UA Schedule Change pattern
Sep 28, 2017, 5:53 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2000
Posts: 6,544
UA Schedule Change pattern
AA releases schedule changes weekly on Sunday mornings to firm up flights about 20 weeks out.
Does UA have a pattern? Specifically, looking at a flight in mid Jan 2018 and wondering if the schedule today reflects the original placeholder schedule as released 330 days before departure. If still the orginal, any way to predict when UA will firm up the schedule?
Does UA have a pattern? Specifically, looking at a flight in mid Jan 2018 and wondering if the schedule today reflects the original placeholder schedule as released 330 days before departure. If still the orginal, any way to predict when UA will firm up the schedule?
Sep 28, 2017, 6:13 pm
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: BOS/EAP
Programs: UA 1K, MR LTT, HH Dia, Amex Plat
Posts: 32,017
I already got some schedule changes for January, so they have started to firm up their plans. Will there be additional changes? I'd say that is likely for January as they see how the low/holiday season is shaping up.
Sep 28, 2017, 6:15 pm
#4
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: CHS
Programs: UA GS, Bonvoy Amabassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 2,589
I booked flights in Sep 2016 for Jul 2017 CHS-IAD-HNL-IAD-HNL I had 16 changes throughout the roughly 8 months. 2 of the 16 were self inflicted (I class cleared) but the other 14 were all schedule changes or swapping aircraft (763 changed to 764 for return flight)
EVERY schedule change, including the I class was on a Sunday except one, when they swapped planes.
Last change was in early May, approx 60 days from flight
EVERY schedule change, including the I class was on a Sunday except one, when they swapped planes.
Last change was in early May, approx 60 days from flight
Sep 28, 2017, 6:25 pm
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Houston
Programs: UA Plat, Marriott Gold
Posts: 12,691
UA firms up about 3 months out last I looked.
edit: Still does. Looking at flights in the month of September 2017. Using the schedule released 2017-9-1 as 'truth'. Schedule column is the date the schedule came out. Percentages are how many flights are the same as the 'truth' schedule.
Taking a very literal definition: change to any of flight number, origin, destination, departure time, and arrival time counts as different.
Looks like express has a little more literal churn later, probably due to flight number changes or trivial departure/arrival time changes.
Taking a looser definition: change to origin, destination, or departure time by more than 10 min counts as a change.
At 4 months out you're a 50%/50% chance of a schedule change using the loose criteria.
edit: Still does. Looking at flights in the month of September 2017. Using the schedule released 2017-9-1 as 'truth'. Schedule column is the date the schedule came out. Percentages are how many flights are the same as the 'truth' schedule.
Taking a very literal definition: change to any of flight number, origin, destination, departure time, and arrival time counts as different.
Code:
schedule | mainline | express ------------+----------+--------- 2016-10-01 | 5% | 1% 2016-11-01 | 5% | 1% 2016-12-01 | 5% | 1% 2017-01-01 | 5% | 1% 2017-02-01 | 11% | 1% 2017-03-01 | 12% | 1% 2017-04-01 | 13% | 1% 2017-05-01 | 14% | 2% 2017-06-01 | 26% | 16% 2017-07-01 | 86% | 85% 2017-08-01 | 98% | 97% 2017-09-01 | 100% | 100%
Taking a looser definition: change to origin, destination, or departure time by more than 10 min counts as a change.
Code:
schedule | mainline | express ------------+----------+--------- 2016-10-01 | 41% | 38% 2016-11-01 | 41% | 39% 2016-12-01 | 42% | 39% 2017-01-01 | 42% | 39% 2017-02-01 | 44% | 39% 2017-03-01 | 45% | 39% 2017-04-01 | 49% | 43% 2017-05-01 | 51% | 45% 2017-06-01 | 71% | 70% 2017-07-01 | 96% | 97% 2017-08-01 | 99% | 99% 2017-09-01 | 100% | 100%
Last edited by mduell; Sep 28, 2017 at 7:07 pm
Oct 16, 2017, 3:52 pm
#9
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: YQR
Programs: Nexus/GE, UA/MPG, Bonvoy Tit, LTP
Posts: 1,294
LOL. Every flight I take has multiple schedule changes right up to the week before. However, I live in Saskatchewan and rely on AC to get me to a connecting airport for UA. What complicates things is that Saskatchewan doesn't change clocks in the Spring or Fall. I would have thought that it would be easy to program into the schedule but depending upon the time of year and the direction we fly, what was a reasonable connection at booking becomes unworkable and everything has to be rescheduled. Usually 2 or 3 times because AC seems to tweak things all the time.
Oct 16, 2017, 9:39 pm
#10
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 575
UA firms up about 3 months out last I looked.
edit: Still does. Looking at flights in the month of September 2017. Using the schedule released 2017-9-1 as 'truth'. Schedule column is the date the schedule came out. Percentages are how many flights are the same as the 'truth' schedule.
Taking a very literal definition: change to any of flight number, origin, destination, departure time, and arrival time counts as different.
Looks like express has a little more literal churn later, probably due to flight number changes or trivial departure/arrival time changes.
Taking a looser definition: change to origin, destination, or departure time by more than 10 min counts as a change.
At 4 months out you're a 50%/50% chance of a schedule change using the loose criteria.
edit: Still does. Looking at flights in the month of September 2017. Using the schedule released 2017-9-1 as 'truth'. Schedule column is the date the schedule came out. Percentages are how many flights are the same as the 'truth' schedule.
Taking a very literal definition: change to any of flight number, origin, destination, departure time, and arrival time counts as different.
Code:
schedule | mainline | express ------------+----------+--------- 2016-10-01 | 5% | 1% 2016-11-01 | 5% | 1% 2016-12-01 | 5% | 1% 2017-01-01 | 5% | 1% 2017-02-01 | 11% | 1% 2017-03-01 | 12% | 1% 2017-04-01 | 13% | 1% 2017-05-01 | 14% | 2% 2017-06-01 | 26% | 16% 2017-07-01 | 86% | 85% 2017-08-01 | 98% | 97% 2017-09-01 | 100% | 100%
Taking a looser definition: change to origin, destination, or departure time by more than 10 min counts as a change.
Code:
schedule | mainline | express ------------+----------+--------- 2016-10-01 | 41% | 38% 2016-11-01 | 41% | 39% 2016-12-01 | 42% | 39% 2017-01-01 | 42% | 39% 2017-02-01 | 44% | 39% 2017-03-01 | 45% | 39% 2017-04-01 | 49% | 43% 2017-05-01 | 51% | 45% 2017-06-01 | 71% | 70% 2017-07-01 | 96% | 97% 2017-08-01 | 99% | 99% 2017-09-01 | 100% | 100%
Jun 20, 2018, 9:59 am
#12
Join Date: Aug 2011
Programs: Marriott Gold, Hilton Diamond, Radisson Rewards Gold, Best Western Diamond Select
Posts: 1,856
Just got a schedule change for IAH-SAV for next January from 740 pm to 615. Pretty big change this far out but odd since the plane is staying overnight as it is in SAV.
Jun 20, 2018, 10:01 am
#13
Join Date: Mar 2012
Programs: Mileage Plus 1K; Marriott Platinum; Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,355
It's probably a result of crew rest times before a downstream outbound flight from SAV the next day, whose schedule will also have changed.
Jun 21, 2018, 11:54 am
#14
Join Date: Sep 2008
Programs: UA 1P
Posts: 320