While nobody knows, we are all pondering, planning and assessing risk/reward. Cheap fares and hotels tempt you to take a risk. Beyond only refundable hotels, the only thing I would add is that if OP does decide to book air travel, consider having a alternative target trip or 2 in mind and be sure that you book air on a carrier that a) has a high likelihood of surviving and b) you can easily use a credit. I would not book that cheap Air Maroc (as an example) flight but rather maybe choose United and have a Hawaii plan in your back pocket if things go in the crapper.

All guess work of course but...

Unless there are any more big suprises, if we have all been vaccinated, AND had boosters, AND have border restrictions, if there’s any enforced social distancing or mask requirements somethings gone wrong somewhere.

Good advice. I booked the airfare with miles. I can redeposit them for a nominal fee. The hotel is refundable up until the travel date, so no worries there. I haven't done any further planning...just watching to see what might happen.

This is my strategy for all my future flights, currently. I am fortunate in that I can take the hit of the redeposit fee, and a couple of times already, BA has cancelled so I've been able to avoid paying that (although I just pushed my trips further forward, but avoided the change fee.)

rb211.

I'm also looking at the UK as my first international trip. The UK is doing better than the US on vaccination rates, so I assume I wouldn't be entering a worse country than the US. And, among all countries with advanced vaccination programs, I would think the UK is the most likely to allow Americans in.
But, as with others, I am only making fully refundable reservations. And I'm making a domestic US plan as a backup so I don't end up in December without a holiday (again).

Apology accepted and appreciated.

I can’t see the UK giving any extra leniency towards Americans when the USA singles out UK resident citizens by banning them altogether.

As the regulations stand at the moment, the UK is a very unattractive destination: You are required to take a pre-departure PCR test, then self-isolate for 10 days with two more expensive tests during that period. If the US were to be added to the UK's red list, you would also need to spend the first 10 days in hotel quarantine - and that would not be a nice hotel of your choice.

Of course things may (and hopefully will) change over the coming months, but as of right now I'd be looking elsewhere...

I imagine this will all change as vaccines become more widespread and as we come off the winter 'high' of new cases. I think the OP said (s)he was traveling later this year and my trip isn't until late summer. Considering the US + UK economic ties, I still think the UK is the most likely to allow Americans in.

We are miles off the "high" of new cases - in fact they are down to early Autumn levels and the R number is at its lowest level since May.
Likewise the US is well off its high.

Both countries are making huge progress on vaccinations. The US is expecting to get everyone who wants one to be fully vaccinated by the end of July and we are only a couple of months behind. Meanwhile we already have all the most vulnerable people partially vaccinated and should have all of them fully vaccinated in ten weeks time. Meanwhile the US has a smaller but significant number of the most vulnerable fully vaccinated and should have all of them done sooner than us.

So the question is political rather than medical. It appear that both Biden and Johnson want to be seen to stop travel. Both seem to put more emphasis on that than opening up their economies. And, because it's not tourist season, there is currently no pressure from the general public to change anything. I would say it's no more than 50/50 that tourist travel will open up between the UK and the US by the Autumn.

To the extent the question becomes political (or economic), as the vaccinated population increases and (hopefully) cases decrease, there will be tremendous pressure on all political leaders to evaluate the purpose of any restrictions. If it is to prevent over burdening the health care system and protecting the most vulnerable, we may very well be there by summer. If it's to completely eradicate the virus, then we may be in this for a long haul. I'm hoping for the former and some common sense, less onerous restrictions as things clear up.

I thought the UK was well ahead of the US on vaccinations.

Edit: I was looking at % of population. Looks like, as of yesterday, the UK has given almost 17m their first dose (25%). The US has given 41m their first dose (13%).

I need to be in London the week including 11/11 and then on to Paris via Eurostar. Hopefully this will be possible. Honestly, some form of COVID will be with us for eternity. Just like the flu and common cold, it won’t go away. I’m trying to be optimistic.

Nobody can advise you as to whether or under what circumstances you will be permitted to enter the UK or France and it is not remotely worth speculating beyond the next 30 days. By way of example, what if the reason which gives rise to the need to be in London can't happen or you can't be there for it.

This is an issue I would revisit in October. I certainly would not put down any funds which are not 100% refundable.

It’s a little difficult to compare - the UK is basically only giving first doses (deferring the second jab) while US is giving 2nd doses as well. In total doses given, the UK is a bit ahead, although US has more fully vaccinated, and that number will grow quickly as the single-dose J&J vaccine rolls out. I think the more interesting number is the drop in cases the UK is seeing now that so many people have had at least one dose. They now have the lowest rate of any large European country. US is much worse, but improving still and doing better than some Europeans.