UA-NYC

I'm with you, my post was very tongue in cheek

For all we know, a GM booking a W on that route got a $79 offer...

exerda

I had a strange experience recently. I'd accidentally made two Fare Lock reservations for the same flight (made them on separate days, and they ended up being in separate fare classes, Q and W respectively).

I went to ticket the first one (Q) and was offered a $89 upgrade to F at that point (from a ~$250 ticket). I declined, then realized I had a W Fare Lock as well and cancelled the Q flight altogether.

Thirty seconds later, when I went to ticket the W flight (~$180), I was offered a $279 upgrade to F.

I cannot understand the math.

Q = $250 + 90 = $340.
W = $180 + 280 = $460.

Difference in fare was only $70 between Q and W, but the difference in upgrade offered was $120. These two offers were within seconds of each other.

I was later offered an upgrade on the itin itself for $320.

I declined and cleared CPU.

MBS MillionMiler

When reading from one's iPhone, it's had to see those smileys sometimes. I didn't think you were in the camp that UA can do no wrong...Excuse my inability to recognize sarcasm! ^

And true on the buyup. I'm tempted to book a res for a non-status coworker and see how it prices his TOD. $79 seems about right.

BCH

1/25 ORD-ATL offered $299 to upgrade just after purchase
1/27 ATL-ORD offered $199 to upgrade just after purchase

Declined both. Doesn't seem worth for a 600-mile flight.

After purchase processed, united.com was showing the same flight upgrades as

1/25 ORD-ATL $341 ($42 more than 10 mins prior)
1/27 ATL-ORD $241 ($42 more than 10 mins prior)

1kBill

ONT-IAH-PIT

K fare outbound, Q inbound

At purchase:
Offer $589 u/g for ONT-IAH leg ONLY. No other segments offered. The pricing algorithm must be off its meds or something.

Shortly after purchase (i.e. when CO finally ticketed the flight):
Offered $539 for ONT-IAH-PIT ($50 less than just the ONT-IAH leg offered ~ 45 minutes prior.)

Offered $359 for PIT-IAH-ONT return leg.

Declined both and applied regional which cleared all but PIT-IAH leg on a CR7. Actually considered buying the upgrade on the return, but decided $359 was too much for a snack box on UX.

dcdavido

We all know that CO management believes status passengers are "over entitled". The theory goes that if I am a 1K and buy a $300 ticket from DC to TPA, and a GM (or non-member) buys the same ticket for $300, CO will have to give me premier boarding, special security screening, a special customer service phone line, free baggage check, free upgrade to E+, early boarding, and potentially a free upgrade to FC. Whereas they can charge for a lot of that from the GM. So they get (say) $300 from me and (say) $400 from the GM.

I always assumed that (or at least as how CO initially presented it), that skipping status passengers on the upgrade list was a "mistake". That some legacy UA tickets were causing the upgrades to stop working. So if the first person on the list causes the upgrade process to stop and they are a GS - the GS process fails. Then the 1k process runs and tries to process the GS as #1 on the list and fails. Then the Platinum process fails, gold process fails, and silver fails. So it's now check-in time and there is R availability. R availability should indicate that all the elites upgrade requests had been processed - so the system starts offering TODs to GMs. So I check in (as a 1k) and get put on the upgrade standby list, the GM check's in and the process sees R inventory and sells it. However, it now appear that explanation was a ruse, and the process was working as CO management intended. Sin #1: lack of transparency. Set the rules they way you want, but be straight with us on the rules.

What appears to be happening is that CO believes in getting rid of the elites (or at least elite benefits) and de-bundling everything. So a FC seat has value (value which is based on demand) and should be sold. If they give away a free upgrade to an elite - someone screwed up. They'll keep refining the pricing until they figure out how to sell every upgrade every time. Sin #2: upgrades are the most valuable part of elite status.

Right now, I've moved my loyalty over to AA. If I have to fly on UA, I'll simply buy the benefits I want. Exactly what CO management wants. An Elite that no longer regularly flies (and won't get status or benefits) and someone who pays all these fees. But we can see from falling PRASM (passenger revenue per available seat mile) seems to have blow hole in their theory. Sin #3: elite means nothing if anyone and anybody can buy it. Who cares about boarding first, if everyone boards first.*

I give my business to one company in exchange for benefits (upgrades being the primary one). So the first thing I do (when I have to travel) is go to the company's website (used to be united.com now aa.com) and I'll find a routing that works for me and has a reasonable price (airline/alliance is my primary decision driver). For the GM, they go to kayak.com or expedia.com or some other engine and buy primarily on price.

To get status (especially higher status) means you probably have to have business travel. Business travelers tend to travel closer in. You talk to a potential client and they want to buy - you want to fly out ASAP and meet and close the business with them before they change their mind. Whereas you know about your family trip to Disney World months in advance.

So a couple weeks before flight, CO management knows that they can put (say) 40 seats aside at higher prices and they will sell. US (a low cost carrier with a weak elite program) might only be able to sell 5 or 10 seats at a higher price, so it has to keep seats cheaper for longer. I recently paid over $1800 (on AA) to go DC to LHR for business. If I were doing it for fun, I'd be looking at half the price. Sin #3: the exchange is my business (including higher dollar business) in exchange for benefits. Don't give me benefits, I won't give you my business.

One has to assume that Jeff went beyond theory and actually ran the data to determine the PRASM for each status level and determined whether alienating their status members makes sense or not. But I just don't think Jeff is that smart - as falling PRASM shows.

You hear a lot of complaining on this board, and I've been one of them. I gave them a chance and are voting with my feet and dollars. Eventually, Jeff will dismantle the elite system and charge everyone for everything. Will his model work better than other airlines? Or is his hope that all airlines follow his lead? If no one values loyalty, then he's got an equal playing field. Or will Jeff just lose his high dollar travelers without generating enough fees to offset? I believe (or want to believe) the later since I value elite benefits - but we'll see.

* As an aside, UA used to be very picky about protecting international first class (on a three class plane). You could only get there buy using hundreds of thousands of miles for the very few mileage award seats (a special experience if you manage to snag it), you could pay $10k+ to buy FC, or you could pay $5k+ and upgrade from full fare (C,D fare) tickets. And UA would put employees in the rest of the seats with strict rules (dress, drinking, etc...) to ensure the integrity of FC. Last thing you want is a CEO paying $15k sitting next to Homer Simpson playing with his seat singing "seat goes up, seat goes down, seat goes up, etc...".... CO doesn't get it. They will sell double class upgrades to anyone with a couple hundred dollars burning a hole their pocket. How long before the CEO who values his privacy switches to an airline where they aren't sitting next to a kettle trying to get $69 worth of beer while bragging about his FC experience.

UA-NYC

A very strong and accurate analysis ^

I'll happily admit this "strategy" works (regardless of despising it) if and when they recapture their price premium (PRASM growth). As of now, they're failing.

weezl

Well put. One piece missing tho. What airline to switch to. AA, soon to be US? None out there work for me the way you describe.

RJNYC

Another data point: My partner (no status) and I (platinum) are on different record locators, but same fare code "W", for the same LGA-DEN-ASE on Wednesday. He is being offered a $693 buy-up to F with one seat remaining; my reservation says "no upgrade available" under the buy-up column.

I realize that this is a HODs, not TODs situation, but I still find it odd that I wouldn't be given the same offer (or any offer at all)! Perhaps .bomb knows something I don't (that my CPU will clear) and therefore isn't pitching me a TOD/HOD offer?

weezl

If your CPU clears at least it would make the concept of elite over non-elite still having some edge. But if not, this is about as good as it gets in confirming that the system absolutely prefers non-elites over elites. These clear-cut cases need to be escalated, do let us know what the outcome is. Is this something that UAI can comment on? Is she still around?

star_world

This post displays a fundamental lack of understanding of how loyalty programs work, and how they are used by airlines to their advantage.

Let's start with the really basic errors - your post is littered with "CO"s which is a red flag to any rational person who might be initially approaching your post with an open mind. That alone displays a complete lack of understanding of the management structure of the airline, how decisions are made and who makes them. There is no CO.

Then you apply the logic in the portion you quote above. Let's take three passengers, all paying a "base" fare of $300 as you describe above. Let's assume this hypothetical ticket is 1,500 miles round trip (you can make these numbers whatever you wish).

One is a GM who flies at most 16 of these round trips per year on United - otherwise they wouldn't be a GM. It's highly likely that they fly less, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for a moment. That passenger, paying the "inflated" $400 per ticket due to the additional fees will contribute $6,400 to United's top-line revenue over the course of the year.

The second passenger is a Silver member who flies just enough to obtain the benefits associated with Silver but nowhere close to Gold - let's say 37.5k miles per year. That would come from 25 of these trips, but they pay $300 per ticket so they contribute $7,500 in revenue.

The third is a 1K passenger who flies 110,000 miles in the year; at $300 per ticket that's $21,900 per year.

The calculations here are elementary for a reason - there is simply no way - not even close - that UA considers that 1K passenger or that Silver passenger to be a burden. They will do just enough to keep the Silver passenger happy - give them E+ for free at checkin if there's any seats left, let them board a bit early, but they will do a lot to get that 1K's business because it takes nearly 4 GMs to replace them. Even for the Silver passenger the marginal additional cost of providing Silver benefits is not even worth worrying about.

Now we come to upgrades, the real meat of the topic. This forum, the most critical audience for United, is still littered with posts from 1Ks posting upgrade % rates in the 80-90% range. I can speak from personal experience - I spent about $20k with UA last year and was upgraded on about 78% of my upgradeable flights, excluding YBM upgrades. This year is starting out in a similarly promising way.

I completely agree that upgrades are being sold at a higher rate than in the past, but I fundamentally disagree with the core points you're making, namely:

- United sees its elite passengers as a burden or "over entitled"
- United is trying to do away with elites and the elite program in general
- United will try to do everything in its power to avoid giving complementary upgrades to elites

Every one of these points is fundamentally wrong, from every piece of evidence I've seen, every published policy I've read and the vast majority of rational anecdotal evidence I've noted here and elsewhere.

I think what we saw in 2012 was a test of the market to see who would pay for upgrades and at what price point, not a permanent policy change. The US airline industry operates with the barest minimum of differentiation - there simply isn't the competitive opportunity for a hostile policy such as this to be adopted when there is an even marginally better option out there. Which brings up another point - anyone who thinks the grass is greener at AA or anywhere else is either not seeing the complete picture or is being very short sighted.

weezl

I took this refernce to mean the airline is not really UA anymore, it is CO. This is not ignorance.

Not sure I agree. They are gambling right now, dissing elites in hopes of more (short-term) cash. We are seeing many elites staying the course, in part because there aren't many options for many, outside of AA (which may have its own merger woes soon)

I have had 3 extremely repetitive and itinerary-reproducible years of flying UA as a 1K. Last year's CPU experience sucked. I went from 90% to 70%. This year I am 0/4 and 2 of those zeroes were about 9 and 17 on the CPU list at T-24. I have never been that low, even on heavy-elite flights.

I agree here.

Well, AA may not be better overall, but AA is not worse either. And there are some things that are indeed better at AA. In the CPU dept they seem to be better (tho this is subject to reporting bias); and the SWU restrictions at AA are better (there are none); and I always get a free meal and special recognition when with AA, where they come to me if I am in Y and see to my well-being--mostly a gesture but it makes me feel special.

For me the biggest downside to switching to AA is the merger threat. I have been (and will be) on the fence for a lot longer than I thought for switching.

greathustle

I value my elite benefits, and upgrades the most of all of them, very highly. But if UA can SELL a one-way domestic first class seat for an additional $700, on top of a mid-level W fare, you're not going to hear any complaints from me. Would be pretty surprised if that wasn't the full upfare to A.

I mean, what's the issue here? That no non-elite should sit in F if there's an elite on the plane somewhere? Even if the non-elite is willing to spend $1,000+ on a one way? Wow

UA-NYC

I don't think anyone has any issue about the $700 up-fare - it's the sub-$100 TOD that is the key issue, often a lesser offer to a GM than to an elite, while elites languish on the waitlist.

That's the pennywise, pound foolish mindset many of us criticize.

Mr.X

Simple question - How do I maximize the chance of getting an free upgrade?

Flying IAH-CUN in T-60days. I only have Premium Silver. Lots of seats available in FC.

Is my only strategy at this point to sit & hope no one pays the currently priced $690/person upgrade fee, and that no one with a higher status books a ticket?