hobo13

Maximizing profits for one year does not necessarily maximize them for 20 years....

But maximizing profits for one year does insure a higher personal bonus for that year.... @:-)

edcho

Like I said before, this is good news at the moment but doesn't say too much. The general trend is not encouraging either. If they have to shrink capacity (and continue to shrink capacity) to get these PRASM numbers then we won't have an airline left at the end (or atleast one that will get me where I want to go). Once capacity remains unchanged (or increases) and PRASM improves, that will be a good sign for things to come.

HNLbasedFlyer

In the spirit of big picture - I saw this article at work around 9am Hawaii time and couldn't post it because of work - I can't be the only FT who saw it - and was surprised 12 hours later nobody posted it when I got home - had this been bad news - it would have been posted within 5 minutes of the release. It isn't just a UA thing - way to many threads in other forums always want to focus on the negative.

sinoflyer

Much of the debate since 3/12 was whether UACO would be irreparably damaged by the defections of the self-anointed "elites" and "HVFs" on this board. I agree that the March YOY increase is deceiving given such a poor performance last year, but it is not deceptive on UA's part--reported numbers are reported numbers, and everyone is free to spin them however they want. Moreover, the rebound shows that the minority among us who scoffed at all the "HVF" bluster were right (at least for now ). If these numbers hold up over time, AA's status match of 1K/GS last year just might be their best gift to Smisek.

andrewwm

Except all the other majors have cut capacity at the same rate or at an even greater rate than UA, yet saw no uptick in unit revenue.

But don't let facts get in the way of the daily two minute Smisek hate

All the majors shed about 1-1.5% capacity last year. Delta is planning on cutting another 2-3% capacity this year, who knows what AA and US will do given the merger but almost certainly "fleet redundancies" will be found, while UA is only planning on cutting capacity by about 0.5% this year.

Capacity cuts are a red herring - UA is doing it the least among the majors.

LarkSFO

Instead of 'in an alternate universe', you should start this with "If UA-NYC ran the world".

I'd like to think that if they had followed your strategy, it would have led to happier customers and greater success... But we'll never know. Perhaps Parker will read your post and take notes and execute the USAA merger according to your (and most FF'ers) wishes!

Agree with your post. UA (and DL and USAA and etc.) good financial news in this new age of flying means bad news (in general) for Frequent Fliers... (Bad news on differentiated treatment of HVF's, superior 1K / GS experience, the elite experience in general. And if 80% on time percentage is deemed 'good enough', and customers don't run for the exits, then this is what our experience will look like going forward. We'll see.)

As you say: If they can make more money without focusing on elite / customer satisfaction, then we all should be concerned!

Whoa, now you are getting crazy!


When UA-NYC runs the world, I am sure you will be on their Board of Directors!

sfozrhfco

Except that you completely missed the fact that his whole thread is about March 2013 when UA cut capacity by 5%---far more than any other US carrier. Given that March 2012 capacity was also down for UA due to the switchover to SHARES--these capacity reductions YOY are even more dramatic. Combine this with much higher costs in March 2013 and the picture is not looking pretty. Shrinking 5% with fixed costs increasing is not a plan to achieve long term profitability.

Luvs2snowbordbut1kSEA

I think most people stuck with the early stages after 3/3... it will be much more telling to see the YOY performance of Q2 and Q3. The defections started after the hours of wait time and inability to properly integrate their systems.

SilentMonarch

Here's an idea: why not look at year over year performance for February as well as March in terms of percent change and absolute numbers to provide context?

Numbers aren't terribly objective without context. Take a statistician with one foot on hot coals and one foot in a bucket of ice, and ask him how he feels. "On average, I feel fine."

If February's numbers look as good as March, or March's numbers represent a logical extension of an extrapolated trend, then good. If it's a statistical blip or anomaly, then it is either meaningless or bad.

I'm no longer a fan of UA, but classifying those of us that are trying to more objectively understand the context as "haters" is a bit harsh. Debating this single data point as positive or negative, by extension, would group us into "haters" and "apologists" with no middle ground available.

sinoflyer

I'm not sure if you meant it, but if this is true (I don't know enough to agree or dispute it), then you're saying that UACO's 3/12 PRASM was not as artificially low as they were in the following months/quarters. In turn, this means that UACO's 3/13 YOY PRASM is even more startlingly good vis-a-vis the numbers reported by the other carriers.

IAH-OIL-TRASH

What I don't understand is how some posters are bashing the numbers by saying they're wrong because "capacity is down". So what? What does PRASM mean? Revenue per available seat mile? It is a number independent of capacity now vs capacity then. It means that UA is getting more revenue per AVAILABLE seat-mile then they were. That's all. Seriously. Some posters want the denominator to stay the same, even though the capacity's been cut?

Again, the airline's problem as a business (but what was good for passengers in terms of upgrades, space, and fares) was over-capacity. Now that airlines are addressing the over-capacity issue to (gee!) make money, the flyers used to the benefits of poorly-run airlines (as a money-making endeavor) are complaining to no end. I certainly would love to have half-empty planes travelling everywhere, 100% upgrades, fares at less than what it costs to fly, etc, but airlines are supposed to make money.

FlyWorld

Yes, but, those were great days to be a 1K globe trotter. ;-)

Luvs2snowbordbut1kSEA

My point is that taking any one single month of performance (especially in this crazy environment of the merger) does not make any real statement. The facts are better represented by a trend line and (for better or worse) the real trend line starts in Q2 2013. Personally, I gave them until the Fall to right the ship. It didn't happen, so I left.

Of course full year 2014 YOY 2013 will be even more telling... this is a very large company with high revenue. Major shifts are only seen in trend lines- niot one offs. IMHO

sinoflyer

I agree. I actually find the March results somewhat unbelievable.

GRALISTAIR

At the very minimum this has to be a step in the right direction and is positive news. Mr Smisek may have bonus opportunities this year!