Correct - Boeing dropped the 757 too soon. Airlines need the capacity of the 757 and even the 757-300. UA and DL both fly 757-300s out of DCA, because of slot limits. UA using it for their once a day flight to SFO and on one DEN flight.

It wasn't Boeing that dropped the 757, it was the airlines. Boeing would have happily built more, if airlines had purchased them. The airlines didn't so, Boeing didn't have any choice.

The 757 is a very capable airplane. Its problem is that you have to pay for those capabilities on every flight even though you only occasionally need them.

It's also a lot of fun to fly.

If a plane costs $12B to develop and you can charge $2M more than the prior model, does it really make sense to move forward if there is a potential market of 3,000 airplanes? Even if you can get $5M more, you’re not covering inflation or the cost of capital.

For all the crap “beancounters” get, they do keep companies in business and paychecks flowing.

After those initial 3,000 planes are phased out, you'd presumably be better positioned to get replacement orders if updating a 2020 design v a 1970 design.

Because Boeing never updated it. They were too busy pitching 737NGs to everyone.

At the time, there was no need for airlines to order them because many had very large fleets which were not in need of replacement. Now things are very different.

Even if Boeing kept the 757 available, I think it would have a very hard time selling against the A321NEO/LR/XLR.

+1 The penny-wise, pound foolish wall-street analyst non-sense that Smisik, and now Parker are deep into, is exactly how Boeing has been managed quarter to quarter for the last 15 years. The short term Math is: "well, we can sell a 737 for $100m, and sell 600 of them a year, and since we can only get $10m more for a new plane, don't spent the $10B, and just bank the $30M profit on each 737, hot damn, $1.8B in profit!"

But the reality is that 5 years from now Airbus will be selling 1000 single plane a year, earning $40M profit on each one, because they are better aircraft, and Boeing will be lucky to be selling 500 single aisle plane, at $20M profit each. Over a few years, you repay the development costs, and if you don't invest you dig yourself a deeper and deeper hole as you have to discount your inferior product to a smaller and smaller market.

Airbus has been slowly overtaking the 737 with the A320, and now with the A321neo being basically unmatched by Boeing. Airbus now has a clear lead in orders+deliveries: 6635 and raising for the neo, while Boeing only has 4934 and falling for the MAX.

You're probably right which is all the more reason Boeing, in hindsight, should have been looking at a clean-sheet narrowbody design. The strategy was to eliminate the 757 in favor of the even older 737, thinking it could functionally be its replacement. To some extent they were right but only in the short term. Take a poll of FT members and I think the overwhelming response will be the 737 is the inferior aircraft.

That decision isn't made in a vacuum. The manufacturer takes new design proposals to its customers and the decision to launch is based on what he customers want to buy. The customers overwhelming wanted an updated, more efficient, less expensive, 737 that could be delivered sooner instead of an all-new design that, while even more efficient, would have been more expensive and not available until a number of years later. Boeing could have ignored their customers and pressed ahead with the new design but most of the airlines would not have waited for them.

To my knowledge there's nothing wrong with the A380 at this point? The program was heavily subsidized yes, however the aircraft itself has been fantastic. I'd venture as far as to say it's the best plane you can fly on today.

Agreed, or at the very least a next-gen 757 in the interim, and by now a clean-sheet narrow body and middle of the market aircraft. Both are desperately needed by Boeing who seems completely stagnant at this point. The only thing Boeing has managed in the last decade is re-engining two existing aircraft.

Except that nobody wants to buy them and Airbus is shutting down the line in 2021.

That's not really relevant to the safety/comfort of the aircraft though...