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-   -   SYD Upgrade Chances - LAX or SFO? [Merged] (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-mileage-plus-pre-merger/996017-syd-upgrade-chances-lax-sfo-merged.html)

flickerflix Oct 29, 2009 7:23 am

SWU not clearing
 
On IAD-SFO-SYD next week on W fare. Upgrades showing waitlisted all legs. Dummy booking showing 10 seats available in C (at the moment).

Is the upgrade clearing being hampered by starting IAD-SFO? I know this is an elite heavy route and tough to upgrade. I really am much more interested in the SFO-SYD leg.

Downunder girl Oct 29, 2009 7:32 am

Kremmen: You hit the nail on the head ^. It really does depend on day of travel and those travelling. I do exactly as you describe and most often will fly INTO LAX from SYD because there is more NC space when I am booking, but for several years now I have departed ex SFO to SYD, again because there was NC space available at booking. I tend to fly ex SYD on a WED or TUES because they are lower yield days and I fly home on SAT night or SUN because I dont want to waste vacation days :D. In my earlier days of trying to upgrade, I was always flying into and out of LAX and once NC was not avail ex LAX until approximately 7 days prior to flight.

I think my chances have been better out of SFO :-:.

Another factor that sometimes comes into play with availability in general on flights is that the ex LAX flights seem to be weight restricted much more often than the SFO flights. If the flight is weight restricted, that sometimes means they have to fly with empty seats in cabins (even premium cabins), despite the heavy loads. I dont know alot about this, so maybe one of our resident UA staffers here can answer that for us :D.

ThatAdamGuy Nov 2, 2009 3:17 am

SYD out of SFO vs. LAX for SWU upgrade
 
Hi there,

I've read a few related threads, and I'm still confused.

First, the quick details:
- I'm flying to/from SYD during a pretty peak time: Dec 7-Dec 22 (can actually return nearly any day up 'til dec 30)
- I'm a 1P with a friend who is willing to offer me an SWU (and I may be able to successfully hit up another buddy for a 2nd one).

I've read conflicting reports re: how to assess upgrade chances:
1) A couple people suggested checking the available seats shown when going through the booking process on UA. However, I got burned by this recently; booked an SFO-FRA flight that ended up looking half empty day before, but I ended up 22nd on the waiting list for an SWU upgrade!
2) Someone said to check SeatCounter, but I don't think that shows upgrade chances, right?

Other ideas?
Or thoughts about chances ex SFO vs. LAX to Sydney w/ SWU?

Thanks!

Jgish Nov 2, 2009 3:31 am

Go through LAX IMO. Slightly better chance. Your SFO-FRA experience is on par with the experience of others...flight is typically 1K/GS heavy.

ThatAdamGuy Nov 2, 2009 4:05 am

Hmm. Or I'm guessing I'd probably have a better chance of an upgrade returning Dec 24, or a VDB on Dec 22 or 23, right? :-)

If I may depart from reality for a moment, a dream would be a VDB on the 23rd AND an upgrade on the 24th :D... hmm....!

[Do you think the folks at the UA call center would have any reliable input with this?]

weero Nov 2, 2009 4:35 am


Originally Posted by ThatAdamGuy (Post 12751573)
..If I may depart from reality for a moment, a dream would be a VDB on the 23rd AND an upgrade on the 24th :D... hmm....!..

Why would Dec 24th be empty? That flight arrives ideally timed right before Christmas in the US.

I flew about 5 times on Dec 25th and the birds were packed in recent years.

Biggles, Esq. Nov 2, 2009 4:43 am

I flew once MEL-LAX on Dec. 25th (albeit on QF), in 2006 methinks it was.

Plane was so empty you could've ridden reindeers down the aisles or whatever takes your fancy after you've put a few Xmas ones down the hatch.

The FA's were wearing Santa hats and were full of the holiday cheer, and when we landed in the States it was the 25th all over again.

Good times.

ThatAdamGuy Nov 2, 2009 5:05 am

Biggles, that was like my experience FRA-SFO on Jan 1, 2000. Not only an entire row to myself, but nearly the whole plane :P.

Weero, good point re: 24th... I wasn't taking into account the big time difference which does get people back in plenty of time for Christmas Eve celebrating. But... I did check the seat availability on UA for the 25th, and boy is it empty! (at least compared to the 23rd).

So maybe I should book for 24th and hope for a VDB to an empty flight on the 25th :D

Lori_Q Nov 2, 2009 6:08 am


Originally Posted by ThatAdamGuy (Post 12751692)
So maybe I should book for 24th and hope for a VDB to an empty flight on the 25th :D

Sounds like a good strategy. Dream big, my friend: A VDB and empty/upgraded later flight are entirely possible. And please remember to post your experiences to this thread after your return!

Downunder girl Nov 2, 2009 6:28 am


Originally Posted by Biggles, Esq. (Post 12751633)
I flew once MEL-LAX on Dec. 25th (albeit on QF), in 2006 methinks it was.

Plane was so empty you could've ridden reindeers down the aisles or whatever takes your fancy after you've put a few Xmas ones down the hatch.

The FA's were wearing Santa hats and were full of the holiday cheer, and when we landed in the States it was the 25th all over again.

Good times.


LOL that visual made me laugh :D.

Welcome to FT, too :).

I have also flown UA on Xmas day in the late 80s or early 90s and it was similar to what you describe. Not completely empty but we certainly got spare middle block rows to oursevles down the back to stretch out across ^.

They served a Christmas dinner with all the trimmings back then and everyone was pleasant and happy :p.

P.S I know I am probably dating myself, but I loved your namesake's novels when I was growing up.

weero Nov 2, 2009 8:01 am


Originally Posted by ThatAdamGuy (Post 12751692)
Biggles, that was like my experience FRA-SFO on Jan 1, 2000. Not only an entire row to myself, but nearly the whole plane :P.

Yes I know! In 2000 Christmas and New Year were empty like the intergalactic space. I flew SYD-SFO-FRA on Christmas day (SFO-FRA was then operated by LH) and the planes were 'evacuated'.
That changed dramatically the last few years and my last two Dec. 25th rides, I did not even get an empty seat next to me.

Weero, good point re: 24th... I wasn't taking into account the big time difference which does get people back in plenty of time for Christmas Eve celebrating. But... I did check the seat availability on UA for the 25th, and boy is it empty! (at least compared to the 23rd).
Yes. Availability is excellent. But you know how boldly they do overbook!

So maybe I should book for 24th and hope for a VDB to an empty flight on the 25th :D
Or at least an op-up ;) .

Biggles, Esq. Nov 2, 2009 4:40 pm


Originally Posted by Downunder girl (Post 12751929)
LOL that visual made me laugh :D.

Welcome to FT, too :).

I have also flown UA on Xmas day in the late 80s or early 90s and it was similar to what you describe. Not completely empty but we certainly got spare middle block rows to oursevles down the back to stretch out across ^.

They served a Christmas dinner with all the trimmings back then and everyone was pleasant and happy :p.

P.S I know I am probably dating myself, but I loved your namesake's novels when I was growing up.


Thanks for the welcome.
To be honest, though, I have lurked here for a bloody long time, getting voyeuristic hi-jinks from trawling the threads and observing the banter from afar.

And no, you're not dating yourself at all with the Biggles reference. The novels remain as entertaining as ever, although it would be amusing to watch FTers debate the C class configurations of the Spitfires and Camels :p

Grace B Nov 2, 2009 10:41 pm


Originally Posted by Downunder girl
because there was NC space available at booking.

Im sorry, can you please explain what this is?  I havent seen it for quite a while on US-AU flights.  

Im waitlisted both ways for flights in May 2010.  No UA 背絵mと葉ヴぇウィthdらwん亜ll NC space from now into the distant future on these routes. Prelude to unlimited upgrades?

Pardon the strange characters, but Im using a computer in the ANA lounge at NRT.
:)

allyc Nov 3, 2009 4:00 am

SWU's - increasing your chances of getting the upgrade...
 
I booked a flight to australia a couple months ago... LAX-SYD, outbound on 11/11 and return on 11/28. I had a friend sponsor SWU's for both legs, and the outbound cleared several weeks ago. The return is still waitlisted, and i was wondering if anyone knows whether or not being in econ + makes a difference in terms of your place on the waitlist. I had purchased the econ + for the outbound, so don't know if this helped me get that upgrade confirmed, or just lighter loads on a wednesday as opposed to the saturday return was the reason...

I am pretty familiar with the upgrade waitlist issue, so I know its mainly a factor of when I was first placed on the waitlist, but if I can help my chances by purchasing the econ + I will certainly do that - I broke my back in a car accident and have some vertebrae fused, so 14 hours in Y will likely require much more vicodin than i am willing to take :)

spkg Nov 3, 2009 4:08 am

e+ has nothing to do with it, seat map is still showing lots of open seats, if i were to guess, you no problem getting the upgrade, might as well cancel the e+ if you can.

Downunder girl Nov 3, 2009 4:15 am

Hi allyc, welcome to Flyertalk :D

Unfortunately, I doubt very much that being in E+ is going to help your upgrade chances. What is considered is your sponsor's status with UA and your position on the waitlist, up until the flight goes under DM (departure management - approx 4 or so hours prior to departure) then what matters is YOUR status with UA, the time you were put on the DM list and your fare paid. I am guessing you probably bought a W class fare at least (to be able to upgrade with SWUs).

It might be worth paying for E+ on the other flight closer to departure, if you still havent cleared the upgrade waitlist and you have a bad back. The only sure way of getting into Business class is buying a ticket :(.

I would also watch the flight for NC space (thats the business class upgrade inventory you need to see for an upgrade to clear). Sometimes if loads arent too heavy in the premium cabins, UA will open up the NC space approx 7 days before flight ex SYD. I know, I watch these flights ALOT :D as that is my market.

BTW the mods will probably move this thread as there has been many similar threads like this recently regarding upgrade chances on SYD-USA route. So dont be surprised if its moved :p.

Good luck.

mattinsf Nov 4, 2009 1:32 pm

Splitting PNRs
 
Earlier in this post someone suggested splitting a PNR to improve the chance that two passengers would clear for SWUs. I see the logic in that--you and your traveling companion won't get passed up every time the system looks for one person to upgrade. If you want to sit together, and you both don't both get upgraded (certainly possible where one is 1K and the other isn't), the 1K can decline the upgrade.

But there is risk associated with declining the upgrade, right? If you decline the upgrade, you can keep your prior fare only if there still are seats available in that class of service. If there are not, you must accept a seat in the next available class of service, and pay any fare difference. Since the time between being upgraded and knowing whether your traveling companion is also upgraded could be significant, the class of service you bought into could be sold out.

Like the original poster, I too plan to fly to SYD out of LAX or SFO, though in late January. I thought about using two PNRs but don't want to pay any fare difference if I get upgraded and my companion doesn't.

Am I wrong about this? I would love to be.

unavaca Nov 4, 2009 1:51 pm


Originally Posted by mattinsf (Post 12767144)
Earlier in this post someone suggested splitting a PNR to improve the chance that two passengers would clear for SWUs. I see the logic in that--you and your traveling companion won't get passed up every time the system looks for one person to upgrade. If you want to sit together, and you both don't both get upgraded (certainly possible where one is 1K and the other isn't), the 1K can decline the upgrade.

But there is risk associated with declining the upgrade, right? If you decline the upgrade, you can keep your prior fare only if there still are seats available in that class of service. If there are not, you must accept a seat in the next available class of service, and pay any fare difference. Since the time between being upgraded and knowing whether your traveling companion is also upgraded could be significant, the class of service you bought into could be sold out.

Like the original poster, I too plan to fly to SYD out of LAX or SFO, though in late January. I thought about using two PNRs but don't want to pay any fare difference if I get upgraded and my companion doesn't.

Am I wrong about this? I would love to be.

This is true, up until airport control. Once the flight is under airport control, you can downgrade back to Y regardless of your original fare class, as long as there is availability in Y. You might not have a great seat, but you will be in Y...

Welcome to FT!

allyc Nov 5, 2009 1:42 am

yep, i see my thread moved, but looks right at home in this discussion :) i actually went through the whole "to SFO or not to SFO" question before going ahead with the LAX booking, haha!
And seeing that the flight still has C9, D9 and even a handful of F availability, i am thinking things still look pretty good, fingers crossed. there's even 26 C open on the seatmap (what? who's counting seatmaps?!?! they don't mean anything, i know i know). i will take the advice and skip the E+ option until a few days out from the flight... THanks for your input!!

ugh, so why can't there be a way to guarantee business without the $8K price tag... All of us 30 year olds with bad backs and mid paying jobs can't swing that :)

ThatAdamGuy Nov 5, 2009 1:48 am

AllyC, a big YES to two of your thoughts:
1) Seat maps lie [sigh]
2) I agree that business class is crazy expensive. I work for a very-well-off company and *I* have never booked business class on even the company dime, much less my own*. But I know employees of a LOT of companies (:cough: high-priced consultancy firms, er, their clients) do consistently pay for business class seating, so it's a charge-what-charge-can situation, I guess.

Still, I'm baffled that mid-tier offerings (like "Premium Economy") seemingly haven't been very successful. I can totally imagine paying 1.5-3x full-fare economy prices for more comfort (I certainly couldn't care less about the "fancy" food and wine), but I guess there aren't enough of us to make it worth it to the airlines.

But I digress.

Downunder girl Nov 5, 2009 5:00 am


Originally Posted by Grace B (Post 12757484)
Im sorry, can you please explain what this is?  I havent seen it for quite a while on US-AU flights.  

Im waitlisted both ways for flights in May 2010.  No UA 背絵mと葉ヴぇウィthdらwん亜ll NC space from now into the distant future on these routes. Prelude to unlimited upgrades?

Pardon the strange characters, but Im using a computer in the ANA lounge at NRT.
:)

Hi Grace B

Not sure if you are really asking a question or being sarcastic to UA :D.

NC space is when NC=9 or varying lower numbers other than zero :D. Yes its now much harder to find NC space available at booking. I was lucky, pure and simple. My friend had been watching the flights for me, and he found NC space just happened to open up and jumped on it - but the tix was bought 9 months out. It was in JAN 09.

ozstamps Nov 5, 2009 7:27 am


Originally Posted by Biggles, Esq. (Post 12751633)
I flew once MEL-LAX on Dec. 25th (albeit on QF), in 2006 methinks it was.

Plane was so empty you could've ridden reindeers down the aisles or whatever takes your fancy after you've put a few Xmas ones down the hatch.

The FA's were wearing Santa hats and were full of the holiday cheer, and when we landed in the States it was the 25th all over again.

Good times.

Flew SYD-SFO on Xmas Day last year, and C was 100% full. (Headed for St George Utah .. what a place to try and buy a bottle Bubbly for a Xmas dinner drink!)

And had been looking full for weeks so was no yuletide comp fest at gate.

Downunder girl Nov 5, 2009 8:23 pm


Originally Posted by Biggles, Esq. (Post 12755789)
Thanks for the welcome.
To be honest, though, I have lurked here for a bloody long time, getting voyeuristic hi-jinks from trawling the threads and observing the banter from afar.

And no, you're not dating yourself at all with the Biggles reference. The novels remain as entertaining as ever, although it would be amusing to watch FTers debate the C class configurations of the Spitfires and Camels :p

:D. Thanks. Glad you have come out and posted finally!

Its been a really long time since I read a Biggles novel.....hmmm I might need a refresher :p.

On topic now :D : I have also noticed there is limited NC space listed for flights in the second half of 2010 :(. And lets not even start on how expensive the W fares are ex SYD :td:. Oh well, I have time on my side, so I will just sit back and let competition run its course on this route and hope to see better fare prices loaded for the upgradeable fares. Hope I am not dreaming :eek:.

msamar33 Nov 6, 2009 5:17 pm

Chances for LAX-SYD upgrade
 
A friend has system-wide upgrades for me and my companion for flights from LAX-SYD and back in February. United has no upgrades available now. What do you think our chances would be on getting the upgrades to business class (either before or on the day of travel) being on a waitlist with no premier membership in United's program?

Why when you look at business class seats available do they only show one deck - don't the 747's on that route have an upper and lower deck for business?

Mike Jacoubowsky Nov 6, 2009 5:23 pm


Originally Posted by msamar33 (Post 12781188)
A friend has system-wide upgrades for me and my companion for flights from LAX-SYD and back in February. United has no upgrades available now. What do you think our chances would be on getting the upgrades to business class (either before or on the day of travel) being on a waitlist with no premier membership in United's program?

Why when you look at business class seats available do they only show one deck - don't the 747's on that route have an upper and lower deck for business?

Do you have a qualifying fare? SWUs don't work with the cheapie K-class fares most of us are flying to OZ on. :eek:

The part I wrote next is incorrect and has been addressed by later posts- As for biz class location, I believe the International 747s (which would be all of them) have been reconfigured with first upstairs. Check seatguru.com for the info.Obviously I need more experience flying C!

Goes2Oz Nov 6, 2009 5:42 pm


Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky (Post 12781226)
Do you have a qualifying fare? SWUs don't work with the cheapie K-class fares most of us are flying to OZ on. :eek:

As for biz class location, I believe the International 747s (which would be all of them) have been reconfigured with first upstairs. Check seatguru.com for the info.

No ... biz class is upper deck as well as main deck. FC is downstairs between the nose and the first set of doors.

WineCountryUA Nov 6, 2009 5:50 pm


Originally Posted by msamar33 (Post 12781188)
....
Why when you look at business class seats available do they only show one deck - don't the 747's on that route have an upper and lower deck for business?

There are two business class sections -- row 6-10 is lowered deck and row 11-17 is upper deck. The seat selection on united.com (as a single map) does not make it clear there are two separate sections.

a good reference for seat selection (if you get the upgrades) is
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...nal-cabin.html
or seatguru UA 747 new config

Mike Jacoubowsky Nov 6, 2009 6:22 pm


Originally Posted by WineCountryUA (Post 12781333)
There are two business class sections -- row 6-10 is lowered deck and row 11-17 is upper deck. The seat selection on united.com (as a single map) does not make it clear there are two separate sections.

a good reference for seat selection (if you get the upgrades) is
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...nal-cabin.html
or seatguru UA 747 new config

But very little about where you'd sit in Y on a 747. Because friends don't let friends sit in Y on a 747? I'll get back to you on that after my 14-hour flight (in Y) tomorrow night! ;)

PanHam Nov 6, 2009 6:26 pm

In general, it's easier to upgrade any route out of LAX as opposed to SFO.

Even K-fares to SYD. Yes, it can be done ;).

SFOTurtle Nov 6, 2009 6:34 pm


Originally Posted by PanHam (Post 12781484)
In general, it's easier to upgrade any route out of LAX as opposed to SFO.

Even K-fares to SYD. Yes, it can be done ;).

But without any status, and in high season, I don't like the OP's chances in securing the upgrade. The odds of NC opening up before the date of departure are, well, not good. Even on flights showing C9 D9 Z9 just days before departure, there is almost always NC0 and XC0. I had a shot at making 1K this year, but studying NC availability more closely, I decided getting the SWUs wasn't worth the effort given the crapshoot of getting upgraded with them on int'l flights.

WineCountryUA Nov 6, 2009 6:37 pm


Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky (Post 12781466)
But very little about where you'd sit in Y on a 747. Because friends don't let friends sit in Y on a 747? ....

So correct, there are no good seat in 747 Y :D only less bad (such as the exit rows)

msamar33 Nov 6, 2009 7:07 pm

I would purchase an upgradable fare in advance - which means I pay an extra $700/each which is why I'm curious about my odds. If I spend the extra $1,400 and the upgrades don't go through, I will be pissed. I don't travel like this often, but I can't believe that on the day of travel, considering the market share being taken from United from V Australia, and even after all the premier members upgrade that there would not be 2 seats left over? Am I being naive?

Would my Gold status on USAirways help at all?

TJQuill Nov 6, 2009 10:30 pm


Originally Posted by SFOTurtle (Post 12781537)
I had a shot at making 1K this year, but studying NC availability more closely, I decided getting the SWUs wasn't worth the effort given the crapshoot of getting upgraded with them on int'l flights.

I will take my chances with the "crapshoot" as a 1K: 151,000 eqm year to date and I have been upgraded on every international segment and all but one domestic segment.

The only international segment I have ever not been upgraded on as a 1K was LAX-SYD a few years ago when I booked the flight the night before departure.

YMMV.

Colin Nov 6, 2009 10:50 pm

day of week is what matters most on this topic

mid-week, on the PA list via SWU -- no worries.

msamar33 Nov 6, 2009 11:17 pm

The dates would be leaving Saturday, Feb. 13 and return Friday, March 5. What is Saturday/Friday travel chances vs. mid-week?

Colin Nov 7, 2009 6:16 am


Originally Posted by msamar33 (Post 12782515)
The dates would be leaving Saturday, Feb. 13 and return Friday, March 5. What is Saturday/Friday travel chances vs. mid-week?

25 vs 90

Downunder girl Nov 7, 2009 7:10 am


Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky (Post 12781466)
But very little about where you'd sit in Y on a 747. Because friends don't let friends sit in Y on a 747? I'll get back to you on that after my 14-hour flight (in Y) tomorrow night! ;)

I'll send you a PM on my "fave" seat in E+ ;). However, I much prefer the UD :p. And I have my fingers crossed, you will end up in a C seat there.

As I alluded to before, Colin hit the nail on the head ^. Travel mid week and its easier to find NC space. However, I have done well departing ex SFO on Saturday evenings as well. Not sure why, as you would think it would fill up with business people needing to be in SYD for Monday AM meetings. But for some reason, I have always been ok on this day ex USA but I do tend to book quite far out.

Pat89339 Nov 7, 2009 10:57 am

For those in E+ Y, stay away from 25 A-C and presumably all letters in Row 25. When you flip up the arm rest (if your seatmate doesn't mind), there is a hump on the underside of the arm rest which protrudes into the seating area. It will stick you in the back, sides and other parts if you have the whole row and want to lay down. If you have carry on space, bring your own pillow (it squishes down quite well in a space saver bag).

Don't forget, if you have an aisle seat to check for the toggle switch between the arm rest and the seat back to see if you can flip up that arm rest for some additional space and ease of ingress and egress.

As someone who did get DVT I like to remind people who don't often fly longhaul to get up and walk about the plane occasionally on the long flight. Do those seat exercises as well.

ThatAdamGuy Nov 17, 2009 8:39 pm

Well, I promised I'd update this thread with new news, so here I am.

I just checked my itinerary on United.com and saw -- to my great surprise and pleasure -- that the SWU for my SFO-SYD leg on Monday, Dec 7 cleared! This'll be only the second time I've ever flown in the new C, and wow, what a great long trip to be in new-C for! :-).

My only (very tiny) disappointment is that United didn't notify me of this upgrade clearing. I have signed up for practically every type of alert with them (e-mail, SMS, etc.), after all. It's a good thing I happened to check the web site today, so I was able to pick (what I think is) a particularly good seat: 13A on upper deck (I like to sleep, and I don't get up much during flights).

Now to scavenge an SWU for the return flight!

Oh, and I'm so bummed that, due to a canceled earlier trip, I'm not likely to get 1K for next year :(. But maybe I'll do a last minute MR the last week of December... :D

BrisbanePE Nov 17, 2009 10:57 pm


Originally Posted by ThatAdamGuy (Post 12838109)
My only (very tiny) disappointment is that United didn't notify me of this upgrade clearing. I have signed up for practically every type of alert with them (e-mail, SMS, etc.), after all. It's a good thing I happened to check the web site today, so I was able to pick (what I think is) a particularly good seat: 13A on upper deck (I like to sleep, and I don't get up much during flights).

I think the only time I've ever had notification of an upgrade clearing was using e-500s (years ago). Never had it for miles or certs that I can recall. So yes I would check everyday in hope it had cleared.

13A is decent enough seat. I had 13B last trip. Out of curiosity let me know if you find that the tray tables seem a long way away from your body :) This struck me on my last trip, and I don't remember it being an issue downstairs.

Enjoy!


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