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Why I'm Clearly Not Cut Out For Revenue Mgmt

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Old Sep 22, 2014, 10:41 pm
  #1  
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Why I'm Clearly Not Cut Out For Revenue Mgmt
Wife and I are flying p.s. a week from today. 2 GPUs pending since we booked a couple months ago (this is the return leg of our trip; outbound already cleared off the waitlist). The flight is showing 0 seats available for sale in Y and 7 in J, yet they still won't clear us. Do they really expect to sell all 7 J seats (4 are available in Z, but still) over the next week? To me, it would make more sense to bump up the pending upgrades to free up at least some full-fare Y space, but as I said... that's probably why I'm clearly not cut out for rev mgmt.

Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 10:51 pm
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
They have all the historical data, and they've been in the business a lot longer than any of us.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 10:55 pm
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Is there any eligible Z fare to book at this point?

7 for PS BF over a week doesn't seem that unreasonable.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 10:56 pm
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Wife and I are flying p.s. a week from today. 2 GPUs pending since we booked a couple months ago (this is the return leg of our trip; outbound already cleared off the waitlist). The flight is showing 0 seats available for sale in Y and 7 in J, yet they still won't clear us. Do they really expect to sell all 7 J seats (4 are available in Z, but still) over the next week? To me, it would make more sense to bump up the pending upgrades to free up at least some full-fare Y space, but as I said... that's probably why I'm clearly not cut out for rev mgmt.

Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
Wait till about 96 hours out and see if they clear between 96 and 72 hours.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:04 pm
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It's probably because if someone is buying a full Y fare, their willingness to pay is high enough to straight out buy the J fare. If that is the case, United doesn't want to risk losing the revenue who would spiral down to lower fare buckets if available.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:09 pm
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Selling 7 F seats in 7 days is completely doable. I don't think many flights with 7 available F seats 7 days before departure have R space open, let alone a PS flight. It's even less likely considering your flight is Y0, meaning Y might have been oversold.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:13 pm
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Originally Posted by mahasamatman
They have all the historical data, and they've been in the business a lot longer than any of us.
No question - I was sincerely admitting ignorance of what goes on behind the scenes here, not intended to be snarky or sarcastic (in case it came across that way).

Originally Posted by mduell
Is there any eligible Z fare to book at this point?

7 for PS BF over a week doesn't seem that unreasonable.
Yup, 4 seats available in the Z bucket right now. It wasn't the 7 in of itself that seemed odd to me, but rather that it was in combination with 0 available in Y (meaning they could be turning away potential Y purchases). But as noted above, I have no doubt that they know better than I do here.

Originally Posted by FlyerTom111
Wait till about 96 hours out and see if they clear between 96 and 72 hours.
Thanks for the tip, hope it works out!

Originally Posted by TakeTheATrain
It's probably because if someone is buying a full Y fare, their willingness to pay is high enough to straight out buy the J fare. If that is the case, United doesn't want to risk losing the revenue who would spiral down to lower fare buckets if available.
Good point.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:21 pm
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Wife and I are flying p.s. a week from today. 2 GPUs pending since we booked a couple months ago (this is the return leg of our trip; outbound already cleared off the waitlist). The flight is showing 0 seats available for sale in Y and 7 in J, yet they still won't clear us. Do they really expect to sell all 7 J seats (4 are available in Z, but still) over the next week? To me, it would make more sense to bump up the pending upgrades to free up at least some full-fare Y space, but as I said... that's probably why I'm clearly not cut out for rev mgmt.

Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
I'm mildly surprised they aren't blocking a couple seats in J and overselling Y/B.

Originally Posted by TakeTheATrain
It's probably because if someone is buying a full Y fare, their willingness to pay is high enough to straight out buy the J fare. If that is the case, United doesn't want to risk losing the revenue who would spiral down to lower fare buckets if available.
Many corporate travelers are not permitted to buy J.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:27 pm
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don't forget that they are also selling upgrades upon check in. a friend just got a $150 buy upgrade at check in.
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:28 pm
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Yup, 4 seats available in the Z bucket right now.
That's completely orthogonal to my question about eligible fares. Are there any eligible Z fares to book for your dates?
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:29 pm
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Wife and I are flying p.s. a week from today. 2 GPUs pending since we booked a couple months ago (this is the return leg of our trip; outbound already cleared off the waitlist). The flight is showing 0 seats available for sale in Y and 7 in J, yet they still won't clear us. Do they really expect to sell all 7 J seats (4 are available in Z, but still) over the next week? To me, it would make more sense to bump up the pending upgrades to free up at least some full-fare Y space, but as I said... that's probably why I'm clearly not cut out for rev mgmt.

Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
How likely it is UA can sell those J seats could be an endless debate on FT, that only a soothsayer (I think RNE might be one...) or a tarot card reader could answer... But I don't think this likelihood debate matters.

Why give for free what they might sell?
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Old Sep 22, 2014, 11:33 pm
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Originally Posted by mduell
That's completely orthogonal to my question about eligible fares. Are there any eligible Z fares to book for your dates?
Yes - if I go to book a ticket in Y right now, it offers up a Z fare instead, and mentions "4 available at this price".
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Old Sep 23, 2014, 12:15 am
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Originally Posted by Kacee
I'm mildly surprised they aren't blocking a couple seats in J and overselling Y/B.
Y is likely already oversold.

If they can sell more seats up the front, they'll bump someone else up the back to make up for it.
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Old Sep 23, 2014, 12:19 am
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Originally Posted by docbert
Y is likely already oversold.

If they can sell more seats up the front, they'll bump someone else up the back to make up for it.
I don't disagree with that.

But J7 Z4 Y0 does not strike me as revenue maximizing inventory management given that many corporate travelers are not permitted to purchase J.
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Old Sep 23, 2014, 3:31 am
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Originally Posted by milesmuncher
Wife and I are flying p.s. a week from today. 2 GPUs pending since we booked a couple months ago (this is the return leg of our trip; outbound already cleared off the waitlist). The flight is showing 0 seats available for sale in Y and 7 in J, yet they still won't clear us. Do they really expect to sell all 7 J seats (4 are available in Z, but still) over the next week? To me, it would make more sense to bump up the pending upgrades to free up at least some full-fare Y space, but as I said... that's probably why I'm clearly not cut out for rev mgmt.

Any other plausible explanation besides they really expect to sell all 7 seats in J?
I think it is entirely possible they are waiting to accommodate as many business class passengers as possible before applying upgrades.. Remember that depending on your flight there could be a lot of international connections and they can get booked up to the last days before the flight.
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