macabus

Doug Parker was just quoted hinting about a likely consolidation, saying that "there is one big deal left and that's going to involve US Airways."

The current market shares are:

UA/CO: 28%
DL/NW: 26%
AA: 18%
WN/FL: 12%
US: 10%

The only two major carriers that haven't merged yet are US and AA, which would put them even with UA/CO.

Could this be the consolidation that Parker is hinting about?

dcpatti

This rumor/speculation comes up every so often, usually mixed in with other threads. Do some searches and see the various points of view. Here is one thread about US in *A that has some relevant posts and viewpoints: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/us-ai...d-threads.html

One of the financial mags quoted one of the US C-level folks (can't remember who but it wasn't Parker) as saying a merger, if any, would be more than 3 years out and probably more like the 5-8 year time frame. That's an eternity in such a volatile industry, so I'd not spend too much time worrying about it now. Personally I don't see it happening with AA; both airlines have big labor issues to work out, and there's not a lot of overlap in the fleets, so having a streamlined set of equipment would be a challenge. Also personally I'm not a fan of AA--- I have had too many let-downs from their customer service-- so, for selfish reasons, I'd hate to see US merge with AA, but like I said, until there's more than rumor and speculation, I'd not really worry about it.

sbbutler93

There's a big debate over on that other site...

But essentially, fleet integration would be a mess and both individual airlines have a mess with labor. Parker has said he wants to be the buyer as well. AA will go with AS or B6 before US IMO.

Tucker501

I have a friend who is a gate agent at T4 at PHX, and I remember him saying he spotted "officials" with AA ID badges in one of the concourses, about a year ago. Of course they could have been looking at other things inside the terminal. FYI AA only has a few gates at the smaller T3 at PHX.

dcpatti

Seeing an airline official in the general vicinity of another airline doesn't really mean a lot. I saw Nancy Pelosi on the US Shuttle once; that doesn't mean the Feds are taking over US. If they were meeting with US execs that would be worthy of speculation but for all anyone knows, they were on a longish layover and taking a nice walk to stretch the legs

eponymous_coward

I think AA should worry about finding a path to profitability first before worrying about who to buy, especially considering that AA's record with mergers (AC, QQ, TW) leaves something to be desired.

US may be able to go for quite a while as a niche carrier, and if the UA/CO merger goes well, 5 years or so down the line I could see UA thinking that US might not be such an ugly girl after all- what they would probably do in response to the inevitable concern about monopoly share in WAS is move a lot of domestic operations out of IAD in preference to DCA, sort of do what AA does with LGA/JFK.

flg8rmatt

Yeah...I have seen people with AS badges in T4 at PHX (AS gates are in T2) because they were jumpseating on WN flights to SEA and PDX.

I tend to think any real meetings between executives would take place at the US hq building just up the road in Tempe.

ArizonaGuy

Merger or no, I"m thoroughly disappointed at the Justice Dept and other relevant organizations approving so many mergers. Reducing the number of airlines any further isn't going to help consumers. Shareholders, maybe, but that's not who Justice and other departments are supposed to protect.

I feel the same way about AT&T/T-Mobile - which will probably get approved anyway despite FCC's claims of scrutiny. I say this because I firmly thought Sirius and XM wouldn't be allowed to merge and that went through.

The end result is the same: When there are so few major players left, allowing them to merge doesn't improve the situation for the public.

AviationFan24

Hi I am an first time poster in U.S. Airways Forum, not a newbie.

I for one think hope this never pans out. On other sites, boards and in person discussions I have had about this topic I think it is is an absolutely horrible idea. The majority of opinions keep saying this would be great for me (the posters), they would compliment each other so well. I could not disagree more.

As a resident of Tempe I get to hear and see all the chatter going with U.S. Airways. IMHO I think they would be just fine on their own. I think a merger with AA would produce too much overlap and redundancy with their networks and routes. Having DFW, PHX and LAX so close, too much "left field" hubs.

I did see one suggestion which I thought might actually be good, a merger with Hawaiian Airlines. I think this could work. It would U.S. to expand on the pacific side of things where they are severely lacking.

Maybe we will see a merger if things continue for AA and bankruptcy results, US may swoop in and try and snag em up. Just a thought, hypothetical and certainly possible.

I agree with ArizonaGuy, all this consolidation may work great for big government in bed with big business, but it does hurt the consumers. Who knows what will happen. I can honestly say I will be shocked if AA merger rumors become true.

Charlie.

GaryZ

Did Parker just make an offer for AA?
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerq...-sec.html?ana#

MrSyslogd

I know I might get lambasted for this, but I think a US/AS is more likely. Roughly the same size. AS having it's main hub in SEA, would not impact PHX any, but the LAX hub would be easier to deal with than AA. They have routes that are not as overlapped as the current US map than AA currently is.

Yes there is an issue with non-like equipment, but with mainly 737, it is not like they have MDXX,757,767,777 as an AA would add.

fish114

If the financial situation clears up, US is able to get a good deal, and there are no issues out of DEN with UA/*A, I see either an acquisition of Republic or just the F9 airbus assets and the DEN hub as the most likely. F9 operates airbus and EMB a/c and the parent Republic operates much of the USX schedule. US could just reposition the EMB assets as USX operated by Republic out of DEN (IDK how the transaction would work). DEN is a much better positioned midwest hub than PHX and allows US access to the midwest market and compete against DL ex-SLC and MSP and UA ex-DEN.

FWAAA

Yes, except why would you want to increase the unit costs at AS by tying it to the high-cost brick that is US? AS is successful in part because of its low costs. LCC doesn't enjoy the same low costs as AS. Or would you advocate running LCC thru another Ch 11 process to bring its costs down to match AS and then marrying them together?

The other factor absent in a marriage with AS is that you still don't gain any additional presence across the Atlantic or the Pacific. The currrent Star Alliance immunized joint ventures haven't invited Parker to those reindeer games, leaving US as the only USA-based legacy not enjoying antitrust immunity with its overseas alliance partners. Marrying AS won't bring any of that lucrative Tokyo/China/other Asia/London/other Europe revenue. So what would be the point exactly? More routes to Alaska?

MrSyslogd

Valid reasons. I looked at as a low hanging fruit, add routes, add some ETOPS planes, with not that much fuss.

Also AS has code share, but not directly apart of OneWorld so it would not impact Star Alliance to cause US being kicked out.

macabus

Very interesting...