Travel from US to London
 

My wife and I are being optimistic and booking a trip to London in November. We both plan to have our vaccinations by then. What's the general sense of whether the country will be open and what kind of restrictions we might encounter?

Look into the crystal ball and see what it says! I don’t think anyone can guess what the state of travel will be in November.

The crystal ball said yes. I was looking for additional input or a friendly discussion. Thanks for contributing. :-)

No one knows. We don't even know what will be open in March and thats two weeks away.

There are dozens of threads all over flyer talk about 'will I be able to visit X country in Y month?' (and that includes people wanting to visit the US) and the answer to each and every one is no one knows!

Not sure what 'additional input' you are after because at the moment there is no additional input to give.

It's not unfriendly to say that. But realistic.

Truly, nobody knows. Don't let anyone tell you that they do.

Not remotely worth booking anything until 30 days out. Even if things are better, schedules change constantly and you may well wind up wishing that you had booked on another carrier.

I think everyone hopes it will be better. But honestly, no-one knows whether borders will be open, a new variant emerges, or groups in the U.K. that refuse the vaccine cause a fourth wave. Far too many variables.

Book something if it gives you something to look forward to. But be prepared for it to change.

In the spirit of helpfulness, I'll give it a go:

Everybody in the UK who wants a vaccination will have had one by late summer and it's quite likely that, by then, there will be a programme ongoing of giving people differently formulated booster shots to protect against new variants. (Likelihood: 90%)
Domestically, England will be largely open (likelihood 75%) but many events and activities will be open only to those who have either been vaccinated or tested negative withing the last xx hours (likelihood 50%)
There will be strict entrance requirements to the country, with negative tests and quarantine, in some form or other, even for those who have been vaccinated, to guard against the import of variant strains (likelihood 33%).

My gut says the same thing, though with the addition that larger events and activities will likely be limited in capacity. I'd also assume just turning up to anything (museums, galleries, etc.) will not be possible - everything will need to be booked in advance for a specific time (even if free).

I also think there is a good probability that mask wearing in public spaces (transport, museums, shops) will still be in place. (As an aside, after not having a cold in year, despite still having to actually go into work, I think I might continuing wearing a mask on the tube and trains even if it isn't required anymore. I'd be interested to see if it better protects me once things get closer to "normal" (i.e. the old days))

Historically, it was generally-speaking, cheaper to book in advance. But, with the elimination of change fees and other enticements, RM/IM is much more difficult. Thus, it makes all the sense to plan a trip to the UK, but little sense to book and pay. While a refund is in order if the flight is cancelled or significantly changed, a good chance that the changes are not significant and thus, if one does not wish to travel or is unable to travel, one is stuck with what amounts to a credit or rebooking for use on the carrier of choice for a later date.

Other carriers or destinations might be more useful and circumstances may change and the prospect of having made a long-term interest-free loan to an air carrier may not be the best investment.

So maybe the best way to look at this is not to book anything which is not fully refundable (at this point).

That's all I needed. I was just wondering if anybody heard any rumors, projections, etc. from inside the country. I get that nobody really "knows". Some of the others were a little more helpful. But again, thanks for making me one of your 12,000 posts. :rolleyes:

You asked for opinions so I gave you mine. If you don't like it then fine but there is no need to be rude.

The only thing that will help you is cold, hard, accurate information - for which there is none - not 'rumors, projections etc' - for which there are many but of no practical use.

I prefer to deal with the former not the latter.

Thanks. I'm sorry, I shouldn't have been so curt in my response.

Again, I'd advise not to book and pay for travel so far out.
In my eyes the Post Covid-19 travel world will be much different that we were getting used in 2019 and earlier on.
In the future governments will quickly shut borders and restrict travel at short notice, once, an infectious disease is spreading. That may include an agreesive flu variant, MERS or a Coronavirus mutation.
So we may have survived Covid-19 by November 2021, all it takes is another virus scare (another Ebola spread in West Africa) and travel is going to be shut down again.

So solution -> book flights/travel only a short notice and if the prices are too high, change the travel destination or abandon the travel plans alltogether. I am pretty sure that the travel market will adjust to this new reality.

This pretty much sums it up.

With vaccines increasing, rates decreasing massively and overall complete "I'm done with lockdown" sentiment things are VERY fluid.

If you want a positive outlook, past SARS viruses have generally lasted 2 seasons as a pandemic and then became endemic. The wildcard is how governments will use or not use their new found powers to continue lockdowns and border closures past any medically necessary point. Book the trip.

While nobody knows, we are all pondering, planning and assessing risk/reward. Cheap fares and hotels tempt you to take a risk. Beyond only refundable hotels, the only thing I would add is that if OP does decide to book air travel, consider having a alternative target trip or 2 in mind and be sure that you book air on a carrier that a) has a high likelihood of surviving and b) you can easily use a credit. I would not book that cheap Air Maroc (as an example) flight but rather maybe choose United and have a Hawaii plan in your back pocket if things go in the crapper.

All guess work of course but...

Unless there are any more big suprises, if we have all been vaccinated, AND had boosters, AND have border restrictions, if there’s any enforced social distancing or mask requirements somethings gone wrong somewhere.

Good advice. I booked the airfare with miles. I can redeposit them for a nominal fee. The hotel is refundable up until the travel date, so no worries there. I haven't done any further planning...just watching to see what might happen.

This is my strategy for all my future flights, currently. I am fortunate in that I can take the hit of the redeposit fee, and a couple of times already, BA has cancelled so I've been able to avoid paying that (although I just pushed my trips further forward, but avoided the change fee.)

rb211.

I'm also looking at the UK as my first international trip. The UK is doing better than the US on vaccination rates, so I assume I wouldn't be entering a worse country than the US. And, among all countries with advanced vaccination programs, I would think the UK is the most likely to allow Americans in.
But, as with others, I am only making fully refundable reservations. And I'm making a domestic US plan as a backup so I don't end up in December without a holiday (again).

Apology accepted and appreciated.

I can’t see the UK giving any extra leniency towards Americans when the USA singles out UK resident citizens by banning them altogether.

As the regulations stand at the moment, the UK is a very unattractive destination: You are required to take a pre-departure PCR test, then self-isolate for 10 days with two more expensive tests during that period. If the US were to be added to the UK's red list, you would also need to spend the first 10 days in hotel quarantine - and that would not be a nice hotel of your choice.

Of course things may (and hopefully will) change over the coming months, but as of right now I'd be looking elsewhere...

I imagine this will all change as vaccines become more widespread and as we come off the winter 'high' of new cases. I think the OP said (s)he was traveling later this year and my trip isn't until late summer. Considering the US + UK economic ties, I still think the UK is the most likely to allow Americans in.

We are miles off the "high" of new cases - in fact they are down to early Autumn levels and the R number is at its lowest level since May.
Likewise the US is well off its high.

Both countries are making huge progress on vaccinations. The US is expecting to get everyone who wants one to be fully vaccinated by the end of July and we are only a couple of months behind. Meanwhile we already have all the most vulnerable people partially vaccinated and should have all of them fully vaccinated in ten weeks time. Meanwhile the US has a smaller but significant number of the most vulnerable fully vaccinated and should have all of them done sooner than us.

So the question is political rather than medical. It appear that both Biden and Johnson want to be seen to stop travel. Both seem to put more emphasis on that than opening up their economies. And, because it's not tourist season, there is currently no pressure from the general public to change anything. I would say it's no more than 50/50 that tourist travel will open up between the UK and the US by the Autumn.

To the extent the question becomes political (or economic), as the vaccinated population increases and (hopefully) cases decrease, there will be tremendous pressure on all political leaders to evaluate the purpose of any restrictions. If it is to prevent over burdening the health care system and protecting the most vulnerable, we may very well be there by summer. If it's to completely eradicate the virus, then we may be in this for a long haul. I'm hoping for the former and some common sense, less onerous restrictions as things clear up.

I thought the UK was well ahead of the US on vaccinations.

Edit: I was looking at % of population. Looks like, as of yesterday, the UK has given almost 17m their first dose (25%). The US has given 41m their first dose (13%).

I need to be in London the week including 11/11 and then on to Paris via Eurostar. Hopefully this will be possible. Honestly, some form of COVID will be with us for eternity. Just like the flu and common cold, it won’t go away. I’m trying to be optimistic.

Nobody can advise you as to whether or under what circumstances you will be permitted to enter the UK or France and it is not remotely worth speculating beyond the next 30 days. By way of example, what if the reason which gives rise to the need to be in London can't happen or you can't be there for it.

This is an issue I would revisit in October. I certainly would not put down any funds which are not 100% refundable.

It’s a little difficult to compare - the UK is basically only giving first doses (deferring the second jab) while US is giving 2nd doses as well. In total doses given, the UK is a bit ahead, although US has more fully vaccinated, and that number will grow quickly as the single-dose J&J vaccine rolls out. I think the more interesting number is the drop in cases the UK is seeing now that so many people have had at least one dose. They now have the lowest rate of any large European country. US is much worse, but improving still and doing better than some Europeans.

As others have said, no point in making plans too far ahead. However, a lot will depend on what you want to do on this trip. If you want to hit the tourist spots in London and go to the theatre doubt things will be anywhere back to normal. But if you're visiting relatives and/or planning to travel around the countryside it's more likely that you won't have any problems.

It would be interesting to know if anyone is tracking UK progress according to the “roadmap” for reopening. The “no earlier than June 20th” date for removing all internal restrictions at least has a series of defined steps to be met. Is March going as planned/hoped?
A lot of people seem to be betting on the vaccine program and the roadmap succeeding as planned. Restaurants are ordering food, West End theatres are selling tickets starting June 21, etc.
Further, there is talk of the US removing some travel restrictions by mid-May. I’m hoping Europe will get their act together regarding vaccines, but if not, one can envision a US-UK travel relaxation.

Would certainly not count on anything at the moment! Hopefully the US will begin to reopen TATL, at least from the UK, in the near future. Unfortunately the rest of Europe remains totally unpredictable at the moment.

Of course, you are absolutely right! I’m always looking for any glimmer of hope...
As to more concrete plans, I have a lot of UA flights booked (mostly award flights - I’m 1K so no cost to cancel) and some cancellable hotels. I want to be ready if things open up and demand increases quickly, but I am less optimistic of visiting Europe this year than I was 3 months ago.

The most recent notice from Wimbledon (which starts Monday, June 28) states that they believe it most likely that they will be going ahead with limited numbers of fans. That limited number will include all debenture ticket holders. The capacity of Centre Court is just under 15,000. I believe the number of Centre Court debenture holders is 2,250. Add in those of even higher priority (royal box, Wimbledon club member seats) and you are at 3,000. For the first ten days, No 1 court would likely have similar numbers. There will likely be additional seats sold online as the May proposed rules allow 25% capacity.

Wimbledon also states there will be no restrictions on ticket holders visiting the grounds and outer courts.

This all suggests that the AELTC is proceeding on the assumption that the May loosening will likely happen before Wimbledon but they are much more doubtful about the June elimination of all restrictions.

I am posting this because of my assumption that the folks at the AELTC have good connections to the government, and although no one can know if there will be new surges, these folks are more likely than most to have actionable information.

We're going in August for a wedding and just booked Airbnbs with good cancellation policies.

My adult daughter would like to make a short trip to London in July from Boston. She is fully vaccinated since February with the Moderna vaccine. What kind of restrictions are there which might impact her plans

Hi,

At the moment you need a negative pcr test to enter the UK, plus self isolation for 10 days and book a day 2 & 8 test.

No exceptions for vaccinated people at the moment.

However this could change if the US is added to the proposed travel corridor list as green ( perhaps more details this week)

Internal restrictions are being lifted in the UK by July pubs should be able to serve alcohol indoors . Major attractions may need timed reservations online to control capacity.

Stay tuned over the next few weeks for developments.

How long is your daughter planning on being in the UK for?

Regards
TBS

Not long... about 5 days or so. Without a vaccine exemption, it would probably be a futile trip. And the UK would have to accept the CDC vaccine card as evidence of vaccination.

Hi,

I would keep your plans flexible at this stage if the US is added to the green list then a test ( pre arrival & maybe a day 2 post arrival) may be acceptable with no need for self isolation. We should know more in the next week.

Regards

TBS