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-   -   B737MAX Recertification - Archive (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/2031779-b737max-recertification-archive.html)

YuropFlyer Dec 15, 2019 2:55 am

The MAX isn't death yet for the only reason others have mentioned already: Not enough airframes are produced worldwide to (more or less) meet demand. So airlines will be happy with the second best choice.. there is a good reason the NG is still in production and was even recently made available in a new design.. so as long as the MAX somehow is made airworthy, it will be produced in the thousands.

clubord Dec 15, 2019 5:52 am


Originally Posted by transportprof (Post 31841182)
I predict that >50% of MAXs will become freighters within five years time. Jeff Bezos is going to get some great deals on planes for Amazon.

That’s a bold prediction.

They can barely keep that operation going at the size it is now. Good luck finding pilots to fly at those pay rates in today’s environment.

moondog Dec 15, 2019 7:59 am


Originally Posted by clubord (Post 31841705)
That’s a bold prediction.

They can barely keep that operation going at the size it is now. Good luck finding pilots to fly at those pay rates in today’s environment.

The cargo conversion idea honestly never crossed my mind until I saw the post you quoted, but it makes sense on the surface. Confident pilots will certainly be willing to fly MAX, and if their employers can fetch MAX at a deep discount, this might be a great outcome for all.

STS-134 Dec 15, 2019 9:25 am


Originally Posted by YuropFlyer (Post 31841429)
The MAX isn't death yet for the only reason others have mentioned already: Not enough airframes are produced worldwide to (more or less) meet demand. So airlines will be happy with the second best choice.. there is a good reason the NG is still in production and was even recently made available in a new design.. so as long as the MAX somehow is made airworthy, it will be produced in the thousands.

Demand is dependent on two other variables: supply and price. If people aren't willing to fly the MAX, at any price, then the curves just shift and prices rise.

In 2021, I'll likely be paying more to fly each segment, not because of the MAX issue specifically, but because of Scott Kirby's changes to MileagePlus. Instead of paying UA indirectly for E+ (through mileage runs and creative routings on UA metal), I'll be paying foreign carriers directly for better service (like PE or SAUA). Same idea. I don't want to fly a specific aircraft type (MAX) nor a specific carrier (UA metal) so I pay more to fly something else.

RNE Dec 15, 2019 10:33 am

What a laugh we will have next year when flying aboard a 737-MAX and rereading these dire posts.

RNE, can't wait.

TravellingMan Dec 15, 2019 10:42 am


Originally Posted by RNE (Post 31842355)
RNE, can't wait.

You probably will have to wait as AA has pushed it out until April and we all know how these dates keep slipping. ;)

Xyzzy Dec 15, 2019 11:04 am

B737MAX - Archive
 

Originally Posted by moondog (Post 31840052)
If a high enough percentage of passengers are unwilling to fly on MAX, it will fail.

There were similar predictions of doom and gloom for the DC-10. Am I the :confused:nly one who recalls the problems with that aircraft?

transportprof Dec 15, 2019 11:06 am


Originally Posted by clubord (Post 31841705)
That’s a bold prediction.

They can barely keep that operation going at the size it is now. Good luck finding pilots to fly at those pay rates in today’s environment.


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 31841968)
The cargo conversion idea honestly never crossed my mind until I saw the post you quoted, but it makes sense on the surface. Confident pilots will certainly be willing to fly MAX, and if their employers can fetch MAX at a deep discount, this might be a great outcome for all.

The MAX will become the DC-10 (and MD-11) of the 21st century. Lots (but not all) of those birds moved over to cargo flying after their un-grounding, once after it became clear that their reputation had been permanently tarnished from the shortcuts that were made to rush the design to market. Does that remind anyone else of the MAX?

JimInOhio Dec 15, 2019 11:20 am


Originally Posted by transportprof (Post 31842451)
The MAX will become the DC-10 (and MD-11) of the 21st century. Lots (but not all) of those birds moved over to cargo flying after their un-grounding, once after it became clear that their reputation had been permanently tarnished from the shortcuts that were made to rush the design to market. Does that remind anyone else of the MAX?

The DC-10 was briefly grounded in 1979 and I flew many flights on DC-10s for about 20 years after that. Here's a worthwhile article comparing the two aircraft:

https://simpleflying.com/dc-10-737-max-grounding/

fly18725 Dec 15, 2019 11:37 am


Originally Posted by STS-134 (Post 31842197)
Demand is dependent on two other variables: supply and price. If people aren't willing to fly the MAX, at any price, then the curves just shift and prices rise.

In 2021, I'll likely be paying more to fly each segment, not because of the MAX issue specifically, but because of Scott Kirby's changes to MileagePlus. Instead of paying UA indirectly for E+ (through mileage runs and creative routings on UA metal), I'll be paying foreign carriers directly for better service (like PE or SAUA). Same idea. I don't want to fly a specific aircraft type (MAX) nor a specific carrier (UA metal) so I pay more to fly something else.

Southwest has talked about the surveys of passengers it conducted. About 3/4 either don’t care what type of plane they fly on or will not avoid the MAX. Most of the remaining group would probably return in a short period of time.

We need to remember that FlyerTalk is in no way representative of the broader public.

cmd320 Dec 15, 2019 12:09 pm


Originally Posted by RNE (Post 31842355)
What a laugh we will have next year when flying aboard a 737-MAX and rereading these dire posts.

RNE, can't wait.

Not seeing that in my future.

YuropFlyer Dec 15, 2019 12:24 pm


Originally Posted by RNE (Post 31842355)
What a laugh we will have next year when flying aboard a 737-MAX and rereading these dire posts.

RNE, can't wait.

Which month are we talking about here?

Just so we may poke fun at you when your flight eventually happens on an Airbus then :p

Visconti Dec 15, 2019 12:39 pm


Originally Posted by YuropFlyer (Post 31842650)
Which month are we talking about here?

This sounds fun! Define some parameters and have FTers place some bets, one side or the other. Revisit, and let's see which group was right.

DenverBrian Dec 15, 2019 6:50 pm

No more places to park 'em?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/15/boei...j-reports.html


Boeing cut 737 Max production in April by 20% from 52 aircraft a month to 42 a month in the wake of a second fatal crash of the best-selling plane within five months. Regulators around the world responded to those crashes by grounding the aircraft.

Boeing last week acknowledged that regulators aren’t likely to recertify the planes by the end of the year, as the Chicago-based manufacturer had previously forecast. A further cut or a suspension of production would further weigh on Boeing, which is facing a rising bill from the Max’s grounding. The company took a nearly $5 billion after-tax charge in the second quarter to compensate airlines hit by the flight ban.

cmd320 Dec 15, 2019 6:58 pm


Originally Posted by DenverBrian (Post 31843602)

I suppose they could just start scrapping the ones that are parked and make room for more to roll off the assembly line...


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