Kacee

You can't make any kind of reasoned statement here about the potential demise of GF without having your comments misconstrued and attacked as uninformed.

Your comments made perfect sense to me.

freshairborne

Lots of factors to consider but the training for pilots and mechanics is mostly there. If a pilot is rated on a 318/19/20/30/40, it's a much shorter training event to get rated on a 380.

There's even a pilot pay scale for these things in our current contract, but I'd bet a days' pay at that rate that the company would try and renegotiate it in our next contract.

This rumor is coming out as the pilots and the management are preparing opening offers. It would not surprise me if some element of this is a bargaining point.

And it sure would make Boeing jealous, with those 747-8s that so far they haven't really impressed anyone with.

FAB

mduell

Nope, 225 unfilled orders isn't going to cover 5 years of production at 8.3/mo (100/yr). Boeing needs to sell ~50 77W/yr through 2020 to cover the gap without drawing down production. Even if they pull down to 70-80/yr, they still need to sell dozens a year.

andrewwm

The difference is that Boeing doesn't need to sell below cost. Why would they? Even if the 747-8 line gets shut down, it's all a sunk cost at this point. 747-8 is basically just winding down +- a few top-up orders.

Airbus, on the other hand, has a couple of A380s right now that none of the existing customers want. They are desperate to move and have to sell at firesale prices.

Even the pilots are hearing news that bids are coming down for the A380. When the pilots hear something, you know that it is getting serious.

Every airline stock is down. The street won't care about a 0.5% in total increase United capacity. Airline stocks are down due to a perceived slowing of the economy and increased competitive pressures driven by modest increases in capacity. That's a sector-wide development. +- a few planes here and there don't make a whit of difference.

Always Flyin

I haven't looked at the 77W production rate. Didn't realize it was that high.

Thanks.

Madone59

Very true. The 748i really only ever existed because the USAF needed to replace their two aging VC-25As and the 744 was old technology. Boeing was never desperate.

kevanyalowitz

Gotcha ^

N830MH

Thanks for your helps, Goalie and I appreciate that.

Folks, please stay on the topics and do not ask about member comments. It's against the rules.

Let discussed about A380 order.


Here is the link:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3228...perjumbo-order

rmadisonwi

No, it doesn't.

What "news" are the pilots hearing? Where are they hearing it from.

It would either be an official company announcement, which would mirror a public announcement (because absolutely nothing announced internally would be expected to remain out of the public for more than a couple minutes these days), or a rumor. And there are as many rumors out there as there are possible outcomes of the universe.

keitherson

If there's any US carrier with the O/D hub strength to support an A380, it's United. No other US carrier comes even close.

luckypierre

I transited through KL last week and it looked like a couple were already being prepped to exit the fleet-recent exterior cleaning, parked adjacent to one another in an area that I didn't associate with active airport operations.

JetAway

I've flown other carriers' A380s in premium cabins and with each it was a special experience for me. I imagine any UA 380 "experience" would be the same as it is in any other UA aircraft, only more of it. Nevertheless, even (temporarily) acquiring a couple of A380s would be quite a PR and marketing coup for UA vs. other domestic carriers. Any idea when this is suppose to happen...if it ever does?

Singapore_Schwing

After being spoiled by the SQ a380, it would be...interesting to try out a UA product. To be fair, this could be an opportunity to rise above the name calling with the ME3, and try to prove they have something worthy of premiere global travel. I would love to see what they would do, combining the upcoming business product with its U.S. to Asia and Europe network.

I criticize UA a lot, but I love the plane (and secretly still the airline) and want to see what they could do.

Or it could be a double decker bus in the sky.

EWR764

The pilot rumor mill is notoriously unreliable, no question about it, but even a blind dog finds a bone once in a while... For instance, the Chinese A319 rumor had been making the rounds for months before it was announced in April and chatter of a 77W order was heard before official word came down.

jbcarioca

That may not be completely true. The A380 has been operationally successful only to/from congested hubs, with heavy loads, excluding the special case of EK. All the US carriers have chosen frequency over capacity, and have chosen smaller non-stops strategically, witness the B787/A350 backlogs.

If there is any chance that a US carrier might acquire A380 I'd bet DL before UA because DL might just choose a handful ex-MH or other near-new fire sale aircraft. That is not to suggest Airbus could not make a convincing deal if they really feel desperate. UA or even AA could operate them successfully in several congested markets were the ground capabilities to exist where they courtly operate two or more daily smaller wide bodies at similar times, say MIA-GRU or even a Pacific or Atlantic route or two. The world of codeshares can make those work.

I absolutely do not suggest this will happen, only that it might if the deals get good enough. Still, Airbus is doing quite OK now, so the sunk cost of the A380 is a past event. They'll only keep pushing if they're sure they'll be cash flow positive and help amortise the sunk costs. Psychology is a factor but Airbus is no longer prepared to pay much for psychology.