Delta: It's not a race to the bottom [WWUAD? (What will UA do?)]
May 11, 2013, 11:42 pm
#62
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Posts: 5,825
In the last year the stocks have done this: UAL +36.37, LCC +56.89, DAL +59.45, LUV +75.90, and ALK +93.65.
Any broker who suggested buying UAL over other airline stocks would be justifiably fired by their client.
The stock is trailing EVERYONE for a reason, Wall Street is betting on a turn around, but a lot of folks don't expect it to occur anytime soon.
I have been flying DL, they blow UA away in service. Period, end of story. And I'm GS on UA for what that is worth...
Any broker who suggested buying UAL over other airline stocks would be justifiably fired by their client.
The stock is trailing EVERYONE for a reason, Wall Street is betting on a turn around, but a lot of folks don't expect it to occur anytime soon.
I have been flying DL, they blow UA away in service. Period, end of story. And I'm GS on UA for what that is worth...
DAL +52%
UAL +40%
LUV +38%
LCC +31%
What is most amazing about this is that the lowest performing airline stock in 2013 has returned 31%! Who would believe it...
I appreciate your comments on DL... This is really why I began this thread, even though I knew it might be a magnet for heightened criticism...
Is it a race to the bottom?
DL appears to moving ahead on the service front, making money and their stock performance is superior.
My hope, as a traveler, is that UA (and AA) recognize this and begin to follow DL's lead. (Except on SkyPesos, of course!)
I appreciate your feedback on DL. As you admit, you can no longer comment on UA without recent experience. Perhaps someday you'll give UA a try again, in which case your feedback will be invaluable.
May 11, 2013, 11:56 pm
#63
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: MCO
Programs: DL-DM/1MM, HILTON-DIA, .HYATT-DIA/GLOB , IHG-PLT,HERTZ 5*, NATIONAL ES
Posts: 8,691
As a DL DM, I have had a good chuckle reading this thread.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
May 12, 2013, 12:12 am
#64
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Posts: 5,825
As a DL DM, I have had a good chuckle reading this thread.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
If you lived in a UA (or AA for that matter) hub, it sounds like you would probably fly that airline, right?
Other things are 'nice to haves', but what is most important is an airline / network / schedule / alliance that meets your travel needs! (if, and only if, you want to dedicate your flying to a single airline!)
May 12, 2013, 5:36 am
#65
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: LGA/JFK/EWR
Programs: UA 1K1.75MM, Hyatt Globalist, abandoned Marriott LTT (RIP SPG), Hertz PC
Posts: 21,172
When the benchmark is the United Club, they are much stronger relatively speaking - yes
It's funny, because we observe all the same cons w/UA (save for the AmEx marriage, which IMO is a wash vs. Chase), but not nearly as many of the pros (crap RJs, minimal wifi, not much investment in clubs/product to date, etc.)
As a DL DM, I have had a good chuckle reading this thread.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
May 12, 2013, 7:48 am
#66
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2009
Programs: Delta skymiles DM + 1MM
Posts: 8,144
Also, in just a few weeks, DL will have the jewel of all airline clubs anywhere. Located at JFK T4 will be a skyclub with a sky terrace. The first lounge with access to a roof where people can relax and watch the planes take off and land. I'd like to see any of the other airlines at JFK try to do what DL just did.
Last edited by DL2SXM; May 12, 2013 at 7:57 am
May 12, 2013, 9:59 am
#67
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: US
Programs: AA/UA/DL
Posts: 2,774
As a DL DM, I have had a good chuckle reading this thread.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
I am not a DL defender nor hater. I fo point out the pros qnd cond...
DL Pros
Service recovery, esp. IRROPS
WIFI
More Mainline.. no turbo props
Decent network
Reinvestment in product
Overall good product
Overall good employees
Decent ug %
CONS
Sky Pesos - redemptions and policies that are getting worse.
Sky Clubs are anything but tranquil and Elite.
FCM - cut ug %
FC meals
Marriage to AMEX
I stick with DL because they have treated me well overall. Also the network works well for me from MCO.
1. Service recovery, esp. IRROPS (with elite status)
DL >= AA > UA
2. WIFI
DL > AA > UA
3. More Mainline.. no turbo props
DL >= AA > UA
4. Decent network
UA >= DL > AA
However, due to too many RJs on the great UA network, I usually choose
DL and AA for domestic trip.
For international trip. When I want to get upgraded, I choose AA.
I only choose DL and UA for international trip if their price is much lower than
AA.
5. Reinvestment in product
Hard product
DL >= UA > AA for now
Once AA get more new airplanes.....
Soft product (meals)
AA> UA>= DL
UA is cutting corners and it's hard to get a good meal unless you fly DL long haul.
6. Overall good employees
DL >= AA > UA
UA was "fly the friendly sky" and now is "there is nothing we can do"
7. Decent ug %
DL = AA >>>>>>>>> UA
It seems that the upgrade rates are better on UA recently.
I think their business is really bad now.
8. FF program
UA - harder and harder to get C/F award on UA metals and you can see the direction is to head to skypesos. However, with *A network, it is still the most
easy miles to redeem for award trip. (I do really think CO should merge with
DL and it would create the most stingy airline in the world.)
AA - For now is the best one or the most balanced one. Great elite program
and benefits. If there is no MPM and routing rules, it would be much easy to use. Don't know what will happen after it becomes USdbaAA.
DL - Great domestic upgrade rates. Besides that, there is nothing we can do about the skypesos.
9. Lounges (Domestic)
I like most DL/AA lounges have shower room. Even AA LGA lounge has shower room. I like many DL clubs especially the lounges at DTW. I love the AA lounge at SFO. I like the lobby of the UA domestic lounge at SFO.
10. Marriage to the Credit card companies
DL >= UA > AA
It's really annoying especially many non US based can't apply one even they want.
May 12, 2013, 1:28 pm
#68
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,645
Mitch, as I have pointed out before, UAL has done the worst of any major airline in stock price. When stocks on average go up 50%, and you go up 30% you are not doing well, you are doing poorly.
In the last year the stocks have done this: UAL +36.37, LCC +56.89, DAL +59.45, LUV +75.90, and ALK +93.65.
Any broker who suggested buying UAL over other airline stocks would be justifiably fired by their client.
If UA is infact turning around, then that turn around is baked into the stock price, if it is not, then the stock will lag other airlines further. Don't look at absolute stock price, look at where UAL is compared to the industry. If revenue continues to lag (and UA continues to have losses, or less profit, when other companies do better) the price spread will widen.
But re the future, UAL is barely generating any free cash, and it has very major Cap-Ex expenses coming for all of the new aircraft. Absent revenue getting substantially better, UAL will have a cash crunch come 2014 on. Jeff's time for a turn around is probably 6-9 months max.
Here is a link to the analysis recommendations on UAL. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...alystestimates
Currently 6 say buy, 10 are from hold (which really means sell) to sell. That is VERY VERY NEGATIVE. 3 months ago 9 said buy, 9 were hold or lower. A year ago nearly everyone said "buy"
Delta? 13 analysts say "buy", two say "hold" (a negative rating), only one says sell.
The stock is trailing EVERYONE for a reason, Wall Street is betting on a turn around, but a lot of folks don't expect it to occur anytime soon.
I have been flying DL, they blow UA away in service. Period, end of story. And I'm GS on UA for what that is worth...
Re MQD, it may be unpopular for me to say this, but I don't think it is unreasonable of DL, and I just don't see it being an issue for 95% of elites. The qualification level spending is such than anyone who is not ONLY flying all advanced purchase lowest fares will qualify. Since base spending only is included it works out to spending around 12 c/mi OR spending $25,000 on your DL credit card. If someone is not spending at that level, then I don't see why DL would give them all of the benefits.
In the last year the stocks have done this: UAL +36.37, LCC +56.89, DAL +59.45, LUV +75.90, and ALK +93.65.
Any broker who suggested buying UAL over other airline stocks would be justifiably fired by their client.
If UA is infact turning around, then that turn around is baked into the stock price, if it is not, then the stock will lag other airlines further. Don't look at absolute stock price, look at where UAL is compared to the industry. If revenue continues to lag (and UA continues to have losses, or less profit, when other companies do better) the price spread will widen.
But re the future, UAL is barely generating any free cash, and it has very major Cap-Ex expenses coming for all of the new aircraft. Absent revenue getting substantially better, UAL will have a cash crunch come 2014 on. Jeff's time for a turn around is probably 6-9 months max.
Here is a link to the analysis recommendations on UAL. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing...alystestimates
Currently 6 say buy, 10 are from hold (which really means sell) to sell. That is VERY VERY NEGATIVE. 3 months ago 9 said buy, 9 were hold or lower. A year ago nearly everyone said "buy"
Delta? 13 analysts say "buy", two say "hold" (a negative rating), only one says sell.
The stock is trailing EVERYONE for a reason, Wall Street is betting on a turn around, but a lot of folks don't expect it to occur anytime soon.
I have been flying DL, they blow UA away in service. Period, end of story. And I'm GS on UA for what that is worth...
Re MQD, it may be unpopular for me to say this, but I don't think it is unreasonable of DL, and I just don't see it being an issue for 95% of elites. The qualification level spending is such than anyone who is not ONLY flying all advanced purchase lowest fares will qualify. Since base spending only is included it works out to spending around 12 c/mi OR spending $25,000 on your DL credit card. If someone is not spending at that level, then I don't see why DL would give them all of the benefits.
May 12, 2013, 2:30 pm
#69
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: ICT
Programs: AA EXP, UA Plat, DL G, Marriott Gold
Posts: 1,330
When the benchmark is the United Club, they are much stronger relatively speaking - yes
It's funny, because we observe all the same cons w/UA (save for the AmEx marriage, which IMO is a wash vs. Chase), but not nearly as many of the pros (crap RJs, minimal wifi, not much investment in clubs/product to date, etc.)
It's funny, because we observe all the same cons w/UA (save for the AmEx marriage, which IMO is a wash vs. Chase), but not nearly as many of the pros (crap RJs, minimal wifi, not much investment in clubs/product to date, etc.)
Skymiles redemption is awful. Everyone knows that. There are ways to partially mitigate that, but it doesn't change the fact that it's awful (specially compared to Mileageplus redemption).
So, that aside, DL runs a good operation! I specially like their J cabin, and at least on my routes, it's always flat-bed, and direct aisle access is a huge differential for me. Climbing over someone else is the opposite of "premium".
May 12, 2013, 7:14 pm
#70
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
Posts: 6,982
Fact, fact, fact, please!
> 7. Decent ug %
> DL = AA >>>>>>>>> UA
> It seems that the upgrade rates are better on UA recently.
> I think their business is really bad now.
Does everyone have the facts on UG % for these three airlines?
Diditclear.com shows UA's ug% for different elite statuses, 64% for 1K and Platinum, 30-40% for Silver and Gold. My personal success rate is much higher. So, I do not agree with ">>>>>>" statement above.
> DL = AA >>>>>>>>> UA
> It seems that the upgrade rates are better on UA recently.
> I think their business is really bad now.
Does everyone have the facts on UG % for these three airlines?
Diditclear.com shows UA's ug% for different elite statuses, 64% for 1K and Platinum, 30-40% for Silver and Gold. My personal success rate is much higher. So, I do not agree with ">>>>>>" statement above.
May 12, 2013, 7:54 pm
#72
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Silver
Posts: 1,155
If you pay for cheap Y and want to upgrade, you know who you should fly.
May 12, 2013, 8:22 pm
#73
Join Date: Sep 2009
Programs: UA GS>1K>Nothing; DL DM 2MM; AS 75K>Nothing>MVP
Posts: 9,344
I think it depends a lot on travel needs. Ignoring routes and hubs, here is my opinion as someone who primarily flies premium international.
DL - No international F so they are out of the running for my business.
DL - International UGs to J, hard to get, very expensive. DL out of the running.
DL - SkyPesos are worthless - DL out of the running.
DL - Doesn't communicate honestly with it's customers - DL out of the running.
DL - Lousy alliance - Out of the running.
Food - Both DL and UA are mediocre (although recently I've had a couple of good meals in GF). Bad food does not really influence my choice of carrier.
Domestic Seats - Except for flat-beds, all domestic seats including F are horrible for anything over an hour. Hard to decide which is worse DL or UA, but I like the fact that DL is adding more flat-bed TCON routes. This is the only thing I like better about DL than UA.
In-flight service - I tend to fly the same routes a lot with the same FAs and get great service on UA. In general, service is OK on both airlines but not great. Does not really affect my choice of carriers.
IRROPs - What's the big deal? Flight is cancelled.... you get on the next flight if you're top-tier elite.
IFE - Already seen all the flicks at least twice. No impact on my decision.
WiFi - No big deal either way. Like to be disconnected sometimes.
GE/Pre-Check - Big thumbs up. Both DL and UA have it.
Boarding Process - Yuck on both airlines. Wish the airlines would charge $100 for all carry-on larger than a briefcase.
Different strokes for different folks. I prefer the bigger bed and am willing to occasionally step over someone in exchange for having more space. (I think this is partly a function of height/size).
DL - No international F so they are out of the running for my business.
DL - International UGs to J, hard to get, very expensive. DL out of the running.
DL - SkyPesos are worthless - DL out of the running.
DL - Doesn't communicate honestly with it's customers - DL out of the running.
DL - Lousy alliance - Out of the running.
Food - Both DL and UA are mediocre (although recently I've had a couple of good meals in GF). Bad food does not really influence my choice of carrier.
Domestic Seats - Except for flat-beds, all domestic seats including F are horrible for anything over an hour. Hard to decide which is worse DL or UA, but I like the fact that DL is adding more flat-bed TCON routes. This is the only thing I like better about DL than UA.
In-flight service - I tend to fly the same routes a lot with the same FAs and get great service on UA. In general, service is OK on both airlines but not great. Does not really affect my choice of carriers.
IRROPs - What's the big deal? Flight is cancelled.... you get on the next flight if you're top-tier elite.
IFE - Already seen all the flicks at least twice. No impact on my decision.
WiFi - No big deal either way. Like to be disconnected sometimes.
GE/Pre-Check - Big thumbs up. Both DL and UA have it.
Boarding Process - Yuck on both airlines. Wish the airlines would charge $100 for all carry-on larger than a briefcase.
Different strokes for different folks. I prefer the bigger bed and am willing to occasionally step over someone in exchange for having more space. (I think this is partly a function of height/size).
Last edited by iluv2fly; May 12, 2013 at 9:12 pm Reason: merge
May 13, 2013, 5:26 am
#74
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: NYC
Programs: AADULtArer
Posts: 5,732
I'm still flying UA international and most domestic and DL to ATL, DTW, MSP. I won't keep status on DL the year but since I bill out I fly paid first domestic which makes even a 3 hour ERJ work friendly.
Upgrades on UA have been >90%
IRROPS UA = DL
Service DL=UA
Route UA >DL
I love EWR Q-400s since they always get me out on the last one home if I miss connect.
IFE irrelevant to the educated
Boarding UA = DL, but I travel to neither check nor gate check!
Wifi on DL >> UA of course
Upgrades on UA have been >90%
IRROPS UA = DL
Service DL=UA
Route UA >DL
I love EWR Q-400s since they always get me out on the last one home if I miss connect.
IFE irrelevant to the educated
Boarding UA = DL, but I travel to neither check nor gate check!
Wifi on DL >> UA of course
May 13, 2013, 6:31 am
#75
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: ICT
Programs: AA EXP, UA Plat, DL G, Marriott Gold
Posts: 1,330
I fly mostly TATL or to LATAM, so I usually don't get to fly the Asian carriers. Between UA 2x4x2 and DL 1x2x1, I prefer DL, but usually # of connections, schedule etc dictates my choice of carrier more than anything else.