http://au.sys-con.com/node/827315

Looking for the raw data...

The raw data should be interesting indeed - much better without the SPIN in the current press release

I see surprisingly little SPIN one way or the other in the press I've been reading. Even a.net seems to be pretty quiet about it.

I think the wolves ober there are waiting for the fresh red meat to be released.

The headline amount looks pretty big. I'm interested to read some analysis once the numbers are parsed.

Oh, like the legacy airlines aren't getting their shorts handed to them in this environment? Hell, even WN wasn't able to keep their streak of profitable quarters going.

Yeah, big surprise, VX starting a new airline with a) huge increases in fuel costs followed by b) the worst recession in 50+ years is likely to lose money. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

http://industry.bnet.com/travel/1000...antial-losses/

That doesn't look good AT ALL. The fact that they've been hovering around 50-60 million dollars in losses per quarter as they've expanded operations (and even if you knocked fuel costs in half, it would still be 25-30 million) can't be a good sign.

This kind of explains why they are going slow with the expansions, though- they have to be blowing through cash like crazy.

Net Margin: -216%(Q3 2007) -176%(Q4 2007) -98%(Q1 2008) -70%(Q2 2008) -52%(Q3 2008)

Looks like the margin could be headed towards positive territory in the next year or so (like they keep saying).

The percentages are going down, but the absolute losses in dollars don't seem to be really budging. They can't be burning through 50 million a quarter indefinitely, or even 20-30 million with lowered fuel prices- plus if they really are at 80% loads, their only hope is that they can jack up prices quite a bit.

I am definitely surprised at how bad those data look. The margins look terrible. The Seattle and San Diego markets look very weak. If the San Diego market is so weak, i wonder whether Orange County will suffer the similar fate. i do hope that VX will stay for the long term because it definitely is an amazing airline.

The start-up numbers are expected and with the crazy fuel costs through the second quarter of 08 it can be argued that they weren't completely terrrible given the climate they were operating in.

The concerning quarter is Q3(08), where any increase in the net margin was brought about by the drop in fuel prices. Q3, or the summer, is historically the strongest quarter for airlines and shows that VX had to severly undercut their costs in order to fill their planes.

Given that we already knew that VX has requested and received 3 cash infusions we can't be surprised too much by the fact they are draining money but to see they may need another trip to uncle's pockets in this economic environment isn't heartwarming. As I've said before, their brand and superior product keep them alive where others more ordinary would be refused financing and the question is; How long can they keep going back to the well?

Yeah, not surprised, since AS and WN are more than willing to cut throats and accept very low fares on intra-CA/CA-WA routes.

Consider that on I can buy $49 walkup fares on VX on SEA-SFO within 48 hours of flight time...

If anybody's curious, the raw data is here:

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables....er%20Financial

Its all in spreadsheet form, and will take a while to understand

So long as Branson is still skimming brand royalties off the top line, he'll see to it that the equity keeps flowing. I suspect that his other airline brands also sport nasty (but, one would hope, not so nasty) financials. Operating an airline is a marketing expense to him.

You'd expect expenses to increase with volume, it is the margin that is important. They need to improve their operating efficiency (and income) enough to push that above zero. Lets hope they can keep/raise enough cash to get them there.

They can continue to expand by adding additional capacity on existing routes (with adequate demand/market) while avoiding most of the expensive setup costs associated with new routes. Adding additional routes are more expensive, but also help strengthen market share on their existing routes (connections, brand awareness etc). ...if they have the cash to burn.

How often does that data get released? I'd be interested to see how they go over the next couple quarters.