Darlox

Uh... that's not really indicative of anything other than perhaps a lack of flexibility on your part. Australia is a leisure route for me, since my wife has a bunch of family near ADL. I can honestly say that we haven't gone down anytime in the last 3 years where our upgrades HAVEN'T cleared. (Though one of those was via AKL.)

But upgrades, or lack thereof, don't have anything to do with pricing accuracy. They could be selling those fares 50% off on corporate contracts, filling them with last minute TOD buy-ups, or just fare-matching competitive fares from city pairs that aren't cities you're looking at. Or, they could be going to regular flyers who just have higher status, or a higher fare code, than you...

cyclogenesis

Oh you are 100% correct. Zere flexibility as the tax payer pays my fare. I end up going to arrive the day before I do buisiness and leave the day I finish. So I end up on the Friday LAX departure and the Friday MEL departure I watch the mid week flights leave with lots of upgraded PAX including staff.

However, basic econ101 states the cost will rise/fall to what the market will sustain.

Darlox

*laugh* This is not a crack at you, because in general your comment should be correct. But the airline biz has so many distortions and knock-on effects, that there's pretty much no industry LESS subject to the whims of Econ101 than this. It runs almost entirely on misinformation and lack of consumer knowledge, a fruit-salad of poor and out-dated regulation, and the craziest pseudo-anti-oligarchic arrangements of companies that simultaneously collude and back-stab each other, of pretty much any industry in the Western world. I'd be willing to bet that 90% of air travellers couldn't tell you what the real cost of their ticket was, vis-a-vis the fare they paid, if their lives depended on it!

The best you can hope for is gradual shifts due to macroeconomic trends. FlyerTalk is a veritable temple to the suggestion that travelers (both savvy and non-) will make unpredictable and inexplicable self-damaging decisions when it comes to air travel.

findark

For whatever reason, ANZ seems to fly with comparatively high J fares (I almost never see anything under 4k) and comparatively more upgrades compared to US-Asia or Europe.

spin88

100% agree. Most of the usual rules just don't really apply. there is little variable cost (the plane will fly regardless, and the extra weight of bags and person only adds a few bucks to the fuel bill, unless the flight is ULH) and almost endless substitution. There are also major almost monopolistic lock in effects in certain markets and with certain buyers (in FF programs).

To just give a simple example, using the EWR-SIN flight discussed earlier. Assuming UA will get 30 discount corporate J sales on that route (combo of via code share through NRT and via SFO) then pricing at $12,000, yielding after 40% discount 30 x $7200 ($216,000) is better than selling 10 seats at $8000 and then those 30 "managed" seats at $4800 after discount ($224,000) if UA can get $1000 or so co-pay on an upgrade or via selling a discounted J to SIN on a connection elsewhere.

TominLazybrook

UA has simply decided that theyre going to charge a massive premium out of their hubs. If people are dumb enough to pay it, theyll keep charging it. For me at least, Ive just walked away from them on international flights. Heck Im flying fully paid AM business class to SCL and EZE in lie flat business for less than UA charges for coach. Flew BA to CPH in coach and found a 800 dollar TA upgrade both ways...total fare...2400 usd. Ill probably be flying AM to Asia early next year too. From IAH its no big deal. And thousands cheaper. No need to fool with points, miles, or status when you can just buy the ticket for 3 grand (or more) cheaper.