Flying out of SFO as a Gold I am 0-10 this year. Yes, I am on cheaper fares as that is what my company pays for. I am usually 15 or way lower on the list at the gate. What I do see is at check in a 757 will be booked 12-16 out of 24. By the time I get to the airport F is booked full. So either lots of people are buying last minute fares or, as I really believe based on the kinds of people I am seeing in F, people are scooping up the buy ups at check in.

edit to add: or a lot of SDC for people who know they won't get CPU on a different flight.

Or UA is actually upgrading some of the 1K, Plat, etc. on the list ahead of you within 24 hours of departure...

But the names on the list ahead of me don't change. It is usually the same people in the same position. Sorry forgot to put this part above in my observation. Further evidence is yes, I do move down the list as more people check in and I note the names. The number of "booked" F does not change. Then at about 4 hours prior to departure suddenly books full but the upgrade list does not change and the number of names with check marks next to them does not change either which indicates buy ups as those are not considered "upgrades" as far as the list is concerned. And they type of people I am seeing, stars in their eyes as first time in F or people say things like "only way I see F is when I buy up at check in as a lowly silver".

Ok -- but odd that all of these buy ups magically show up at 4 hours prior to departure. You'd think if they were all non-status pax (who would not show up on the upgrade list) that they wouldn't all be checking in online at home at the same time.

Also, your observations about the list would also blow your SDC comment out of the water, right? If people were SDCing for better upgrade chances, they'd still need to show up on the list with a check mark next to their name.

It's just my personal observations. As a Gold out of SFO I NEVER expect to get an upgrade. But it is fun t watch the list. And it is not always "exactly" at 4 hours. But the bulk happen the closer it gets to departure as the number of checked in people increases.

I certainly don't doubt that some of the seats are going to check-in buy ups. I find it more challenging to believe that there are consistently 10-12 of those buy ups happening from non-status passengers.

Keep in mind, quite often those on YBM fares do change flights on day of departure and get upgraded instantly due to fare basis.

That is part of the reason why we see the upgrade list remain unchanged but a new person pops up on the cleared list.

308 at 8:02. I'll be in the United Club closest to the gate if you need access--send me a PM.

I'm on an A320 tomorrow that I booked today (seeing that it was only booked 6/12 in F and the fare was good, I said, why not go to Cali this weekend and if I don't get the upgrade, I'll cancel the ticket). Upgrade cleared about 1hr after booking (26 hours before departure) and before the ticket was issued.

There was a 762 leaving 50 minutes later that I would have grabbed (booked only 16/25) but my fare class was not available. That would have been nice, but I'll take the A320...

But that's just it. I don't see anymore names on the cleared part of the list. It stays at the same number of cleared during this whole time. And "maybe" one person gets upgraded at the gate.

TODs!

im 85% this year out of Austin.

I think I have only missed 2 hops from Houston to Austin without an upgrade which i could not care less about anyway given its a 40 min flight.

Im 100% on flights longer that an hour.

Im also up to this point 2 for 2 in GPUs

but have another two on Waitlist right now for a trip to india on W and V classes with 6 and 8 seats showing available so not looking good atm there which could be my first failure of the year which would be a shame. especially on a 15 hour flight.

The net effect, though, should be balanced out--the flights they change away from should suddenly have a free space in F (or one less on the u/g list).

I've been a 2P since 2008 but this year is going to be brutal for me. I got a promotion in OCT-12 and started traveling almost every week. I was able to re-qualify for premier silver by DEC-12 (thank god) and then re-qualified through 2014 by the end of FEB-13. YTD, I've logged 48K PQM / 43.5 PQS. All domestic, all short(er) haul (SFO-PIT/ORD have been the longest segments).

I'm sure many of you 1K's remember your first qualifying year where you travel at the pace of a 1K but with crap status for most of the year. It's not a lot of fun. At this pace, I should hit premier gold next week, premier plat by end of June, and 1K by end of August.

My situation is helped out significantly by the nature of my schedule. Most trips are booked last minute (<2 days out) so I get Y fares + instant upgrades quite frequently (>50% of all my segments have been in what United calls "First Class").

When I'm on non-Y fares, it's a different story. I'm competing with the huge number of GS/1K flying out of SFO so my success rate for CPU on outbound legs is 0%. I think the last time I got a CPU out of SFO was in 2010 (5:45am flight on Saturday morning to DEN on a 777). The overall success rate is around 15% for flights not originating at SFO. I've had the best luck on return legs at odd hours from places like MCI, SAT, etc.

Weird CPU Timing
 

Just cleared CPU at a non-T-24 interval. Have insight as to how? As of this AM I was in the back. See this screenshot for more info. Thanks!

Flying out of SFO as a Gold I am 0-10 this year

Flying out of DEN as a Gold, I am 0-30 this year (and 0-48 last year, after the merger completed). Nothing like being an "overentitled elite". ;-)

In any event, there's been no improvement from my rather limited perspective.