For me, post COVID-19 travel will not happen until there is a viable treatment.
But realistically, if countries still require 14 days self quarantine upon arrival, I don't think many people will be willing to get on planes and travel.

I’m seeing maybe some limited domestic travel in q3 or q4.

all international travel will be reviewed and approved on a case by case basis by someone at the c- level. But don’t anticipate approvals this year.

2021 might see limited international travel ramping up from there

im estimating 2023 before my travel patterns return fully to 2019 levels

I would have to agree with OP that this is near the peak.

Using SARS as the roadmap (Note - COVID-19 is very similar to SARS), SARS peaks around end of April/beginning of May.

But at the same time, COVID-19 impacts more than SARS. So its impact will last longer than SARS. I would say everything will start getting back to normal sometimes around October.

The problem is not the quarantine. The real issue is countries will start limit travel in light of COVID-19. While we are not yet certain the virus origin, rest assured that it is conclusive to say the virus spread from Mainland China (Wuhan) to other places. The Schengen's open border has made this even worst. The U.S. leniency with European countries also takes a big part of it.

I would not believe that in the post-COVID-19 world, no country will resume the way how we travel before. As an example, many measures adopted post-9/11 are still here and they have been tightened even more. The travel industry will not be recovered at least years after COVID-19. At the minimum, the lenient visa policies towards Chinese (Mainland) citizens will disappear (and the Chinese has contributed significantly for the last few years).

Back to the story, if UA does not have the guarantee from Apple to fill up the B772/W, PVG won't be resumed so quick. But don't forget - Apple's productivity is somehow harmed by this. So if you say Apple's travel volume will return back to similar level, it would be a lie (as I assume Apple is looking for alternative sites already).

That is peak *hospital resource utilization*, not peak viral infection / case count. Not everyone who gets this thing is hospitalized.

I'm a data analyst at the day job and have been following this pretty closely. Italy hasn't even reached a peak for active case count yet and they're weeks ahead of us in the US.

From what I've looked at, gotta be at least another week or so until Italy's active case count peaks and starts to go down. US another couple weeks past that. Probably early May.

I am not flying to China if they force me to stay in a crappy hotel for 14 days.

Or any place under government quarantine.

the collapse in oil prices should hit united's IAH hub pretty hard.

I imagine C5 and AW are done xjt and G7 on the chopping block as UAL tries to get scope concessions from its pilot group. Mesa SKW and RAH fly 170s at reduced frequencies as 50 seaters parked.

Reading up thread there are numerous views/opinions and theories as the where we are with the status of the virus and what recovery/re opening might look like.
If I can help anybody in any way manage the situation please feel free to PM me.:rolleyes:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...fce0ebcb44.jpg

The only LHR routes that might be in danger are DEN-LHR and maybe IAH-LHR -- and if they cut either, they'll replace them with EWR-LHR flights to match.

LHR slots are too valuable to be abandoned. As soon as the airport authorities stop waiving the slot rules, every airline that's still in business will restore all of their LHR flights.

My thoughts too. Pre-Covid-19, these flights were often full, and BR also had 3 flights SFO-TPE a day! However we must wait for Taiwan government to lift ban on arriving and transit pax. I think a month would be optimistic. :)

Different areas have different peak dates. For example, my area (the hardest hit in the US) has likely reached the apex of the curve, according to local officials.

Definitely looking forward to get back in the air as soon as it is sensible to do so. I am aiming to make up the lost flying in 2H (would have had around 130K BIS by the end of May).

Exactly. All this speculation about "peaking" and "post-Covid-19" is premature. The virus is out there, and the only reason that we may see a "peak" anytime soon is due largely to the fact that most folks are taking the whole "distancing" thing very seriously.

Until there is a vaccine or other effective treatment/cure I'm afraid it's just too dangerous to let our guard down, especially if you're in a higher-risk category. I'm slowly coming to the realization that this may be a rather long slog.

Please continue the discussion on COVID-19 peaking and other purely COVID-19 issues in the Coronavirus and travel

Let's return to the OP's topic of post-COVID-19 UA travel, when ever that might be

WineCountryUA
UA coModerator

My prediction when UA will start daily flights:

July: Europe, Japan, S. Korea, SIN and Taiwan when entry ban is lifted

August: China including HKG when PRC government lifts the entry ban and forced quarantine.

I consider myself optimistic.

AC has been operating daily YVR<->HKG until recent weeks, and is still operating a few flights per week currently. US airlines suspended flights to/from HKG, not the other way around.