For those who are smarter with numbers than I am...

For airline partners...
ASSUMING:

1 - partner earning rates do not change
2 - one does not care about UA status - don't fly often or already made lifetime status

For example, SFO-HKG, it is about 7000 miles each way, 14,000 R/T.

For 1K, it means the breakeven is 14,000/11 = $1272 which is probably between an S and W fare in low season?

For regular member, it means the breakeven is 14,000/5 = $2800 which is probably a Q fare? (Don't know, never paid that much)

THEN

If I can get a ticket on a competitor AC or Asian carriers for less than the breakeven price and earn 100% miles, then why do UA?

For other partners - do we foresee the ratios of miles earned change? I especially wonder about Marriott vacation package....

Would UA raise the price of the miles to partners?

For compensation, how would our math change on what to select? How would UA's math change on what to offer?

yes

Many partners are already 50% earning on sub-W fares. And some are 75% for mid-fares.

1. Your math is wrong. The break-even for SFO-HKG under new system is more like $2500. You've failed to account for the 1K bonus. That flight currently earns a 1K approx 28,000 RDM. Under the new system, the $1440 V I just flew would only earn around 14,000 RDM.

2. It is not safe to assume partner earning charts will remain the same, nor that there will be COS and/or Premier bonuses associated with partner flights. I view any calculation based on current knowledge as pointless speculation.

Just think if UA goes to multipliers for awards just like WN did to match multipliers on earning

70 points per dollar x. $8,000 C RT fare = MP game over

Fly with bucket fares on ua and buy tix from ac,ana lh sites. If a 1k should give you 100% elite bonus post 2015 mar.

If I'm understanding correctly, you are suggesting buying tickets for UA-metal flights from other *A carriers. However, according to the FAQ, any UA-operated flights, no matter the ticket stock, will still earn mileage based on fare paid. So this won't change anything.

And anyone who thinks that the current partner earning charts, with elite bonus, will remain as they currently are, is just not getting it.

Then purchase lh ana ac flights as those should net elite bonus .

I wonder how the whole earning rate and bonus works. It seems the partners decide how much is earned and pays UA for the miles (or some kind of settlement as things go both ways)?

Would UA jack up the rate they sell partners MP miles? Otherwise there would be more incentive for UA members to fly partner and credit to MP, right? Of course, those flyers are not what UA wants...

Could the entire Star Alliance be working on some kind of revenue data exchange and all go this way?

Definitely. I flew WN a lot less since RR 2.0. Not only it is not as fun a game, it is also pretty complicated.