I don't think I've seen any posts about this web site yet:

http://www.uawatch.com/


From the web site

I predict one of four scenarios, and have assigned probabilities for each:

United obtains private financing provided it pares back costs even further, which will almost certainly require more salary cuts and possible union resistance. However, success under this scenario would place United in the best competitive position relative to the other majors. Probability 40%.


United obtains private financing without further cost cuts, and needs to revisit bankruptcy court within another 1-2 years. Probability 20%.


United is liquidated, and a private firm familiar with financing airlines cherry-picks United's best assets (including prime routes and aircraft), possibly honoring frequent flyer miles in an attempt to retain the loyalty of United fliers. Probability 20%.


United is liquidated, and ceases to be an operating entity. Probability 20%.

According to this site, United's chance of liquidation is a combined 40%.

Well the owner/author does say, "...Certainly these are "wild" predictions without much to go by in terms of precedents,.."

See related story:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040714/to232_1.html

That really does say it all - Putting out a "watch your miles, panic!" press release via PRNewswire and advertising it here. I wonder how many other BB's have been spammed with this?

Clearly someone trying to make a buck out of putting fear in people's minds. Hrm, wonder where he got that strategy from...