The US Airways /American Airlines merger-related thread (merged threads)
Apr 18, 2012, 1:42 pm
#121
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I'm sticking to my belief that a merger between any of the four remaining carriers with nationwide route networks wouldn't receive regulatory approval. Wishful thinking, perhaps.
Apr 18, 2012, 2:25 pm
#122
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Bethune is probably about right on the odds. These things aren't that predictable.
I'd go 60-40 in favor of a merger, though. I just don't see AA emerging as an independent carrier. It doesn't make sense -- they need US to bulk up, and they need US's management. Eventually, this deal should become "inevitable." I think that process has already started.
BTW, having flown (unhappily) through MIA on AA last week, I wonder what changes Parker and Kirby would make to that operation. Basically, MIA is a horrific place to make a connection -- and no doubt many of their customers realize this. It's also an unbelievably expensive airport to operate out of (thanks to MIA mismanagement and white elephant projects). Would US shift some Latin flights to CLT, leaving MIA for mostly Origin/Destination traffic? AA has already done some of this, as they have a pathetic domestic network out of MIA. I'd also wonder if Parker could use the bankruptcy process to get out of some of the overpriced MIA leases (which, I guess, could theoretically bankrupt Miam-Dade County). It will be another interesting outcome of the deal.
I'd go 60-40 in favor of a merger, though. I just don't see AA emerging as an independent carrier. It doesn't make sense -- they need US to bulk up, and they need US's management. Eventually, this deal should become "inevitable." I think that process has already started.
BTW, having flown (unhappily) through MIA on AA last week, I wonder what changes Parker and Kirby would make to that operation. Basically, MIA is a horrific place to make a connection -- and no doubt many of their customers realize this. It's also an unbelievably expensive airport to operate out of (thanks to MIA mismanagement and white elephant projects). Would US shift some Latin flights to CLT, leaving MIA for mostly Origin/Destination traffic? AA has already done some of this, as they have a pathetic domestic network out of MIA. I'd also wonder if Parker could use the bankruptcy process to get out of some of the overpriced MIA leases (which, I guess, could theoretically bankrupt Miam-Dade County). It will be another interesting outcome of the deal.
Parker still hasn't been able to get labor sorted out between US and HP - and that's been nearly 7 years since the merger. Throw AA into mix and you're just asking for a huge mess.
US needs AA a lot more than AA needs US.
Apr 18, 2012, 2:38 pm
#123
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Curious - why does AA need US's management? AA's biggest problem is labor costs. It has higher labor costs that the others were able to dump thru bankruptcy. Being able to get those costs down will go a long way to making AA more viable.
Parker still hasn't been able to get labor sorted out between US and HP - and that's been nearly 7 years since the merger. Throw AA into mix and you're just asking for a huge mess.
US needs AA a lot more than AA needs US.
Parker still hasn't been able to get labor sorted out between US and HP - and that's been nearly 7 years since the merger. Throw AA into mix and you're just asking for a huge mess.
US needs AA a lot more than AA needs US.
Apr 18, 2012, 3:47 pm
#124
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All those are issues a creditor would look at as well. They want to get as much as their money back as possible, and try to keep the airline afloat to maximize that chance. Both US and DL are heavily in debt. I don't know that putting a heavily indebted partner with AA would be in the creditors' interest. It could very well make it harder to get their money back.
Apr 19, 2012, 12:17 pm
#125
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AMR merger likely
at least a serious attempt at one. Lots of mine fields to get through but it is really getting hot in AZ now. Talking with a few friends at US they say rumours have significantly increased this weak.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo
The LLC stock is up 10% this morning.
I think for VFF a merger is probably a net negative, although there is not much overlap, for a PHX based VFF I think it will not be good at all.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo
The LLC stock is up 10% this morning.
I think for VFF a merger is probably a net negative, although there is not much overlap, for a PHX based VFF I think it will not be good at all.
Apr 19, 2012, 12:30 pm
#126
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You have to understand that AA's unions will do ANYTHING to try and get a better deal from AA management. At this point, voicing support for a US merger is that ANYTHING. It's not that they want it to happen, it's that they want AA management to believe they want it.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
Apr 19, 2012, 12:56 pm
#127
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You have to understand that AA's unions will do ANYTHING to try and get a better deal from AA management. At this point, voicing support for a US merger is that ANYTHING. It's not that they want it to happen, it's that they want AA management to believe they want it.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
Apr 19, 2012, 12:59 pm
#128
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You have to understand that AA's unions will do ANYTHING to try and get a better deal from AA management. At this point, voicing support for a US merger is that ANYTHING. It's not that they want it to happen, it's that they want AA management to believe they want it.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
US still has labor problems it needs to sort out internally. A merger with US would be DISASTEROUS for AA's union members. It also goes against the work being done jointly through the restructuring process (which is visible on the web), including reclassifying employees, setting new maximum wages (but not cutting those who are already above max), etc.
What makes more sense than anything is US leaving *A and joining OW. All the benefits, none of the pain.
Apr 19, 2012, 1:19 pm
#129
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Stock now up 15% there may be much more to this than we even realize.
Apr 19, 2012, 2:03 pm
#130
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Why the hell would the DoJ approve this? Leaving only 3 legacy carriers w/ national networks has to, at a minimum, raise alot of antitrust red flags.
Apr 19, 2012, 2:23 pm
#132
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Apr 19, 2012, 2:25 pm
#133
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If they can find a way not to turn the Pensions over to the Feds they may very well get behind any merger.
Apr 19, 2012, 2:57 pm
#134
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I have a dumb question. Would a merger still mean AMR shares are wiped out or not?
Apr 19, 2012, 3:11 pm
#135
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Yes, AMR shares are gone regardless. In a merger US share holders would get some formula of the new companies shares after BK exit. I think in the HP US case it was 2-1.