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-   -   UA life post COVID-19 recovery (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/2015387-ua-life-post-covid-19-recovery.html)

n8-the-gr8 Apr 7, 20 8:56 pm

UA life post COVID-19 recovery
 

Originally Posted by Plane-is-home (Post 32274285)
I wish they wouldnít have halved the qualification requirements. 2021 gate licing will be brutal

Iím not sure what travel demand youíre expecting in 2021 but it definitely wonít be as bad as it is now. Think more about how many travelers there will be total and not how many have status.

Do you remember traveling in 2009/2010? It was certainly a problem sometimes on business heavy times but ďgate liceĒ then include first class, 1K and more. It was roughly equivalent to the preboarding scramble now.

Iím not so worried about this.

IAH-OIL-TRASH Apr 7, 20 9:51 pm


Originally Posted by n8-the-gr8 (Post 32274348)
Iím not sure what travel demand youíre expecting in 2021 but it definitely wonít be as bad as it is now. Think more about how many travelers there will be total and not how many have status...

a couple of things to consider:
1) the fewer flyers are not going to be spread across the same number of flights. UA will be significantly paring the schedule to get profitable loads.
2) on these reduced flights, Iím guessing one will see a higher fraction of elite flyers - itís what they do. Leisure travel Is likely to drop more as a percentage of passengers than business travel.

narvik Apr 8, 20 6:31 am


Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH (Post 32274420)
Leisure travel Is likely to drop more as a percentage of passengers than business travel.

Possible.

But there's also the possibility that after being cooped-up for so long, even the leisure travelers might come back in droves.
Similarly for going out to eat and to bars/pubs.

Overcompensation for being "locked up" too long.

FlyingHighlander Apr 8, 20 6:37 am


Originally Posted by narvik (Post 32275143)
Possible.

But there's also the possibility that after being cooped-up for so long, even the leisure travelers might come back in droves.
Similarly for going out to eat and to bars/pubs.

Overcompensation for being "locked up" too long.

Exactly. Everyone I know is like a coiled spring, ready to finally take that delayed vacation. Lots of people will have a ton of vacation time to burn in 2H2020 (unless employers permit rollover/cash out)

ryman554 Apr 8, 20 7:22 am


Originally Posted by deskover54 (Post 32272341)
where did you hear this? please please please bring this back. i don't want to have to transit in tokyo or elsewhere. PVG-SFO would be SUPER amazing

Not so super amazing when one considers the 14day quarantine requirement for any new arrival, citizen or not.

fumje Apr 8, 20 8:27 am


Originally Posted by ryman554 (Post 32275257)
Not so super amazing when one considers the 14day quarantine requirement for any new arrival, citizen or not.

But if you have to go, much better to have a direct flight.

notquiteaff Apr 8, 20 11:59 am


Originally Posted by narvik (Post 32275143)
But there's also the possibility that after being cooped-up for so long, even the leisure travelers might come back in droves.
Similarly for going out to eat and to bars/pubs.

Overcompensation for being "locked up" too long.

How long have you been locked up so far? (three weeks here)

How many times do non-Flyertalker leisure travelers go on vacation in a normal year?

How much money do people who were laid off/furloughed have to spend on overcompensation vacations?

Sure, there will be some, but I very much believe that demand will be low compared to last year this time.

uastarflyer Apr 8, 20 1:26 pm

Agree. And UA agrees

Thats one reason why they will soften the Premier requirements in 2021 for 2022 status as well.

Finalcall Apr 9, 20 12:04 am


Originally Posted by notquiteaff (Post 32276161)
How long have you been locked up so far? (three weeks here)

How many times do non-Flyertalker leisure travelers go on vacation in a normal year?

How much money do people who were laid off/furloughed have to spend on overcompensation vacations?

Sure, there will be some, but I very much believe that demand will be low compared to last year this time.

I won't be so sure. China just ended a months-long nationwide quarantine, and tourists are flocking to domestic attractions in droves. Huangshan, a scenic UNESCO site, received humongous crowds after re-opening. Many movie cinemas, amusement parks etc. recently were also ordered closed after re-opening due to fears that another outbreak might occur.

Maybe most of those guys drove or took the bus rather than flew, but the point is that when people have been cooped up for a long time, there's a big build-up of urge to go SOMEWHERE after things "go back to normal". When the government lifts our stay-at-home rules, I'll bet that many attractions will be, if not as swamped as Huangshan, quite busy.

phkc070408 Apr 9, 20 12:54 am

UA life post COVID-19 recovery
 
Since it looks like the US is near the peak of the virus, I figured it might be a good time to speculate about what life will be life on United as we recover and after it's all over.

I was thinking about some routes that may not be restored, and IAH-SYD stands out like a sore thumb to me. I can also see the frequent LHR routes slightly reduced for a while even after most everything else is at the new normal.

Also, Forbes had an article about PVG being one of the first routes to be restored, even if only once weekly at first.

IMissThe747 Apr 9, 20 1:49 am

I sure hope we see a quick comeback of 871 and 872 to Taipei. So far my June reservations are confirmed. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Taiwan is one of the safest places in the world right now, though, and who knows how long it will be before (non-Taiwanese citizen/resident) passengers from the USA are allowed back into the island.

LondonElite Apr 9, 20 1:55 am


Originally Posted by phkc070408 (Post 32277916)
Since it looks like the US is near the peak of the virus, I figured it might be a good time to speculate about what life will be life on United as we recover and after it's all over.

I was thinking about some routes that may not be restored, and IAH-SYD stands out like a sore thumb to me. I can also see the frequent LHR routes slightly reduced for a while even after most everything else is at the new normal.

Also, Forbes had an article about PVG being one of the first routes to be restored, even if only once weekly at first.

Near the peak? Iíd say maybe a month or two from it.

narvik Apr 9, 20 3:18 am


Originally Posted by notquiteaff (Post 32276161)
How much money do people who were laid off/furloughed have to spend on overcompensation vacations?

Since when does not having any money mean you can't fly? ;)

And Uplift is still a thing with United:
https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly...ht/uplift.html

phkc070408 Apr 9, 20 3:33 am


Originally Posted by LondonElite (Post 32277986)
Near the peak? Iíd say maybe a month or two from it.

COVID-19

https://www.talktomira.com/post/when...ial-distancing

getagb Apr 9, 20 4:02 am


Originally Posted by phkc070408 (Post 32278095)

From this link:


by forecasting the hospital demand and death rates, researchers were able to predict peak outbreak of COVID-19 by state if social distancing is maintained.
Itís hard to see why infections wouldnít simply start to go back up if social distancing were eased before widely available antibody testing, vaccine, and/or cures. None of those seem likely anytime soon.


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