Since you guys know all the tricks, I thought I'd post this question here. I'm a reporter in Seattle and need your help.

Is there a place where you can track the history of lowest coach ticket prices between two city pairs? ie, not unlike a three month graph or chart of a stock price. Doing a story about picking the right time to buy tickets for the average flyer.

Thanks in advance.

Have you tried our sticky for Mileage Run Tools yet? You will definitely be informed!

Check out this link.

If that doesn't work, search the archives of the Seattle Times with the phrase 'Hamlet Etzioni'. The title of the article is 'UW professor's software may help consumers get better airline prices.'

The article is 2 years old but is about a company trying to create software to do basically what you are asking, finding the right time to buy for the average flyer. An update would be interesting.

Yes, check also Oren's website,

http://www.cs.washington.edu/homes/etzioni/

Good luck!

Frank

Airline tickets fluctuate, and for many reasons. Any generalization of when to buy a ticket is going to be the wrong answer. Then again, what do you expect from a reporter.

channa: ^
been my experience that reporters prefer to draw the easy conclusions, write the story, then investigate just enough to locate the supporting quotes and sound-bytes... there's always that pesky deadline problem.

Perhaps mattTVdude could tackle something easier -- picking Lotto winners comes to mind: lots fewer numbers than fare combinations

or Roulette.
/.

As this has nothing to do with a Mileage Run, I'm going to move it to TravelBuzz.

As a reminder, if you don't have something constructive to add that is related to the original post, don't post anything. Many of the comments that have been added in response so far have been less than helpful.

Dave, a.k.a. dmfriedman
Moderator, Mileage Run

Let's see, there were some helpful answers which I will pursue and then obviously the cynics kicked. I guess it's very comfortable to categorize all reporters as lazy, crafting stories to fit their own personal agenda.

Then again I guess it's easy to categorize mileage runners as people with nothing better to do than sit at computer, finding cheap multi-segment flights and spend their lives on airplanes for the fun of it, only to earn so many more miles so they can sit on more airplanes.

I didn't expect an attack from this group. I'll personally email those who have sent me their leads and let you know what I find. Thanks.

mattTVdude, I am sorry that you got less than a grand reception for your question here. All I can say is, it happens, and with the huge number of folk and their accompanying opinions, almost anything can get negative responses. As I'm sure you've experienced with pieces you've written...(as in wondering, "Where on earth did they get THAT interpretation of my piece????!!)

Now, for my input...

First, I think that the resources mentioned above would give you a good grounding in your subject. Further research feeding off that will probably give you a "feel" for how things are working on the fares.

Second, I think that given the HUGE variables in ticket pricing, it is going to be very hard for you to come up with a good general strategy. I mean, that there are some cities where the fares seem to go by a roulette wheel day by day or even hour by hour. Other cities are more stable...for a while. Then, you have low cost carriers going into a city and lowering fares for a while...then they leave, and fares go up. So the period you are looking at can give non-typical results. And so on, and so on.

Third, with the way the fare structure strategy changes with the airlines, I do think it will be very hard to get historical data that is meaningful today. Or that may be meaningful tomorrow.

I applaud your effort. I do think that a set of general rules like the old stay over a Saturday for best fares, look for close cities that may be cheaper, etc., may be the best you can do at this point in time. Just a suggestion, and I really do hope you can glean some rhyme and reason from past data...we would certainly welcome it!

Best of luck and good wishes in your endeavor! ^

If you look through some of the columns at smartertravel.com (especially the student section), they have some more generalized recommendations, like when you should buy for thanksgiving or spring break.

In my experience, it has always been a hard question to figure out. Generally I will watch fares for a couple of weeks and then buy something when it fluctuates back to the lowest price I have seen. I also use rules of thumb such as any transcon to PDX around $300 is a good deal.

Finally, the best time to buy tickets from (and perhaps to) Alaska is when the oil checks come out and Alaska has a special sale to capitalize on the whole state going to Hawaii.

I'd be happy to answer additional questions on PM.

Following up the suggestion of what happened to Hamlet. Did some checking and learned a fellow reporter here in Seattle was working on the same angle. Here is his story today about Farecast, as it appeared in the Seattle Post Intelligencer.

Bottomline, the fare predicting website is not up and running yet. I'm still pursuing other people who may be planning the same thing.

SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine..._hamlet21.html

Online travel company rebrands as Farecast

The former Hamlet will announce $7 million in new funding
Thursday, July 21, 2005

By JOHN COOK
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Hamlet Inc., an online travel company founded by Oren Etzioni,, a University of Washington computer science professor, today is introducing a new name, Web site and venture capital backer.

The Seattle company, now known as Farecast, plans to announce $7 million in a second round of funding led by Greylock Partners. Existing investors, including Madrona Venture Group and WRF Capital, also participated. Total financing now stands at $8.5 million.

Farecast Chief Executive Hugh Crean, a former vice president at National Leisure Group and Priceline.com, said the money will be used for product development and recruiting. The 34-year-old executive, who joined Farecast in November, declined to discuss details of the company's online consumer travel service. Crean also declined to comment on the number of employees, though he did say Farecast moved this week to a new office in Seattle's lower Queen Anne neighborhood.

"We are growing like weeds over here," he said. New additions to the company in the past 12 months include vice president of engineering Jay Bartot, who previously worked at Seattle area startups Sightward and Netbot. Former Alaska Airlines executives Mike Fridgen and Dave Pelter also recently joined Farecast.

In an interview last fall, Etzioni said the company was developing a technology that allowed people to predict prices of airline tickets from various carriers. The technology, he said, could help someone decide when to buy tickets in order to get the best price.

Critics have questioned whether that is actually possible. But Etzioni, who sits on the company's board, told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer last year that it is "quite predictable."

Greylock's Moshe Mor, who joined the Farecast board as a result of the investment, said the consumer-oriented service will be unveiled in the next three to six months. Mor said Greylock invested in Farecast because of the strong management team, big market opportunity and innovative technology.

"It is a superior way to buy air travel over the Internet," he said.

That could set up competition with well-established online travel companies such as Bellevue-based Expedia, which will be spun off from its parent company, IAC/InterActive Corp., next month, or Norwalk, Conn.-based Priceline.com, which reported revenue of $914 million last year.

Mor did not discount the possibilities of competing against those heavyweights. "At least it is going to be interesting," he said. But with $50 billion spent on online travel in the United States last year, Mor said he believes that Farecast will have a significant effect on how people buy airline tickets.

Update: Farecast went live beta in February.

Also, check out this article about flyspy:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/02/20...ine-ticketing/