VX for sale?
#151
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,774
#152
Join Date: May 2011
Programs: AA EXP, DL Plat, VX Gold, VS Gold, HHonors Gold; SPG Gold; Marriott Gold
Posts: 238
#153
Join Date: Oct 2012
Programs: AA: EXP/5.2mm
Posts: 251
Exactly. The price that AS is paying for VX is extraordinarily high - much higher than most analysts were predicting. The reason is that there was a bidding war between AS and B9 for VX. VX was a strategic asset for both of them and they both wanted to buy it badly. They both kept bidding higher and higher until the price simply ceased to make sense for B9, at which point AS won the deal. The effect of that auction process was to produce a fantastic price for all VX shareholders, including Branson. They should all be ecstatic - they built an asset (VX) that had immense strategic value to two competing bidders and they reaped the benefit.
#154
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: ORD/MDW
Programs: BA/AA/AS/B6/WN/ UA/HH/MR and more like 'em but most felicitously & importantly MUCCI
Posts: 19,719
For VX investors, who have been patient for ten years and endured not only endless losses but erratic, inscrutable, costly route experiments, this is a golden moment.
The airline is finally making short-term money and accrued some value. We're between recessions, and there's an appetite for consolidating the B-tier domestic carriers, and there were two flush suitors calling. You bet they want out now.
Two years from now there might be any number of pull-the-plug scenarios for a stand-alone VX, from an AS-B6 merger to another oil shock, and investors would be left high and dry. Absolutely, they want to monetize before sundown.
The airline is finally making short-term money and accrued some value. We're between recessions, and there's an appetite for consolidating the B-tier domestic carriers, and there were two flush suitors calling. You bet they want out now.
Two years from now there might be any number of pull-the-plug scenarios for a stand-alone VX, from an AS-B6 merger to another oil shock, and investors would be left high and dry. Absolutely, they want to monetize before sundown.
#155
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 5,814
For VX investors, who have been patient for ten years and endured not only endless losses but erratic, inscrutable, costly route experiments, this is a golden moment.
The airline is finally making short-term money and accrued some value. We're between recessions, and there's an appetite for consolidating the B-tier domestic carriers, and there were two flush suitors calling. You bet they want out now.
Two years from now there might be any number of pull-the-plug scenarios for a stand-alone VX, from an AS-B6 merger to another oil shock, and investors would be left high and dry. Absolutely, they want to monetize before sundown.
The airline is finally making short-term money and accrued some value. We're between recessions, and there's an appetite for consolidating the B-tier domestic carriers, and there were two flush suitors calling. You bet they want out now.
Two years from now there might be any number of pull-the-plug scenarios for a stand-alone VX, from an AS-B6 merger to another oil shock, and investors would be left high and dry. Absolutely, they want to monetize before sundown.
#156
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
As to the price, I don't know if VX+AS will eventually merge with B6, but if so the winner of this "auction" will be the surviving entity of that merger. That was probably worth AS's management going all in.
The folks that run Alaska are not stupid, and they have never had a LLC mindset. When facing markets that it was needed to deployed better food, wider meal windows (for example you get food in F on SFO-SEA on AS and VX, not on UA), and to make up for the lack of IFE hand out video players in F and rent them in Y. They are a short haul airline that has been trying to adjust product wide as they added more long flights.
I expect them to preserve as much of the VX cool as they can, and my guess is that they do a form of what b6 (and European airlines) are doing, have short haul product and longer haul product.
I expect a bit of a run on the Elevate bank over the coming months, before AS announce how Elevate points will convert MileagePlan miles. There's still some sweet spots in the Elevate international partner airlines award chart, including Emirates that we was recently devalued by AS.
My question is how they combine the MM programs (which AS has), and it makes me wonder if VX keeps the miles people flew, or AS will just have to use status points in place of miles.
Exactly. The price that AS is paying for VX is extraordinarily high - much higher than most analysts were predicting. The reason is that there was a bidding war between AS and B9 for VX. VX was a strategic asset for both of them and they both wanted to buy it badly. They both kept bidding higher and higher until the price simply ceased to make sense for B9, at which point AS won the deal. The effect of that auction process was to produce a fantastic price for all VX shareholders, including Branson. They should all be ecstatic - they built an asset (VX) that had immense strategic value to two competing bidders and they reaped the benefit.
#158
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
#159
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Atlanta, GA
Programs: AA Gold,DL Gold
Posts: 858
Excellent call, give him the branson beard. Would it not be better to have Alaska brand for regional and the 737 cargo operations.
How well does Alaska work in transcon markets that are not SEA especially for premium travel. If anything Alaska has to do something about Mint and all the premium cabin legacy improvements. Otherwise they will loose whatever cachet Virgin has built.
How well does Alaska work in transcon markets that are not SEA especially for premium travel. If anything Alaska has to do something about Mint and all the premium cabin legacy improvements. Otherwise they will loose whatever cachet Virgin has built.
#160
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 5,814
Excellent call, give him the branson beard. Would it not be better to have Alaska brand for regional and the 737 cargo operations.
How well does Alaska work in transcon markets that are not SEA especially for premium travel. If anything Alaska has to do something about Mint and all the premium cabin legacy improvements. Otherwise they will loose whatever cachet Virgin has built.
How well does Alaska work in transcon markets that are not SEA especially for premium travel. If anything Alaska has to do something about Mint and all the premium cabin legacy improvements. Otherwise they will loose whatever cachet Virgin has built.
In regards to transcon, now that they will be a solid #5, they could introduce something that competes with B6's mint. Wishful thinking I know...
#161
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: East Coast, USA
Posts: 1,032
I found the following quote quite comical
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...404-story.html
Not hard to do if you are the only game in town, in Alaska...
It's like Comcast in a monopolized zone and claiming that they are the #1 in cable service
"Our employees have worked hard to earn the deep loyalty of customers in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, while the Virgin America team has done the same in California," Tilden said in a statement.
Not hard to do if you are the only game in town, in Alaska...
It's like Comcast in a monopolized zone and claiming that they are the #1 in cable service
#164
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: SEA/ORD/ADB
Programs: TK ELPL (*G), AS 100K (OWE), BA Gold (OWE), Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Plat, IHG Plat
Posts: 7,763
I found the following quote quite comical
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...404-story.html
Not hard to do if you are the only game in town, in Alaska...
It's like Comcast in a monopolized zone and claiming that they are the #1 in cable service
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...404-story.html
Not hard to do if you are the only game in town, in Alaska...
It's like Comcast in a monopolized zone and claiming that they are the #1 in cable service
#165
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,391
Hardly the only game in town in SEA/PDX though, which are nothing near fortress hubs and never have been. UA had a lot of service out of SEA in the 1970's, AS was an afterthought and worked for their market share.