Statistics discussion in light of recent crash...
Jul 26, 2000 | 10:32 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 78
Statistics discussion in light of recent crash...
Re: Does the crash affect your feelings about travel?
All,
This is to follow the thread that got started about our feelings towards travel in light of this and other fatal air events that are all over the news this year, it seems. Now, we all have this vague idea that air travel is thousands of times safer than the freeway, but I was wondering if there has been some kind of comprehensive odds analysis done recently?
The reason I'm asking is this: I don't know about you all, but sometimes my family doesn't like the idea that I have to fly every week for work... being part of the New Economy will do that to you.
When we get around to talking about flying (which I love), the question always comes up of "aren't you ever scared?" ... it would be nice to have a list of mathematical, factual, professionally done, possibly even humurous (you're more likely to die of a heart attack with your pants down around your ankles when they find you than you are to die in a plane crash... 
) Has anyone ever seen, created, downloaded, or had a link to a list or report of this nature?
I personally think it would be a great tool to put my family's minds at ease, and it would also be useful when you're discussing occupations in a group and say "yeah, I commute from Chicago to San Francisco every week" and get those "are you nuts to fly that much?!" stares...
any help at all would be appreciated...
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All,
This is to follow the thread that got started about our feelings towards travel in light of this and other fatal air events that are all over the news this year, it seems. Now, we all have this vague idea that air travel is thousands of times safer than the freeway, but I was wondering if there has been some kind of comprehensive odds analysis done recently?
The reason I'm asking is this: I don't know about you all, but sometimes my family doesn't like the idea that I have to fly every week for work... being part of the New Economy will do that to you.
When we get around to talking about flying (which I love), the question always comes up of "aren't you ever scared?" ... it would be nice to have a list of mathematical, factual, professionally done, possibly even humurous (you're more likely to die of a heart attack with your pants down around your ankles when they find you than you are to die in a plane crash... ) Has anyone ever seen, created, downloaded, or had a link to a list or report of this nature?I personally think it would be a great tool to put my family's minds at ease, and it would also be useful when you're discussing occupations in a group and say "yeah, I commute from Chicago to San Francisco every week" and get those "are you nuts to fly that much?!" stares...
any help at all would be appreciated...
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"Welcome to Mister Internet's Neighborhood..."
Jul 26, 2000 | 6:56 pm
#2
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 78
Just wanted to re-iterate that this does not have to be anything original... if you have a like to an on-line report or web page or anything of that nature, I'd appreciat it...
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"Welcome to Mister Internet's Neighborhood..."
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"Welcome to Mister Internet's Neighborhood..."
Jul 27, 2000 | 9:11 am
#3
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Seattle, WA USA - UA Premier, Starwood Gold
Posts: 31
Unfortunately, I don't remember where I found the exact statistic, but I do remember that when that EgyptAir 767 went down, I heard the following:
Total number of cycles (takeoffs and landings) for all 767's since their inception: 3,000,000.
Total number of 767 hull losses since their inception: 3 (including EgyptAir).
Ratio: For every one million 767 flights, +1+ flight crashes.
One in a million...that seems pretty safe to me.
Jon (KSEA)
Total number of cycles (takeoffs and landings) for all 767's since their inception: 3,000,000.
Total number of 767 hull losses since their inception: 3 (including EgyptAir).
Ratio: For every one million 767 flights, +1+ flight crashes.
One in a million...that seems pretty safe to me.
Jon (KSEA)
Jul 27, 2000 | 9:38 am
#4
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 470
Look up the NHTSA for figures on auto versus airplane deaths. I cannot provide too many stats from memory, but, I do remember the following:
You are 250 more times likely to die in the U.S. as a result of a motor vehicle accident versus an airplane accident. Something along the lines of an average of 42,000 auto deaths and 165 airplane deaths per year. Actually, deer kill four times as many people per year as die in airline crashes.
It is not that the deer are incredibly good shots with a rifle. They do tend to make a heck of an impact on your lifestyle when you encounter them at 60 mph (88 fps), though.
In 1998, there was not a single accident related death on any United States based carrier anywhere in the WORLD. I believe that your odds of expiring due to an accident on something on the order of one in ten million, and that the average person would have to take a flight a day for 15,000 years before the odds caught up with them. Of course, if your lucky number is picked, your odds become 1 to 1.
Point being to the above that you are safer in the aircraft than on the road, and I actually believe that you are safer in the aircraft than at home (accidents related to mowing, slipping, etc.). Somewhat along the lines of our short-lived was with Iraq wherein the average soldier had a lower mortality rate from all causes than the average U.S. male in the 18-25 age range from automobile and gun related deaths at home.
You are 250 more times likely to die in the U.S. as a result of a motor vehicle accident versus an airplane accident. Something along the lines of an average of 42,000 auto deaths and 165 airplane deaths per year. Actually, deer kill four times as many people per year as die in airline crashes.
It is not that the deer are incredibly good shots with a rifle. They do tend to make a heck of an impact on your lifestyle when you encounter them at 60 mph (88 fps), though.
In 1998, there was not a single accident related death on any United States based carrier anywhere in the WORLD. I believe that your odds of expiring due to an accident on something on the order of one in ten million, and that the average person would have to take a flight a day for 15,000 years before the odds caught up with them. Of course, if your lucky number is picked, your odds become 1 to 1.
Point being to the above that you are safer in the aircraft than on the road, and I actually believe that you are safer in the aircraft than at home (accidents related to mowing, slipping, etc.). Somewhat along the lines of our short-lived was with Iraq wherein the average soldier had a lower mortality rate from all causes than the average U.S. male in the 18-25 age range from automobile and gun related deaths at home.