Upgrade Success Rate for 2018
Dec 28, 2018, 6:53 am
#1
Used to be 'TheManWhoFlewTooMuch'
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: SFO, SAN
Programs: United 1K 2MM, Delta Diamond emeritus, Marriott Bonvoy Titanium, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 101
Upgrade Success Rate for 2018
I'm done flying for the year, so I have been looking back on the flights I took. I'm curious if others, like me, have seen a decrease in upgrade success this year.
My upgrade cleared on 39% of the United flights I took in 2018, vs. 44% in 2017. (Upgrade success rate on Delta was 67% this year.)
I will lose my Delta status in January, but remain 1K on United for the 22nd consecutive year.
My upgrade cleared on 39% of the United flights I took in 2018, vs. 44% in 2017. (Upgrade success rate on Delta was 67% this year.)
I will lose my Delta status in January, but remain 1K on United for the 22nd consecutive year.
Dec 28, 2018, 7:23 am
#3
Join Date: Apr 2014
Programs: DL Gold, UA nothing (ex-GS), Marriott lifetime Plat, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 920
I’m GS and noticed this too. Most of the CPUs I got were tickets bought a few days before the flight - but not so close to the flight that first was full. I suspect many of these tickets were B/M fares, so technically Instant Upgrades not CPUs, although they usually cleared at the gate.
As they say, want first buy first.
As they say, want first buy first.
Dec 28, 2018, 7:36 am
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: UA*Lifetime GS, Hyatt* Lifetime Globalist
Posts: 12,332
As a GS, I have noticed decrease in upgrade success in 2018. I always apply RPU for domestic flights and never rely on CPU.
Surprisingly I am not doing well on flights to/from Florida and hub airports, particularly IAD and IAH. IAD and FLL are my two hometown airports and I have not been able to upgrade despite applying RPU at tickeing months in advance.
I also found ex-MCO is another tough place to clear upgrade in the winter months.
Internationally, I have been 100% successful. 14 out of 14 in 2018.
Surprisingly I am not doing well on flights to/from Florida and hub airports, particularly IAD and IAH. IAD and FLL are my two hometown airports and I have not been able to upgrade despite applying RPU at tickeing months in advance.
I also found ex-MCO is another tough place to clear upgrade in the winter months.
Internationally, I have been 100% successful. 14 out of 14 in 2018.
Dec 28, 2018, 8:12 am
#5
Used to be 'TheManWhoFlewTooMuch'
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: SFO, SAN
Programs: United 1K 2MM, Delta Diamond emeritus, Marriott Bonvoy Titanium, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 101
My international flights are mostly paid J or P, but I did burn 2 GPUs in November on a flight SFO-CDG, both cleared weeks ahead of time.
Dec 28, 2018, 8:17 am
#6
Used to be 'TheManWhoFlewTooMuch'
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: SFO, SAN
Programs: United 1K 2MM, Delta Diamond emeritus, Marriott Bonvoy Titanium, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 101
My personal rule of thumb is that I won't apply an RPU to any flight less than 4 hours. My success rate with RPUs is only 25% as noted above.
I do a lot of hops from SFO-SAN, and my CPU success has been lackluster on those. I feel like upgrades are better on the first and last flights of the day, but that's just an impression; I haven't done a deep dive on the data for dayparts.
I do a lot of hops from SFO-SAN, and my CPU success has been lackluster on those. I feel like upgrades are better on the first and last flights of the day, but that's just an impression; I haven't done a deep dive on the data for dayparts.
Dec 28, 2018, 8:56 am
#7
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,620
This has been a dismal year for me with upgrades. If you cut out the run of upgrades I got in the spring and early summer in and out of Hawaii when the flights were empty because of the volcano I would say my success rate was at best 20%. I apply an instrument to basically all flights (domestic) and TPACS and TATLs I now only purchase business/Polaris as I have NEVER found R/P space available at booking. I will probably end up burning 9 GPUs and 1 RPU next month between myself and my wife. We have several in play in Jan but not optimistic about any of them clearing at this point. Clearly my two main issues are lack of flexibility and flying out of SFO were GS is king.
Dec 28, 2018, 9:41 am
#11
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,620
Likewise, I do a fair amount of SFO-SAN and even with an instrument in play I have had almost zero upgrades for really over the past 2 years. Ironically the one trip I cleared on from SAN to SFO they cancelled the flight. I gifted a GPU to a family friend returning to SAN last PM and it didn't clear (also didn't clear on his flight up from SAN) admittedly he has no elite status.
Dec 28, 2018, 9:45 am
#12
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: SLC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 240
SLC based, I'm batting 42% this year. Slightly less than last year at 47%. But, still better than my days schlepping out of LAX. I could only get 2 GPUs to stick on SLC-IAH-SYD-LAX-SLC this year. The other trips I just bought up front as I didn't want to risk it.
Dec 28, 2018, 9:52 am
#13
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: SFO
Programs: United 1MM GS, Marriott Platinum Elite, Hilton Diamond, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 283
100% CPU rate this year as a GS out of SFO, but granted maybe only about 20 CPU eligible segments. I did SDC once to a different flight to grab the upgrade and one other flight I was walked up to first after boarding economy.
Dec 28, 2018, 9:57 am
#14
Senior Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: San Francisco, CA
Programs: UA Plat/2MM [23-yr. 1K, now emeritus] clawing way back to WN-A List; MR LT Titanium; HY Whateverist.
Posts: 12,396
Being based out of SFO and able to buy lower fares in advance was a recipe for steadily declining upgrades out of SFO, since the merger. That was a major reason why I did not mind dropping to Plat. after 23 years as 1K.
My last year of 1K, I was at about a 28% upgrade success rate. This year, I cleared about 12%. So in the drop to Plat, I've gone from typically 2nd to 6th on the UG list to typically 6th to 18th on the list. But the bottom line is at Plat, when the doors close, I'm still in the same exit row seat I typically sat in as 1K.
My last year of 1K, I was at about a 28% upgrade success rate. This year, I cleared about 12%. So in the drop to Plat, I've gone from typically 2nd to 6th on the UG list to typically 6th to 18th on the list. But the bottom line is at Plat, when the doors close, I'm still in the same exit row seat I typically sat in as 1K.
Dec 28, 2018, 10:23 am
#15
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
In 2018, my RPU success rate on domestic flights was 50%. Only 20 flights with First Class which means that I used 10 RPUs. Which means that I had to take my wife's RPUs as I did not have 10 in my account.
CPU success rate was 0%. Most probably some of the flights might have cleared if I had not already applied RPUs.
Upgrades on International long hauls: 83% (5 out of 6 flights). But some were miles + copay as I gave some of my 6 GPUs to my wife who was Platinum. She was able to upgrade on international long hauls 80% (4 out of 5 flights).
CPU success rate was 0%. Most probably some of the flights might have cleared if I had not already applied RPUs.
Upgrades on International long hauls: 83% (5 out of 6 flights). But some were miles + copay as I gave some of my 6 GPUs to my wife who was Platinum. She was able to upgrade on international long hauls 80% (4 out of 5 flights).