Will airlines be forced to remove rows and middle seats in the future?
 

Was reading some post on other sites about how airlines should not be allowed to seat people in the middle anymore or have every other row removed. What's the point of social distancing if we all get back on airplanes with middle seats full on 2,4,6,8,10,12 hour flights? If restaurants and bars are expected to cut seating by 50% after this wouldn't transit be the same?

Even with relaxed conditions (removing middle seats and every other row won't even come close to meeting current guidelines), I'm sure the airlines will have to make some concessions with seating density.

who is saying that? I have heard suggestions to temporarily limit patrons in restaurants to one per table (as done in parts of China), but are you talking about permanent restrictions? Removing rows permanently? Seems... unlikely.

I'm not saying people have said that yet on the record but you know it's coming. Are you going to an eatery when this is all over and sitting three feet from another patron on both sides? Will you sit in a middle seat on a 10 hour flight?

For temporary restrictions, it seems like a lot of work to change seating layouts. Permanent restrictions seem very unlikely.
Eventually no one will remember or care about what's going on now until it happens again. Rinse and Repeat. People have short memories. Ask any historian.

There’s another thread where this came up. If you are going to keep pax 6 ft. Apart, you’d need to do much more than leave middle seats empty and take out every other row. On mainline narrow body, in both regular Y and E+, you’d need to remove 2 of every 3 rows, and also only seat people at the windows. In Domestic F, you could presumably do every 2nd row and just make the distance in front and back, but you’d probably only get 1 person per row. For UAX, you’d only get 1 person in every third row. In any case, in any environment where the the demand is much greater than the current, with general LF being ~10-15%, you can’t really do it unless carriers are willing to lose tons of $ on every flight. Right now, not even sure why the majors, with the current loads, aren’t just saying this isn’t worth it, let’s shut the flying down for a few weeks.

It's really simple.

Will airlines be forced to remove rows/middle seats? Doubt it.

And in the event it happens in the distance future, fares would rise. Basic economics.

The premise of this thread is that someone read a post on some other website in which some person said that something might happen. It's just another post with no factual basis whatsoever.

Even if carriers do implement some form of distancing for a short period of time, there is no reason to remove seats in order to do that and then restore those seats when this is over. Moreover, as pointed out, these distancing efforts do not even meet minimum guidelines so are just a sop to make people feel better about flying when the real answer is that they should not fly at all.

By this time next year will all will of had it now with antibodies or have had vaccine shot.

But think airline industry will never be the same.

I know it’s coming? No, I don’t actually know.

I personally don’t go to eateries where I rub shoulders with strangers even in normal times. And I don’t book a 10 hour flight where my seat would be a middle seat unless the person on one side is my wife (and even then it’d better be PE or better).

But what you are speculating might be the new normal sounds like business class separation with crappy economy seats. I don’t think that is going to be the new normal. What are the fares going to look like?

Mmmm RJ200 retrofit with herringbone suites

They aren't, so your question is moot.

I can save you some time, none of these things will be happening.

We know it's coming - this virus will be around forever, the entire future of mankind, there will never be a vaccine, it will never ramp down, and every industry will have to adjust to keep human beings 6+ feet apart forever?

No, I don't think anyone even thinks that's coming.

(EDIT: Actually, I must be wrong, because at least one person thinks it)

The point is that this is not going to last forever. There have been pandemics before and there will be pandemics in the future, but they don't last forever. I don't see why there would be any such permanent measure put in place in planes or in restaurants. All of these things are temporary measures until the virus dies off or a vaccine is developed.

Before the airlines remove seats they will invent disposable space suits for us to wear while flying.

This. Plus there are so many other places to catch it.

At most, US airlines might block out certain seats in the seating map to try to encourage social distance, or sell fewer tickets per plane and re-assign seats to spread people out, but I doubt they'd spend the money to physically retrofit planes.

Though as long as flight loads are under ~30%, there's probably enough room for people to spread out themselves. I guess part of the question is just how long these low flight loads will be regular.

There is so much to find at fault in this thread its tough to know where to start but ;
Why only US airlines
No airline will remove seats
the world will go back to normal at least in terms of restaurant seating and airline seating etc etc etc, they more it changes, the more it will stay the same, already in China , life is getting back to normal and it will step by step everywhere.

My belief is that here in the US the government will be forced to end the shut down before the crisis is over. It's simple math. The human misery index of millions unemployed (and many can't get through to file for unemployment benefits) will soon surpass the human misery index from COVID-19.

For the past 20 years airlines have had a business model based upon getting a butt in every seat on every flight, or close to it. So how will flyers feel about continuing to rub shoulders with perfect strangers for hours when the virus is still around, or not forgotten and could return?

Airlines could try to keep the draconian cuts in place, jack up fares and try to eek out a profit by flying around 1970s style 50% load factors. Some business travel will continue as well as non price sensitive leisure travel. But what about the ULCCs that have catered to the $49 ow crowd?

I suppose given how at least in the West people have become addicted to cheap prices with $108 round trip transcons they'd be willing to get back into sardine mode. But that's not exactly a recipe for sustained operations.

Just to clarify
1. I only mentioned US airlines because that's the context that I'm familiar with, I don't want to presume about areas of the world I'm less familiar with (shocker for FT, I know).
2. I agree, no airlines will remove seats. (I was saying that in the short term, the digital seating chart/seat assignments might be changed to spread out people, without making any physical changes).
3. Eventually, yes the world will go back to normal. But again, coming from the US, where we were not as aggressive as China in monitoring and containing the virus, I expect the situation to last longer here than it has in China. (And when there are some parts of the world shut down, and some open, to me that likely means there will still be a patchwork of international travel restrictions, at least until there's a feasible cure/vaccine).

Ok we agree no airlines anywhere will remove seats ( the title of this thread ) and the world will get back to normal, its just a question of how long that will take and how.

It looks like I wasn't far off.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/trave...riority-skies/

Looks like you were way, way off, not even a hint of a seat being removed.

And its all ridculous, how can this be safe !

Today is not a new normal -- we are viewing the upside-down-parabola crisis curve from its very nadir -- so there are not going to be permanent infrastructural changes made on the basis of today's realities.

In any event airline economics say it would be less ruinous to just park the planes than to hike prices astronomically and cap LFs at 40%. When it's $3,000 to fly cross-country the 40% LF will be moot because you'd never get enough takers. Very good news for Greyhound though.

Way off? The reason I mentioned remove the seat was to ensure no one can sit in it.

Looks like they are blacking them out. If they don't remove them will they tarp them over to make sure? They are going to have to police it if they leave them in, right?

Is this really a problem? Are people dying to sit in middle seats next to someone else when they have the option to sit in an aisle or window with the middle blocked?

It boggles my mind that people see a forever future with "social distancing". Even right now, there's a ton of people who think it's a load of crap, even with "people dying".

And its accepted now that you need 2-4 meters distance to have any effect, an empty seat width is 100% totally useless as a way to reduce infection.

And Super Mario is right, this is not the future, no one is removing seats or tarping over seats etc etc etc

Suppose the middle seat isn't blocked and someone has a lap chid. With high probability the parent will put the kid in the empty middle seat, right next to the customer with the misfortune to be assigned to sit on the other side of the blocked seat. Alternatively, if a family can't get seats together, they'll move into the middle seat that's supposed to be empty.

Agree this would be an issue if it was only middle seats open, however at this point flights are averaging about a dozen people, maybe two dozen if it's extremely busy.

Now, if traffic picks up again then I could see the need to properly block the middles. A simple fix would be installing a little permanent table like AA used to do in rows 16 and 17 on their 738s back when they were staffed with only 3 FAs to keep the seats at 150.

And a one seat distancing will help....how ?

I think scrapping the ridiculous high density domestic 777s would be an excellent place to start!

I couldn't agree with you more......... maybe the cure is worse than the illness.
After 9/11/01, there was an intense focus on security. I expect that there will be an intense focus on health in the future - the good ol' yellow fever health card comes to mind - especially for international flights. Probably disinfecting cabins during turn-arounds will become standard operating procedure.....

The future of Airline seating density
 

It will really be up to the consumer as how bad they want to fly and what they are willing to pay. If consumers as a whole refuse middle seat assignments or stop booking basic economy than airlines will be forced to make changes. Would not count on our government doing this for us.

Could not agree more! The whole thing with plunging the world economy into oblivion over this is ridiculous. Is SARS-COV-2 dangerous? Absolutely, especially to people in my age group (Anyone over 60 or so.). But if people stop to look at the DATA and ignore the EMOTION, you will see that since January, here in the USA, 5 times as many people have died of common influenza (the flu) than have died of SARS-COV-2. Yet we have nearly tripled the unemployment rate and likely bankrupt >25% of all SMEs in the country in response. CARES will do little to reduce this toll as all it does is kick the bill down the road as we will all suffer through increased taxes that will continue to depress the economy and increase the numbers of the poor.

All this has come through a perfect storm of an ignorant public panic, incompetent government response, and irresponsible media sensationalism.

By way of example, an educated public would have reduced travel and restaurants would have reduced seating capacity to maintain safe spacing without closing. A sensible government would have focused on education and publicity programs to encourage appropriately safe behaviors, and instituted a comprehensive testing program immediately in order to isolate and contain spread of the virus rather than a de facto declaration of military law. And a responsible media would have published factual data and rational analysis rather than sensational headlines that pour gasoline on the public panic that rested beneath the surface early on.

The New York Times is a serious culprit here where they published a manipulated and patently false report, since promulgated across the world, that the common flu only kills less than 0.1 % of those who get it. They took the LOWEST reported death rate in the US from the flu (12,000 in the 2011-2012 flu season) and divided it by the HIGHEST reported flu infection rate (45,000,000 in the 2017-2018 flu season). Reality is that the death rate from the common flu hovers between 0.9 and 1.2 % on a year to year basis (according to CDC data) which is approximately the same as SARS-COV-2. SARS-COV-2 is certainly more severe a threat to the aged, particularly those over the age of 70 or 80. In Italy, the death rate for those over 80 is greater than 7.5% while for those under the age of 60 it is less than 0.9%, of which most have compromised immune systems. But one does not hear this in the news, only that the death rate in Italy (where the average age is a full ten years greater than the USA) is over 7%. Well, that is because most of the people who have contracts SARS-COV-2 in Italy have been the aged because there are so many more of them!

Did we need to take serious measures to control the spread of SARS-COV-2? Most certainly, and many of the actions and behaviors we see today are indeed appropriate. However, taking these actions on a voluntary basis through education and publicity would have had far less impact on the economy and thus on the vast majority of the population.

Those who have taken these draconian military law measures will certainly say, 'look how many lives we saved.' But the reality is that they will have saved exactly zero lives. In the end, most of the people who would get SARS-COV-2 will still get it at some point in the next year or so. And those who will die form it will do so. The losses will be tragic for each and every one of us who is impacted either directly or indirectly, and we will mourn and grow and move forward.

As MiamiAirport said, the misery index from these government actions (combined with public ignorance and media irresponsibility) already far outweighs the impact of SARS-COV-2. It is time to move on and try to rebuild the lives of the millions who have been needlessly impoverished.

Yes, I will sit close to others when this is all over. I never sit in a middle seat on a 10 hour flight. For that, I fly Business or not at all.

Another question...Are you willing to pay 5x the former price (or more) to get your desired space?

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/undefinedThe answer to this question is still undecided. We just don't know how this will pan out in the year ahead. With some secondary or repeat infections in Korea it looks like there might be no immunity even after having been infected. This would definitely be a game changer if true.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/undefinedBefore Covid-19 we had the 737 Max. Irrespective of the outcome of certification, I was and am unprepared to fly the Max mainly because of the terrible seat density and washroom situation of most configurations.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/undefinedThe result of the pandemic will be that many people will be willing to pay higher prices and travel less rather than to expose themselves to terribly cramped conditions and the resulting exposure to illness (not only covid). I still remember AA when they came out with that wonderful seat pitch advertising and configurations. I flew AA exclusively because of that. Unfortunately that fell by the wayside when LCC and ULCC became more the norm and AA decided to compete with the worst instead of being the best.

Possibly there's going to be some sort of social distancing for a time being. Whether this is needed or hype I'll let others debate. Airlines may need to limit load factors possibly being forced to block middle seats, at least for some interim period. In the US since most airlines are going to take the bailout they will be at the mercy of the government and what it requires.

I'm sure the airlines want to cut capacity because they've already seem convinced demand will not rebound to pre 2020 levels, raise fares and still get a butt in every seat. How is the question. Business flyers have gotten addicted to frequency in the US while airlines have got addicted to filling all those empty coach seats with BE type flyers. If leisure travel doesn't come back due to an unemployment rate over 20% there's going to be lots of empty seats chasing too few paxs. Parking lots of new a/c with debt and lease payments isn't going to work. We could see another round of Chapter 11 to cancel a/c leases, return a/c to lenders, void union contracts and walk away from lots of vendor invoices due.

Gesture of distance seating
 

Ignoring the highly subjective but understandable venting here, I can report that when I recently reserved a flight to Rome for late August on Alitalia, the seating chart showed a helical or zig zag pattern of selectable seats in economy, which resulted in a loss of about 50% of usual seating options. I know the virus doesn’t respect such boundaries more than no smoking sections prevent inundation with smoke, but I thought it was a welcome gesture nonetheless.