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Is Ch11 unavoidable for UA next year?

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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:25 pm
  #61  
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Originally Posted by sbm12
If you start with assumptions like this - despite claims of being objective - it is quite easy to draw ridiculous conclusions. The company is nowhere close to being at an all-time low.
*cough*SummerFromHell*cough*
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:26 pm
  #62  
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Originally Posted by sbm12
If you start with assumptions like this - despite claims of being objective - it is quite easy to draw ridiculous conclusions. The company is nowhere close to being at an all-time low.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/La...-you-surprised

"United Airlines was the worst U.S. airline —and Virgin America was the best — among leading U.S. airlines last year, a report said Monday. Overall, carriers had their second-best score in the more than the two decades since researchers began measuring quality of service."

http://www.dailyfinance.com/on/unite...-toilet-paper/

"In a week that saw United Airlines (UAL) place dead last in a customer service ranking of the major airlines, a picture surfaced that gives some idea of how the airline earned that dubious distinction. A member of travel forum FlyerTalk posted this picture, which he says he snapped in the lavatory of a United Airlines flight."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3038556.html

"United Airlines, whose consumer complaint rate nearly doubled last year, had the worst performance. United has merged with Continental Airlines, but has had rough spots in integrating the operations of the two carriers."

Thus, I maintain my position that UA is an all-time low. Explain to me how the company isn't when being last means that all your competitors are above you and there is no way to get ranked lower.

Last edited by fly747first; Dec 14, 2013 at 10:32 pm
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:30 pm
  #63  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
Thus, I maintain my position that UA is an all-time low.
Got it...you're taking some data and interpreting it badly in an effort to prove your point. That's fine, but it isn't reality.

Even if we accept that UA today is the absolute worst operation in the USA that doesn't mean that it is worse today than it has ever been, either operationally, financially or in any other way.
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:34 pm
  #64  
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Originally Posted by sbm12
Got it...you're taking some data and interpreting it badly in an effort to prove your point. That's fine, but it isn't reality.

Even if we accept that UA today is the absolute worst operation in the USA that doesn't mean that it is worse today than it has ever been, either operationally, financially or in any other way.
UA's financial performance alone places it behind its competitors and in terms of service and operational performance it has been ranked "dead last," that's pretty self-explanatory I would think.
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:52 pm
  #65  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
UA's financial performance alone places it behind its competitors and in terms of service and operational performance it has been ranked "dead last," that's pretty self-explanatory I would think.
even if this, it does not mean UA needs or would even qualify for Chapter 11 at this time or the near future. The recent (past qtr, past year) financial performance is far better (note I did not say "great") than other periods of UA's history. The entire premise of this thread is misplaced.
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 10:59 pm
  #66  
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
even if this, it does not mean UA needs or would even qualify for Chapter 11 at this time or the near future. The recent (past qtr, past year) financial performance is far better (note I did not say "great") than other periods of UA's history. The entire premise of this thread is misplaced.
From lack of innovation to poor customer service, there are a variety of factors that when combined can have very serious consequences... similar to when we say "disasters don't just happen, they are triggered by a chain of critical events."

You may want to read this:
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/19/...d-to-innovate/
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 11:19 pm
  #67  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
From lack of innovation to poor customer service, there are a variety of factors that when combined can have very serious consequences... similar to when we say "disasters don't just happen, they are triggered by a chain of critical events."

You may want to read this:
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/19/...d-to-innovate/
Understand you and many are not pleased (including myself) with UA's direction, but such long term speculation is more a work of fiction -- and overstating things just undermines the seriousiness of the decision.

BTW , I don't need to read about Apple's turnaround, I have been in/around "The Valley" since before it was called that or "Silicon Valley." These are not new concepts to long term high tech folks.
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 11:30 pm
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It seems United needs Glen Tilton again to save it! The new PMcO regime seems to be making things awful for the customers and it will be sad to see them take United into bankruptcy because of the policies they instituted since the merger. It is sad that arrogance from new management may lead United to bankruptcy when it had really turned a corner before the merger under Tilton. Hope to see the United name fly into the late 20 teens under new leadership!
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Old Dec 14, 2013, 11:40 pm
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Understand you and many are not pleased (including myself) with UA's direction, but such long term speculation is more a work of fiction -- and overstating things just undermines the seriousiness of the decision.

BTW , I don't need to read about Apple's turnaround, I have been in/around "The Valley" since before it was called that or "Silicon Valley." These are not new concepts to long term high tech folks.
Sound insight from the 'Dean of FlyerTalk'. (maybe just the UA forum)


And, 747: As you continue to argue with everyone who is offering reasoned feedback on why UA will not enter BK in 2014, you are beginning to appear more like a troll than in your original 'objective' post...
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 12:38 am
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Originally Posted by BearX220
The way I understand bankruptcy, doesn't a company have to be in some kind of financial trouble to be in it?
Yes, I think some people are having trouble understanding that bankruptcy has something to do with a corporation's finances, not its popularity.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 12:42 am
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Originally Posted by fly747first
UA's financial performance alone places it behind its competitors and in terms of service and operational performance it has been ranked "dead last," that's pretty self-explanatory I would think.
They don't go into bankruptcy when their financial performance is worse than their competitors. They go into bankruptcy when their financial performance is so bad that they are unable to pay their bills. Is that the case?
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 1:22 am
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I think that it would be several years before bankruptcy is an issue. Although I will have to shift much of my travel to the new American because UA without US Air does not offer service that I need, American & Delta will not have the capacity to absorb a very large defection from United. I think that it would be a very slow death for United. As we start to flee I think they will get the message and change.

For the 2nd half of 2013 my US Air travel has exceeded United travel and it will go up with the merger. United may be heading to "weak sister" status like Gulf Oil.

It feels like Frank Lorenzo is with us again.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 1:34 am
  #73  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
Thus, my focus of discussion is the following: even if Smisek is replaced, will UA ever be able to recover?
The answer is yes, but it will take time.

Would anyone 10 years ago have thought that DL would be in such a dominant position? People were complaining about DL and their plastic cups in F.

But they've improved service -- customer service, in-flight experience, amenities, etc. tremendously, and they're reaping the rewards as a result.

Could anyone 5 years ago have thought that US with their limited network and connection focused hubs (PHX, CLT), outperform behemoth UA from a RASM perspective, despite UA's much broader global network and more business-oriented hubs (WAS, ORD, SFO, LAX)?

The industry is quite cyclical.


Originally Posted by sing-along
This new $2B effort. I can't help to think that it was introduced to muddy the waters and re-set financial objectives / detract from the executive's poor performance in the past.
This executive team does not understand how to increase the revenue, so the only choice they have is to adjust costs.


Originally Posted by sing-along
Last week I had an trip in which SHARES made a sked change that did not meet the minimum connection time. I did not notice until I was making my way back from Germany. The night before I called UA and the agent in SLC would not help by protecting me on a non-stop on another carrier (no space left on UA future flights). Prior to the merger, UA would put me on any carrier from any alliance to get me home The ironic thing is since I originated in FRA the Air Passenger Rights come into play however the agent did not know nor care and to me that is a reflection of the culture of the "new" UA, where the executives don't care about the passengers, which in turn filters down to the front-line staff.
They don't just have weak systems, they have weak business processes. In your situation in the old UA, it would have given you the same bad connection, but a second sweep checking for that would have moved you to another flight and/or put you in a call queue to be addressed.

I had one several months ago where UA simply cancelled the flight in a market. I ended up not needing it, and decided to wait and see what UA would do. The answer was absolutely nothing. I waited until 2 days before the flight to actually change the ticket.

That's part a technology issue, and part business process. Someone needs to be contacting customers in these egregious schedule change situations.



Originally Posted by fly747first
People get upset at me for being so harsh towards UA's RM poor hiring practices but seriously, when your airline already has the worst products among major U.S. carriers, the least it can do is to hire skilled professionals who know how to forecast.
That was not a hiring issue, rather a cultural one. The CO "we know best" attitude is responsible for a lot of what's wrong with UA. When you have someone who doesn't know what they're doing, but thinks they know what they're doing, that can be very damaging. Unfortunately, the CO culture bred a lot of that mentality, and a lot of that seems to be driving the organization at the moment at various levels.


Originally Posted by TonyBurr
Like many I hope 2014 is the year to be rid of Jeff.

However, the questions seems to be, will UA be able to win back the herds of Elites who have left (after 18 yrs as 1K, I am now AA Platinum).

Once you have lost the Elites and corporate contracts it is very difficult, takes a very long time and tons of effort to win them back. I think because of the radical change in UA a very important business principle has been destroyed - Trust. Corporations and individuals look for a trust in a relationship and once that is gone, it takes a lot to rebuild that. Even with Jeff gone I do not think the herds (including myself) will be rushing back to UA. Once you get comfortable and use to something else ( like AA) you really are not looking to go back. That relationship is something of the past.

...

Elites will not rush back to UA. Trust is broken and the Board of Directors of UA have no one to blame but themselves.
But what if UA made substantive improvements to the product, mileage program, customer service, etc., fired the CEO, rebranded, and marketed to the hilt to regain former high-value flyers?

That's basically what a new CEO who gets it is going to have to do.

At the end of the day, people change their decisions all the time. People aren't running back to UA in droves in their present state of poor CS, hot pockets in F, devalued mileage program, etc., because Jeff says they're "flyer friendly."

They'll come back when the place actually looks, feels, and smells a bit different.


Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
*cough*SummerFromHell*cough*
Yup, and that pretty much sums it up. While there still are some hard feeling from that, UA was ultimately able to recover from it.

And they can recover from this too, if they do the right things.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:03 am
  #74  
 
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Originally Posted by eman13
Thus, I maintain my position that UA is an all-time low. Explain to me how the company isn't when being last means that all your competitors are above you and there is no way to get ranked lower.
I think there's disagreement about the meaning of the term "all time low".

I know when I hear it I think about financial results - particularly when you're following up with discussion of Chapter 11. UAs financial results are far from being at an all-time low relative to how badly their financial results have been in the past.

As far as their customer service ratings, I'd like to see their customer service ratings over time before I decide whether they've been worse at customer service. I suspect their customer service ratings from March 2011 were worse than last month.

To answer the question from the original topic: I think that Chapter 11 is unlikely for UA in 2014, barring some exogenous variable that impacts the entire airline industry.

I do think that UA has a lot of areas for financial improvement. Some of these are customer friendly, some are not.
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Old Dec 15, 2013, 2:11 am
  #75  
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Originally Posted by cerealmarketer
There is nothing objective about an inflammatory headline that is baseless and terribly uninformed (Chapter 11 'unavoidable' 'next year').

A productive thread would be "What can UA do to win back $35mn of business"

And outline the changes.

Your assumption that it's impossible to win back business because it would be matched is immediately disproved by the market itself. If UA was so good before the merger, it would have been 'impossible' for others to replicate without being copied themselves.

I have never seen a less productive or balanced forum on FlyerTalk than this one since the merger.
Agreed
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