Making unambiguous statements without explanation makes this a less reliable source of information, not the other way around.

Your recollection that they got something right at least once before notwithstanding, if they did fact-check, it would be much better writing to at least mention doing it or having a source, even if they can't name the source. A clear-cut statement about something that nobody else knows about is one of those "citation needed" situations. Not to be overly harsh, but either way it's pretty lousy reporting, even for a blog.

For the past 2 years my strategy has been:
- Spend 25K on United card to get PQD waiver and fly 50K cheap miles on United to achieve full United gold status.
- Match United gold status to Marriott gold and SPG gold status with this RewardsPlus program and enjoy all the lounge/breakfast benefits and some upgrades. This has worked great.

Now it seems that this will not continue, since the new Marriott Gold status in August is only a 25-night status instead of 50 nights and therefore doesn't come with lounge access or suite upgrades. So I think my new strategy is going to be:
- Fly 25K miles on United and spend $3,000 PQD to make United Silver. Enjoy the Economy+ upgrade at check-in.
- Put $45K spend on Marriott credit card to get 15+15 = 30 nights Elite credit, then actually stay 20 nights a year at Marriotts to achieve Marriott Platinum (50 nights) w/ lounge/breakfast and upgrades. Work toward lifetime Platinum.

In summary, my everyday spend is moving from Chase United card to Chase Marriott Premier card now and I won't be United Gold anymore. Still deciding whether to get Chase Sapphire Reserve for restaurant and hotel (non-Marriott) spend.

I've always felt this program was tilted pretty far in UA's favor. It's so much easier to reach UA Gold (50k miles) than to reach Marriott Plat (75 nights).

In any event, UA and Marriott will reach whatever deal works for them. I'm not too worried about it.

All reports are that credit card stay credits will be capped at 15 total under the new program so you may need to rethink this strategy.

You are correct that the Chase Marriott Premier and Chase Marriott Premier Business do not stack anymore starting in 2019 (15+15=30 nights). However I was referring to putting $45K spend on a single Chase Marriott Premier card.
15 nights credit for having the Chase Marriott Premier card.
15 nights credit for spending $45K on the same Chase Marriott Premier card (You get 1 elite credit night for each $3K spent on the card, there is no limit to how many of these nights you accumulate)
20 nights actually stayed at Marriott
---
50 nights total = Marriott Platinum Elite status in new program starting August 1st.

If that feature survives after August 1 I will be pleasantly surprised.

I have to believe that Marriott and United reached an arrangement that was mutually beneficial. The Marriott execs negotiating with UA aren't stupid. Otherwise this reciprocal program would not have lasted 5 years -- either Marriott or United would have backed out by now.

The old Marriott Gold is 50 nights and the new Marriott Plat will be 50 nights under the new system. For those traveling multiple TPACs a year, 50K PQM and 6K PQD is no big deal. For a lot of US domestic business travelers, 50K miles for UA Gold is not easily obtainable, but Marriott's Plat status is just 4 nights a month.

Agreed. It's conspicuously absent from the new Premier credit card benefits.

That's...mildly satisfying for some reason...

It will not. The 15 night credit replaces it.

Well presently it's 15 nights plus 1 night per $3k. But I get the sense that Marriott has decided to cap credit card nights at 15 (likely as a consequence of reducing Plat from 75 nights to 50), so ultimately agree that this feature is not likely to survive.

Already stated by Marriott that it won't survive.
15 night max credit, no matter how many cards you have. Can only get Platinum from spending $75K on Ritz or SPG Luxury.

A question about current, match-granted Gold status turning into Platinum was answered in the affirmative:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/marr...-question.html

Not certain that it extends to RewardsPlus Gold for current year, but it seems that it would.

Now that 2018 is settled, only question remains, what will the status be for 2019.

Will UA elites get Marriott Plat (current benefits) or would UA elites get downgraded to Gold (zero benefits, ie.current SPG Gold)

I will cancel any stays in 2019 if the status is downgraded, and I suspect many will do same if we are downgraded to useless current SPG gold "benefits"

There are plenty of independent 4*/5* hotels that are much nicer than Marriotts/SPGs around the world.