I've been considering the future of gaming the miles and points system as many (American) flyertalkers have done, including myself. Short answer: the whole thing feels dead to me.

2016 seemed like the last hurrah, and then nakedly revenue-based schemes replaced distance in the air sector. In the hotel sphere, I've watched as the Hilton Honors program has effectively become a rebate scheme. I think that I speak for many when I say that many of us are/were in it for the aspirational redemptions. Beyond a passing smugness, is getting a great cents per mile redemption on ORD-JAX or cents per point redemption on the Oklahoma Airport Hampton Inn worth writing home about?

Needless to say, I've watched as Y earning rates have stagnated or been cut, while J and F remain quite rewarding - even being increased. On top of that, who hasn't devalued their redemption rates in the last couple of years?

Parallel to a shift in the programs I keep an eye on (AA, BA, SQ, DL, Hilton), I noticed a subtle but profound shift in the blog world. Some of the big travel hacker blogs are less of a points "How-to, because isn't this trip super awesome?!" to much more of an aspirational made-for-instagram reality "show."

If you're a J or F flyer, it still seems like quite a good time, relatively speaking. Given redemption rates, you'd have to be a diehard churner or to make that work.

I'll keep this short lest I ramble on, and we're all veterans anyway. Any thoughts?

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Not dead, nor on life support. Just not as rewarding as it use to be.

You do have a keen eye!

I certainly agree that the blogs have become total crap.

At this point, I just amass points to take an occasional jaunt in the first class cabin on my domestic flights (sadly, I don't do any international travel).

The actionable "how to" content has fallen away in favor of "Look at my latest champagne shot. [BTW, thanks bro for clicking on my credit card affiliate link. Your clicks and data make my adventures financially viable!]"

I feel like Y travel (at least domestically) has never been a good way to redeem points, with a few exceptions.

That said, I think earning points will become harder over time. It's already becoming more difficult to justify the relatively high interchange rates the card networks charge in the US when they've been heavily capped elsewhere (AmEx recently announced they were cutting theirs, for instance). However, I don't think they'll ever be as low as e.g. 0.3% like in Europe--at least not without a dramatic change in government, anyway.

Y redemptions tend to vary in terms of how redeemers feel. Most of Flyertalk (or perhaps the most prominent and vocal segment?) seems to believe that J and F redemptions are "best" - when you consider the notional cash saved. I'd consider myself part of that contingent. In the wilds of meatspace (i.e. the real world), most seem to prefer cheaper/free Y tickets - "I can travel more!"

That's an interesting angle on earning that I've always wondered. In my experiences living in the UK, AU, and NZ, I always wondered why credit card ownership was rarer, less rewarding, and more expensive (annual fees more common, transaction charges). I had assumed that it was due to a moderately less profligate consumer culture than the US as well as a less competitive landscape of card issuers competing for slots in your wallet. Your explanation is the eureka moment for me.

For the average non-FTer, I can see Y redemptions making more sense. Availability is better, so there's a higher chance of getting multiple seats on the same flight if you're traveling with others.

For myself, I'm able to take 6-7 weeks off a year, which is enough for two big international trips a year. I can earn enough points to cover those trips in F/J Savings miles by redeeming for Y wouldn't let me travel more, so why bother?

In any case, the future is bleak for miles and points right now because the economy is strong so flights are full. Come the next recession the industry will get desperate again, the marketing teams will once again come up with silly gameable promos to hit their OKRs and Pudding Guy 2.0 will be born.

The relatively high interchange is also a big reason why merchants in the US seem a lot less happy with accepting cards than elsewhere (the many lawsuits the big retailers have filed over the years, a lot of smaller businesses having minimums and/or charging extra, etc.) I suspect most would still be cash only even today if it weren't for the issuers creating demand by giving us lots of rewards over time.

Hopefully a good balance is reached so that we don't lose out on (too many) benefits while cutting back on merchant animosity.

It may not be the good old days, but it hardly feels bleak to me. The difference to me now is that you have to have a decent amount of organic travel, spend or both to make it work well. Gone are the days of signing up 20 times for the same credit card to get a first class redemption, but I struggle to accept that they ever weee or should have been the norm.

My my wife and I have managed to do almost every long haul trip in J or F over the last 24 months (over ten trips) off the back of award redemptions so I wouldn�t accept bleak.

I have paid for J for the last 4 years now out of my own pocket. Points/status, etc, are literally the last thing I think about anymore.

I reached a stage where I started to realize that none of that really mattered, as the programs have been getting stripped out and watered down for years. Why ? As a direct result of the thousands of people who gamed the system, and didn't earn their points by actually paying the airline, and then flying on it.

It would make me happy if the entire concept went away for good.

The programs didn't dry up because of gamers, churners, mileage runners, etc.; there were never enough of them to matter. They turned to dust because there are only three network carriers left in the US, so less competition, fewer options, less of a role for loyalty. When AA invented the modern FF program in the early '80s it was competing against PA, TW, BN, WA, US, CO, UA, DL, EA, PE, and I don't know who else -- all robust network carriers. Today AA competes with UA, DL, and Southwest. There's no need to reward customers for their business when they have no choice but to keep giving it to you.

Agreed, and much of that competition is notional. E.g: A DFW flyer is pretty much an AA captive barring a long drive to IAH.

For the record, you posted this statement on the world's oldest and largest frequent flyer, points churning, mileage running site in the world, with over 600,000 members. If "we" weren't a problem, airlines wouldn't have moved to revenue based programs and set up FF program compliance/audit departments.