What is the "science" of selling check-in upgrades?
#1
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Join Date: Mar 2004
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What is the "science" of selling check-in upgrades?
I'm in the middle of a short trip to CMH via ORD from SNA. I tried to get a miles upgrade, but it didn't go through. I've been watching the cost of a paid upgrade and, as recently as yesterday, it was $700 and available only for the ORD/SNA leg (that was the leg I really wanted to upgrade). I just checked in on-line and was offered the ORD/SNA leg for $195. Needless to say, I snapped it up and I'm happy I'll be spending 4-1/2 hours in F instead of an E+ seat. I just can't figure out how these paid upgrades work. What happened between yesterday and today to drop the upgrade cost for his leg by $500?
#2
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 5,596
I'm in the middle of a short trip to CMH via ORD from SNA. I tried to get a miles upgrade, but it didn't go through. I've been watching the cost of a paid upgrade and, as recently as yesterday, it was $700 and available only for the ORD/SNA leg (that was the leg I really wanted to upgrade). I just checked in on-line and was offered the ORD/SNA leg for $195. Needless to say, I snapped it up and I'm happy I'll be spending 4-1/2 hours in F instead of an E+ seat. I just can't figure out how these paid upgrades work. What happened between yesterday and today to drop the upgrade cost for his leg by $500?
#3
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Seattle, WA
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I'm in the middle of a short trip to CMH via ORD from SNA. I tried to get a miles upgrade, but it didn't go through. I've been watching the cost of a paid upgrade and, as recently as yesterday, it was $700 and available only for the ORD/SNA leg (that was the leg I really wanted to upgrade). I just checked in on-line and was offered the ORD/SNA leg for $195. Needless to say, I snapped it up and I'm happy I'll be spending 4-1/2 hours in F instead of an E+ seat. I just can't figure out how these paid upgrades work. What happened between yesterday and today to drop the upgrade cost for his leg by $500?
#4
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Buyups seem to be very YMMV, but I think OLCI upgrades usually book into R (or another non-revenue bucket - but not necessarily requiring R space) and so they are priced by a different algorithm which is not based on the fare difference. Buying up from the reservations page is *sort of* like a re-fare, which will be very expensive close-in since cheap fares usually have advance purchase requirements.
What fare class did your buyup rebook you into? I would expect an OLCI buyup is not eligible for the PQM bonus, and the cost does not count toward PQD/RDM (whereas you get PQM/PQD for upfaring, usualy).
What fare class did your buyup rebook you into? I would expect an OLCI buyup is not eligible for the PQM bonus, and the cost does not count toward PQD/RDM (whereas you get PQM/PQD for upfaring, usualy).
#5
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Black box.
The $195 was either just an upgrade fee that UA set in some mysterious way, or the price of a buy-up to what's called an UPDI fare - that's an economy fare that books into first class. You can tell which by looking at your receipt. It will reference either an "upgrade" or an actual change in airfare.
The $195 was either just an upgrade fee that UA set in some mysterious way, or the price of a buy-up to what's called an UPDI fare - that's an economy fare that books into first class. You can tell which by looking at your receipt. It will reference either an "upgrade" or an actual change in airfare.
#6
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Thanks for the information. The receipt shows "Flight Upgrade Fee."
I usually use a business travel agent who knows my idiosyncracies and preferences. My current firm has one of the paralegals do it (a situation with which I am NOT happy). She knows enough to avoid Express flights (I don't like 'em ), to not book middle seats, etc. She doesn't know which seats don't recline, which window seats don't have actual windows, etc. My TA always looks for Y-up, Q-up and A fares. Our paralegal doesn't understand these at all.
I usually use a business travel agent who knows my idiosyncracies and preferences. My current firm has one of the paralegals do it (a situation with which I am NOT happy). She knows enough to avoid Express flights (I don't like 'em ), to not book middle seats, etc. She doesn't know which seats don't recline, which window seats don't have actual windows, etc. My TA always looks for Y-up, Q-up and A fares. Our paralegal doesn't understand these at all.
#7
Join Date: Sep 2013
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The price drop idea makes me think that one day UA is going to have PAX bid for seats from the mobile app.
It's going to be like an auction and closes at boarding.
It's going to be like an auction and closes at boarding.
#8
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: SF Bay Area, CA
Posts: 337
I have been following the price for an upgrade between SFO and SAN. It was $109 up until a couple of days before departure. Then the price started creeping up to around $250. Then at OLCI and T-24 it showed $79. A few hours later it went back up to $109 and stayed there until all of the seats were gone.
#9
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Tourists or infrequent business travelers will jump at buying an upgrade for a couple hundred dollars. Frequent business travelers will not - unless they have a lot of money to throw away. Once United takes away upgrades they become a lousy version of Southwest.
#10
Join Date: Sep 2013
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I have been following the price for an upgrade between SFO and SAN. It was $109 up until a couple of days before departure. Then the price started creeping up to around $250. Then at OLCI and T-24 it showed $79. A few hours later it went back up to $109 and stayed there until all of the seats were gone.
One thing I suspect but I'm not able to proof it because I don't know the facts but I feel UA is lying about the # of seats left. Like it would show booked 11/12. PAX A buys the upgrade and suddenly I check again an hour later and it shows they have another seat avail. So UA would say there's only 1 seat left and sell it at an higher price. Than try the same thing again?
Is UA that advanced?
#11
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: SF Bay Area, CA
Posts: 337
I seen this happen recently.
One thing I suspect but I'm not able to proof it because I don't know the facts but I feel UA is lying about the # of seats left. Like it would show booked 11/12. PAX A buys the upgrade and suddenly I check again an hour later and it shows they have another seat avail. So UA would say there's only 1 seat left and sell it at an higher price. Than try the same thing again?
Is UA that advanced?
One thing I suspect but I'm not able to proof it because I don't know the facts but I feel UA is lying about the # of seats left. Like it would show booked 11/12. PAX A buys the upgrade and suddenly I check again an hour later and it shows they have another seat avail. So UA would say there's only 1 seat left and sell it at an higher price. Than try the same thing again?
Is UA that advanced?
#12
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: San Antonio, TX
Programs: 1K
Posts: 784
This is actually what Vietnam Airlines does (at least for the flights I've taken). You bid on an upgrade and they let you know the day of if you cleared. They use some 3rd party site that I've never heard of.
#13
Join Date: Sep 2013
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I meant to say bidding like an auction.
Many asian carriers do this like CA, you email this department that will accept or reject your single offer. Not auction style though.
#14
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There are multiple airlines that use a bidding system. SK, CM, AV . . . . CX even experimented with it for a while.
#15
Join Date: Aug 2006
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NZ gives elites a bonus based on status ranging from 10% to 50%. So, if you are a top-tier elite and bid $100 ANZ chips in another $50 so your actual bid is $150. If you take a look at their description of the process it does not seem to be purely based on your bid price and it seems a little black boxish.
I've done it a few times and when you're putting the bid in the system gives you an indication of how likely it is to be successful (I usually bid in the yellow range) and then you get confirmed a day or so out.
I would actually really like for US airlines to do something like this as it give the passenger more control and lets one value the upgrade based on your individual circumstances along with putting the upgrade sales and elite upgrades on the same playing field. My guess is that there is an IP issue with Plusgrade and the US legacy airlines don't want to pay whatever Plusgrade is asking.
I think all (or at least most) of us know the days of free upgrades are limited. It will come down to which of the big three kills them off first and what the do to replace them. My guess is that it will start with DL and be some sort of auction system which will be quickly copied by UA and AA.