc.

It's the official mantra at WS that no one shall ever analyze the industry - in public - as anything but a cost equation. By simplifying the world into a cost-only equation, WS will always look better than AC. However, airline A can make more money than Airline B even if Airline B has lower costs. It's all about the spread between each airline's revenues and expenses.

So you can make statements as he does that WS' rate of load factor improvement is greater than AC's, but so what. First, the difference is fractional, secondly, it reflects the demise of SG and third, it reflects how much lower WS' load factor was to begin with. It has nothing to do, however, with profitability. You can have a 90% load factor and lose money, and a 60% load factor and make money. It's all about the excess of revenues over expenses. How high is your yield? On the revenue side, WS just doesn't want to get into a discussion.

You cannot talk about traffic growth independently of revenues. I guarantee you that I can achieve a 99% load factor on each and every flight if I am giving away the product.

What always gives my friend away is a lack of humility, the "Westjet-uber-alles" mentality. We certainly see it here again with this poster. Most WS people I know aren't arrogant or stupid enough to predict the demise of AC. But it's another matter in the executive suite.

airbus320

It is a a condition known as the Clive syndrome and like many viruses it is transmitted airborne.

Overwing

Hey genious, I think you have been reading a few to many WJ press releases.

Quite obviously you have not been watching the sordid pitiful tale of WJ in the eastern triangle, or even more laughable the vaunted WJ Transborder expansion.

Just wait for the next chapter in December when they give Mai Tai land a go.

Rumors abound that Signature Holidays are about to repatriate some flying from WJ to Sky Service. And if the Transat contract ever goes bye bye, watch the crying start, there will not be enough provincial revenue guarantees around to keep things afloat.

negotiator

Overwing,

What's the latest on the Red Pilots for seniorty justice. When is the CIRB hearing the case?

Cheers

WR Cage

The triangle has challenges for Westjet, but Westjet is not trying to be a business person’s airline and go head to head with AC. It may take longer and cost more money to be a player in the triangle than originally thought, but the airline is not willing to let the triangle be the gravestone.

Hawaii service will likely work unless operational challenges (unusually high winds, ETOPS restrictions, etc) force a re-decision. AC is mostly focused on the HNL-SYD portion of their HNL service and is not likely to heavily discount the YVR-HNL portion. IIRC there is only one true YVR-HNL flight per day (out of three) plus YVR-OGG a couple of times per week. Nobody is having good flights for Alberta-Hawaii (i.e. non-stops), the Westjet service is competitive and BC and AB are home markets.

The Transat contract is the larger of the two by far. Transat also locked in for the next two years and Westjet is benefiting from fuel price adjustments as the contract provided for price increases if fuel costs increase.

Work going to Sky Service from Westjet could be for many reasons. Westjet might not be able to fly the charter work if the Boeing strike impacts their deliveries.

Signature could be balking at the fuel surcharges and deciding to go elsewhere with greater seating density. Sky Service aircraft can fit more bodies into similar airplanes so the fuel surcharge is less per pax.

Coffeebean

Why can't you guys / girls simply answer the question? Is it that difficult? Surely there must be an answer that makes sense.

Sebring, you seem to have a solid handle on the industry, why don't you take a crack at it. You have to admit, it does seem a little odd, but perhaps you have the explanation.

Wasn't it a Python sketch that started with: "I didn't expect the spanish inquisition"!!!

AnselmAdorne

"Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition. Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope, and nice red uniforms ..."

Thanks for the memory.

I'm enjoying the debate.

Shareholder

I'm glad I scored in the top quintile when I did my math SAT, so I can understand this marvelous formula. Which indeed does explain why any LCC will lick the pants off any legacy carrier operating in the NAmerican environment. It is a no-brainer that union contracts and other aspects of such operations will mean domestic and transborder ops will never make money. But like CX and SQ, not to mention BA and LH and QF, having a vast network of long haul overseas routes changes the entire dynamics of the numbers game, and off-sets any losses on the domestic front.

WestJet's problem now is that it is a one-trick pony. It has nowhere to grow and operates a fleet that is too large [in seats per aircraft] to accommodate the $5 increases that will plague the industry through the balance of the decade. Nor does it have, as others have pointed out, the various other business centres that ACE has been developing. RM knows a NAmerican legacy carrier cannot survive on its continental airline service, but he also knows that a profitable overseas network, as well as cultivating several profitable service divisions, will keep the core operation on this continent in a competitive position. But as WestJet's margins continue to deteriorate, it has nowhere else to go to augmenting revenues and profits.

Interlining and joining ONEWORLD will mean WestJet must incur new costs. And to really capture the higher yield travellers, business class amenities are a must. WestJet cannot afford to go that route. And the mythical numbers of Canadians who have never flown are just that. Canadians actually fly more per capita than Americans and Europeans.

The numbers and formulae stated in the earlier posts may be crack on, but they don't reflect the true margins of longhaul overseas routes, nor the myriad of other divisions that contribute to ACE's bottom line.

If this is indeed, the estemed Mr. Hill, then he has exposed himself with a certain mathematical myopia. When you only want to look at one-third of the picture, you're really missing the whole story.

Cargoagent

But to look at the whole story would subvert the whole premise of the OP. He will never admit that WJ is in a more difficult position going forward than ACE.