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WS Strategy Discussion in Profit Share Presentation

WS Strategy Discussion in Profit Share Presentation

Old Nov 24, 2023, 5:33 pm
  #1  
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WS Strategy Discussion in Profit Share Presentation

Alexis gave a few more details of the future strategy, during the first company Profit Share event since before the pandemic: https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/news/2...wards-everyone
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 10:24 am
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Being among the apparent minority who are prepared to pay a bit more for a reasonable level of comfort, convenience and reliability, Im not feeling very inspired by what I see here.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 10:44 am
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Originally Posted by Sopwith
Being among the apparent minority who are prepared to pay a bit more for a reasonable level of comfort, convenience and reliability, Im not feeling very inspired by what I see here.
This paragraph?

Our strategy of adding ULCC-style fares and products within our mainline aircraft is designed to give us flexibility to serve all Canadians, even the ultra-price sensitive ones, and to do so profitably. Once introduced in the new year, we will have a ULCC type product onboard our existing fleet of 180 aircraft. This allows us to easily offer an equivalent ULCC capacity of 50 Boeing 737 sized aircraft, while providing each market with an appropriately sized offering. As we receive deliveries of our MAX10 aircraft, starting next year, we will gain an unbeatable seat-cost advantage, as these aircraft provide the most seating of any narrow-body aircraft in Canada with 212 seats.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 11:15 am
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As we receive deliveries of our MAX10 aircraft, starting next year, we will gain an unbeatable seat-cost advantage, as these aircraft provide the most seating of any narrow-body aircraft in Canada with 212 seats.

Please, for the love of God, plan on adding at least one or two more washrooms for the Y cabin, preferably around row 4!
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 12:33 pm
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Originally Posted by Sopwith
Being among the apparent minority who are prepared to pay a bit more for a reasonable level of comfort, convenience and reliability, Im not feeling very inspired by what I see here.
The new layout in the 737-8 & -800 will actually have more seats you can pay for the extra legroom in, 48 (+12 in J), it is just that 3 of the rows in front of the over-wing exits and all rows behind the wing will have less pitch than the current layout (120 seats in total). The 737-10 will have 54 (+12 in J) extra legroom seats for a fee and 146 with the minimum pitch.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 5:20 pm
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Originally Posted by aerobod
The new layout in the 737-8 & -800 will actually have more seats you can pay for the extra legroom in, 48 (+12 in J), it is just that 3 of the rows in front of the over-wing exits and all rows behind the wing will have less pitch than the current layout (120 seats in total). The 737-10 will have 54 (+12 in J) extra legroom seats for a fee and 146 with the minimum pitch.
Okay, good I guess.

What I see in the paragraph quoted by YVR Cockroach, distilled into one sentence and translated into plain English is, Were going to make more money by cramming more people into more airplanes.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 6:32 pm
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Originally Posted by YYCguy
Please, for the love of God, plan on adding at least one or two more washrooms for the Y cabin, preferably around row 4!
a Captain just worked with advised the cabin config on the Max10 is under review at HQ. Dear god I hope so; and cant agree with you more. Y can already be a nightmare on -800 / Max8 on Mexico flights with just 174 seats. Lineup stretching fwd of Exit for aft lavs is not unheard of.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 6:45 pm
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Originally Posted by Sopwith
Okay, good I guess.

What I see in the paragraph quoted by YVR Cockroach, distilled into one sentence and translated into plain English is, Were going to make more money by cramming more people into more airplanes.
That is definitely an aim when covering the leisure market. Dont forget on a 737 leisure route a 737-8 or 737-800 will have 189 seats in a typical ULCC config. No airlines in Canada have bought the 737-8-200 yet, it can have up to 210 seats at single class 28 pitch (Ryanair is configuring theirs at 199 seats to avoid adding another flight attendant). WS is also not taking the 737-10 to the maximum 230 seat single class config, but other than the 66 upgraded seats, the other 146 will be 28 pitch. https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/

Even with Rouge, AC is not competing strongly on a lot of the WS/WO/WG leisure routes, especially in Western Canada. There seems to be a new stratification in the market developing. Initially I thought WS could be squeezed out of the market from both sides - ULCC on the low end and Legacy on the high end, now I think they have a very good chance of defending and even increasing their market share with the new strategy and aircraft configs.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 6:50 pm
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Originally Posted by Fisch
a Captain just worked with advised the cabin config on the Max10 is under review at HQ. Dear god I hope so; and can’t agree with you more. Y can already be a nightmare on -800 / Max8 on Mexico flights with just 174 seats. Lineup stretching fwd of Exit for aft lavs is not unheard of.
A 3rd in Y is really needed. I believe there is an option with the -10 with the rear bulkhead moved further into the tail and increasing the space available there to still have cart storage and kitchen space as much as in an -800, but add an extra lavatory there. I believe the Ryanair 737-8-200 have both rear lavatories there, behind the rear exits.
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Old Nov 25, 2023, 8:41 pm
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Originally Posted by Sopwith
Okay, good I guess.

What I see in the paragraph quoted by YVR Cockroach, distilled into one sentence and translated into plain English is, Were going to make more money by cramming more people into more airplanes.
Read the actual article. What it says is ULCCs business model is to cram more people into more airplanes. Because of Canadas size, theres definitely a market for that but not enough to fill economical planes, so we have an advantage because we can cater to that market in part of the plane but also have sell-up opportunities to offer more comfort.
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Old Nov 26, 2023, 12:26 am
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Originally Posted by Sopwith
Being among the apparent minority who are prepared to pay a bit more for a reasonable level of comfort, convenience and reliability, Im not feeling very inspired by what I see here.
The "strategy" still sounds like an attempt to be all things to all people, which never works.
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Old Nov 26, 2023, 8:36 am
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Originally Posted by TravellingChris
The "strategy" still sounds like an attempt to be all things to all people, which never works.
it has been working for them since the strategy was put into effect earlier this year. I don’t know the exact amount of the profit share, but the employees I know were quite happy. Their profit share payments are based on 6 months of profitability.

It doesn’t seem their aim is to be all things to all people if you read the press releases, they are not specifically catering to business travellers anymore, for example.

Making a profit on the highest revenue in corporate history (3Q2023) doesn’t sound like a fail to me: https://news.paxeditions.com/news/ai...eaking-quarter, but there are always people hoping organisations will fail for their own personal reasons.
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Old Nov 26, 2023, 9:03 am
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Originally Posted by Fisch
a Captain just worked with advised the cabin config on the Max10 is under review at HQ.
I find it strange that the initial LOPA for the Max-10 only has 12 Premium seats (same as the Max-8). While loads and yields are different things, they seem to have no problem filling Premium on their leisure routes, often in advance (perhaps revenue management isn't getting the fares quite right?). Assuming that they're making money from their Premium seats, adding more on their busiest routes would seem to make sense.
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Old Nov 26, 2023, 9:03 am
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Originally Posted by aerobod
it has been working for them since the strategy was put into effect earlier this year. I dont know the exact amount of the profit share, but the employees I know were quite happy. Their profit share payments are based on 6 months of profitability.

It doesnt seem their aim is to be all things to all people if you read the press releases, they are not specifically catering to business travellers anymore, for example.

Making a profit on the highest revenue in corporate history (3Q2023) doesnt sound like a fail to me: https://news.paxeditions.com/news/ai...eaking-quarter, but there are always people hoping organisations will fail for their own personal reasons.
The strategy has only been in effect for less than a year. Short-term success during a year with a lot of pent-up demand due to COVID is no guarantee of future results. Remember, WS only recently reached a new collective agreement with pilots which significantly increased its labour costs. The company is also facing rising competition from rapidly-expanding operators like Flair and Lynx on some of its most popular routes, both domestic and sun.

The fact that WS delivered profit-sharing is no guarantee that the company (which is privately owned and thus does not have to make full public disclosures) is actually as healthy as it claims. Sears Canada paid out special dividends only a few years before it went out of business completely.

WestJet's messaging, however, has been so brilliant that apparently even ex-employees are unquestioningly accepting of everything the company says and does. It's like former staff of the Trump White House vehemently insisting that the administration wasn't dysfunctional.
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Old Nov 26, 2023, 9:27 am
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Originally Posted by TravellingChris
The strategy has only been in effect for less than a year. Short-term success during a year with a lot of pent-up demand due to COVID is no guarantee of future results. Remember, WS only recently reached a new collective agreement with pilots which significantly increased its labour costs. The company is also facing rising competition from rapidly-expanding operators like Flair and Lynx on some of its most popular routes, both domestic and sun.

The fact that WS delivered profit-sharing is no guarantee that the company (which is privately owned and thus does not have to make full public disclosures) is actually as healthy as it claims. Sears Canada paid out special dividends only a few years before it went out of business completely.

WestJet's messaging, however, has been so brilliant that apparently even ex-employees are unquestioningly accepting of everything the company says and does. It's like former staff of the Trump White House vehemently insisting that the administration wasn't dysfunctional.
I have actually been critical and doubtful of some of the WS direction over the past couple of years (stating I was doubtful they could survive a pilot strike over 3 months, for example), but being a pragmatic analyst, I feel comfortable they are now on the right track, based on my own analysis of airline economics, not on what they are telling me. It was obvious that the Trump WH and Sears were in trouble at the time if any rational analysis was done (as was stated by those who did the analysis at the time). Just stating "WS is doomed to fail" without any reasoned analysis doesn't strengthen a position. A rational analyis of estimates on why they can't make money with their new strategy would be be a start.

The reason why they have the new and profitable position (assuming it is if Onex as a public company is approving the WS press releases, otherwise they would be committing fraud) is due to the pivot to counter Flair and Lynx head on, as opposed to some of the route retraction AC has done in the West.
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