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A Comprehensive Look at Domestic First Class Monetization (FCM) on United

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Old Feb 16, 2016, 6:52 pm
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Last edit by: findark
Table 1: United First fare differential versus same fare in United Economy
Code:
lax |   99    --
sea |  129   129    --
den |  129   129   159    --
dfw |  159   159   199x  129    --
msp |  199   199   159x  129   129x   --
iah |  199   159   199   129    79   159    --
ord |  199   199   199   129   129    99   129    --
atl |  249   199x  249x  159   129x  129   129   129    --
iad |  299   249   249   159   159   129   159   129   129    --
ewr |  460‡  451‡  299   199   159   159   159   129   129    79    --
fll |  299   249x  299x  199   159x  159x  129   159    --   129   159x   --
bos |  299   299x  299x  199   199x  159x  199   129   129x   99    79   159x
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
       sfo   lax   sea   den   dfw   msp   iah   ord   atl   iad   ewr   fll
x indicates that there is no normal nonstop service between the city pair. Up to two transfers (connections) are free in each direction.
‡ indicates there is no /UPDI fare published for this route. Amount is the difference between lowest available UP fare and current Economy (lowest), provided for reference.
-- indicates United does not publish a fare for this city pair.


Table 1.5: United First fare differential as a function of flight distance (partly speculation)
Code:
 total distance   fare differential
   min   max            ($)
------------------------------------
         299             79
   300   499             99
   500   999            129
  1000  1499            159
  1500  1999            199
  2000  2399            249
  2400                  299
Table 3: Minimum fare class with matched United First fare
Code:
lax |   K    -
sea |   K    K    -
den |   K    K    K    -
dfw |   K    K    L    K    -
msp |   K‡   K    L    K    K    -
iah |   L‡   K*   K‡   K    K‡   T‡    -
ord |   L    K*   L‡   L    K*   K*   K    -
atl |   K    K    L‡   K    K    K‡   K    K    -
iad |   T‡   K*   L‡   K‡   K    K*   K    K    K    -
ewr |   -    -    K    K    K    K‡   K    K*   K*   Q     -
fll |   K    K    L    K    K    K    K    K    -    K    K    -
bos |   K*   L‡   L    K    L    T    K    K    L    K    K    L
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
       sfo  lax  sea  den  dfw  msp  iah  ord  atl  iad  ewr  fll
- indicates no /UPDI fare is published for the route
‡ indicates the minimum matched fare is also the minimum published fare
* indicates that there is a lower, unmatched fare with the same basis letter as the lowest matched fare
The United Economy booking code hierarchy is: Y B M E U H Q V W S T L K G N
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A Comprehensive Look at Domestic First Class Monetization (FCM) on United

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Old Apr 17, 2016, 9:34 pm
  #91  
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Just came across this thread - awesome work, Kudos findark !!! ^^^
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Old Apr 18, 2016, 1:59 am
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Originally Posted by zombietooth
I got a $139- buy-up offer during OLCI at 24 hour window, a few days ago, and took it. Was this an outlier, because it seems like a fantastic deal?
That price is TOD territory; great for the lucky flyer receiving the offer and bad for any United elite hoping to upgrade. Personally, I think what a flyer pays for the original coach fare is (or should be) irrelevant to the flyer's first class purchase decision or United pricing strategy -- unless United wishes to be completely transparent about buy-ups from expensive coach tickets.
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Old Apr 18, 2016, 5:22 pm
  #93  
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Originally Posted by zombietooth
I got a $139- buy-up offer during OLCI at 24 hour window, a few days ago, and took it. Was this an outlier, because it seems like a fantastic deal?
Sounds like an outlier to me - I would expect $299
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Old Apr 27, 2016, 1:27 am
  #94  
 
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This is an amazing thread, thanks findark for all the info!

I'm now trying to figure out what on earth the website is doing. I have a trip coming up May 20. Full itinerary is:

SFO-IAD May 20. Fare code S.
ROA-SFO (via IAD) May 31. Fare code W.

Total round trip fare was $569.70.

Taking just the first flight as an example. If I price it right now, the one way price is $372. The first class fare is $671 -- which is exactly $299 more, the differential in this thread. So far so good. It reports the first class fare books into Z.

Yet, if I go into manage my reservation and click "redeem upgrade" OR go in to change my seat, it's offering me an upgrade to First for $752. Needless to say, this seems nonsense, as I could buy a whole new ticket in First for less.

I would expect the upgrade to be priced at the difference between my fare and the $671. Any ideas on what's going on here? I'm almost wondering if the website isn't seeing the Z fare, because technically it's a "business class" fare or something, and is charging me the differential to A? Or maybe just because this is a "prime time" SFO-IAD flight (the 948am on a Friday) so it's just not allowing the upgrade into Z?

In further oddities, it doesn't offer an upgrade at all on the return flight individually, but does offer to upgrade the whole itinerary for $1400. Go figure.
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Old Apr 27, 2016, 4:25 am
  #95  
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Originally Posted by Azmordean
This is an amazing thread, thanks findark for all the info!

I'm now trying to figure out what on earth the website is doing. I have a trip coming up May 20. Full itinerary is:

SFO-IAD May 20. Fare code S.
ROA-SFO (via IAD) May 31. Fare code W.

Total round trip fare was $569.70.

Taking just the first flight as an example. If I price it right now, the one way price is $372. The first class fare is $671 -- which is exactly $299 more, the differential in this thread. So far so good. It reports the first class fare books into Z.

Yet, if I go into manage my reservation and click "redeem upgrade" OR go in to change my seat, it's offering me an upgrade to First for $752. Needless to say, this seems nonsense, as I could buy a whole new ticket in First for less.

I would expect the upgrade to be priced at the difference between my fare and the $671. Any ideas on what's going on here? I'm almost wondering if the website isn't seeing the Z fare, because technically it's a "business class" fare or something, and is charging me the differential to A? Or maybe just because this is a "prime time" SFO-IAD flight (the 948am on a Friday) so it's just not allowing the upgrade into Z?

In further oddities, it doesn't offer an upgrade at all on the return flight individually, but does offer to upgrade the whole itinerary for $1400. Go figure.
Call United and see if you can *buy up* to the lowest F fare. It'll be a lot cheaper than the upgrade, and will earn additional mileage.
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Old Apr 28, 2016, 12:35 am
  #96  
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Originally Posted by helvetic
Call United and see if you can *buy up* to the lowest F fare. It'll be a lot cheaper than the upgrade, and will earn additional mileage.
This. The website upgrade prices are very rarely accurate. Could be skipping the Z bucket for any number of reasons, or could be pricing as an upfare to M or B with a clearing instant upgrade.

You should always be able to call in to reissue your ticket for the difference between fare paid and lowest available premium ticket. Mention GG BUYUP and/or HUCA as needed to avoid the change fee.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 10:33 am
  #97  
 
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I learned a lot from this post, and for a long time it seemed to be extremely accurate. In the last few months, though, I've noticed that there is a lot more variation in fare differentials between economy and first. For example, I was looking for flights between ORD and SFO on 11/10 yesterday. While many of the differentials remain at $200, a bunch are also higher. There seems to be a lot of variation in whether P fares are available.

Specifically, for the 6am ORD-SFO, an L fare is $169 and a P fare is $368. For 8:15, though, even though it is still at F9, P is not available, and the lowest available first fare is a Z for $500.

All 11 nonstops from ORD to SFO are at $169 for economy, all L fares. For first, six are at the $200 differential. Three are at a $331 differential and two are at a $543 differential. For many of those higher differentials, the flights are still at F9 (sometimes F8). So it's not as though the cabin is full.

Findark, I don't know how this fits with the consistency you observed originally. I have a flight from ORD to BOS every year around the same time, and my sense this year was that it was harder to find the $130 buyup this year than last (I pay a lot of attention to the differentials as my employer pays the coach fare and I typically buy up when I can get the standard differential that you found). Obviously this is just my personal experience, though, and I haven't provided much data, so I'd be curious to know whether you think things have been changing a bit or if you feel that the system has been consistent.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 11:22 am
  #98  
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Originally Posted by chance_the_napper
All 11 nonstops from ORD to SFO are at $169 for economy, all L fares. For first, six are at the $200 differential. Three are at a $331 differential and two are at a $543 differential. For many of those higher differentials, the flights are still at F9 (sometimes F8). So it's not as though the cabin is full.
UA is tighter with P and Z inventory on the more desirable flights, particularly the 772As with lie-flats.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 1:09 pm
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Originally Posted by Kacee
UA is tighter with P and Z inventory on the more desirable flights, particularly the 772As with lie-flats.
To add to this, I've found that buy-ups are $50 higher when on a widebody, e.g., $249 from ORD-SFO on a 772 versus $199 on a 753. In my experience, the fare class doesn't affect the upgrade price.

Also, a recent upgrade from SFO to KOA was $309 on a 739.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 1:42 pm
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Originally Posted by Kacee
UA is tighter with P and Z inventory on the more desirable flights, particularly the 772As with lie-flats.
Definitely true. My wife is flying on SAN-EWR in a couple months, and the flight happens to be on an sCO 752 (not sure why that's the case). Lowest fare to get to the lie-flats upfront was an A fare
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 4:14 pm
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Definitely true. My wife is flying on SAN-EWR in a couple months, and the flight happens to be on an sCO 752 (not sure why that's the case). Lowest fare to get to the lie-flats upfront was an A fare
P fare availability two months out SAN-EWR seem to be a pretty rare exception right now, even on the usual 737s.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 4:39 pm
  #102  
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Originally Posted by chance_the_napper
I learned a lot from this post, and for a long time it seemed to be extremely accurate. In the last few months, though, I've noticed that there is a lot more variation in fare differentials between economy and first. For example, I was looking for flights between ORD and SFO on 11/10 yesterday. While many of the differentials remain at $200, a bunch are also higher. There seems to be a lot of variation in whether P fares are available.

Specifically, for the 6am ORD-SFO, an L fare is $169 and a P fare is $368. For 8:15, though, even though it is still at F9, P is not available, and the lowest available first fare is a Z for $500.
This is consistent with the differential price model. Nowhere does it guarantee that First is exactly more than Economy by the differential; just that it will be at least that much more. In the cases you cite, UA is using the primary inventory (F/A/Z/P) to drive up the price of a ticket in First based on loads in First.

The differential model exists so that restricting Economy inventory also impacts the First price, but it doesn't stop them from directly capacity controlling P and Z fares.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 6:26 pm
  #103  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
This is consistent with the differential price model. Nowhere does it guarantee that First is exactly more than Economy by the differential; just that it will be at least that much more. In the cases you cite, UA is using the primary inventory (F/A/Z/P) to drive up the price of a ticket in First based on loads in First.

The differential model exists so that restricting Economy inventory also impacts the First price, but it doesn't stop them from directly capacity controlling P and Z fares.
Sure, that makes sense. My point, however, was that I've been getting the feeling that they're controlling the P and Z fares more. As was noted above, this isn't restricted to just the aircraft with lie-flats. For 11/10, it was appearing also on 737s. Obviously that's not inconsistent with your original discussion of the pricing, but for those of us who pay the differential, it would matter if it were true. I've seen other posts in the past where people commented on the low cost of buying up to first, but perhaps United is starting to swing back in the other direction. That's why I was curious whether anybody else was noticing something similar with a change in the average price differences between economy and first, or if I'm just imagining things.
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Old Sep 17, 2017, 7:04 pm
  #104  
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Originally Posted by chance_the_napper
I've seen other posts in the past where people commented on the low cost of buying up to first, but perhaps United is starting to swing back in the other direction. That's why I was curious whether anybody else was noticing something similar with a change in the average price differences between economy and first, or if I'm just imagining things.
I'm seeing even lower first class fares, based on cuts in the underlying economy fare pricing.

There's now a $188 first class (P) fare SFO-LAX, which I expect will drop even further, since DL is currently offering a $138 fare on the same route.

This creates a real conundrum for those of who are supposed to buy flexible fares. I can now buy a U on SFO-SAN, then change it to a P a day or two prior to departure and get a refund of $21.
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Old Dec 3, 2017, 3:11 pm
  #105  
 
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Thank you and fascinating!

Thanks for this fascinating and very well-written analysis, @Findark!
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