Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Travel&Dining > TravelBuzz
Reload this Page >

price drop aggravating

price drop aggravating

Old Jan 31, 2017, 6:21 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 661
price drop aggravating

The fare that I bought 8 months in advance just dropped by $300 My mistake should have not booked so early despite reading about it. I think 4 months for international travel is optimal. Luckily I did not buy the ticket at the absolute high point.

This fare has dropped by almost 60% and is almost free now when I see the tax breakdown... how can airlines price their flights so low? This is a multi continent flight to Africa..geez!
k374 is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 6:33 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Programs: AA
Posts: 377
If you were satisfied with the price of the ticket when you purchased it...no need going back and making yourself mad about it!
backprop is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 6:37 pm
  #3  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 661
lol, i'm tracking it to learn for the future what is the best time to purchase a ticket. Clearly 8 months out was a bad move. I have heard suggestions that 4 months for international nonpeak was optimal. The issue was that I needed this exact airline/flight and could not be flexible due to work time off.

I paid $621 for the flight + $610 in taxes, and it's now $331 + $610 in taxes. Now I find it absolutely crazy that an airline would only charge $331 for 20+ hr flight to Africa and back (4 segments each 10 hours approx) so I thought what I paid was a good deal, apparently airlines give away flights for nearly free as well... I did not know that. Now I am educated.
k374 is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 7:07 pm
  #4  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: MEL CHC
Posts: 20,920
Originally Posted by k374
This fare has dropped by almost 60% and is almost free now when I see the tax breakdown.
And if the price went up 60% you would no problems paying the extra $$?
Or would you expect the price you paid to stick?

Are you including carrier surcharges in the $610 of taxes?
Mwenenzi is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 7:39 pm
  #5  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
There is no "best" time to purchase. There may be overall likelihoods, but because you are booking a specific flight on a specific day, you can't predict.

If there are a lot of empty seats the day before the flight, a time when seats are usually expensive, a carrier will sell them in its lowest fare bucket. But, if you wait, there might not be any at all.
Often1 is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 8:51 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Indonesia
Posts: 361
Originally Posted by Often1
There is no "best" time to purchase. There may be overall likelihoods, but because you are booking a specific flight on a specific day, you can't predict.

If there are a lot of empty seats the day before the flight, a time when seats are usually expensive, a carrier will sell them in its lowest fare bucket. But, if you wait, there might not be any at all.
I agree with this.

You can make your own prediction by keeping track how low the fare can be in specific route for longer period (i.e 6-12 months) and set your maximum budget for it. the date will be inflexible or even sometimes unpredictable, but you can prepare for it. if even lower price suddenly occured, what can you do unless swallow the pills and move on?
blueferrari is offline  
Old Jan 31, 2017, 9:05 pm
  #7  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Formerly DTW and SJC, now TYO
Programs: IHG Plat, Hilton Gold, SPG Gold, Delta Scrub
Posts: 64
If you have to travel to a specific place during a specific time, there isn't much you can honestly do and might as well not worry about it. There is no real rhyme or reason with airfare pricing other than knowing where peak season is or that tickets booked within 30 days generally are priced higher (at least from personal experience).

But like another poster said, if you were OK with the price before then there's no point in getting upset about it. Or book with miles, the price in miles only gets worse!
pairofkeets is offline  
Old Feb 1, 2017, 7:57 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Programs: AC; Fairmont Plat; Accor Plat; SPG Plat, BA Gold; A3*G; AB Gold;
Posts: 232
I've never used these guys, nor do I have any affiliation to them, but I've heard good things...

http://www.flightnetwork.com/pages/pdp-learn-more/
jantaoYVR is offline  
Old Feb 1, 2017, 11:19 am
  #9  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 13,565
Depending on the airline, fare rules and their cancellation fees, it might be worth cancelling and rebooking. Did it once when there was a fare change of a couple of hundred dollars, as the change fee was only $75, so I ended up better off.
emma69 is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2017, 1:11 pm
  #10  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,501
Originally Posted by k374
lol, i'm tracking it to learn for the future what is the best time to purchase a ticket. Clearly 8 months out was a bad move. I have heard suggestions that 4 months for international nonpeak was optimal. The issue was that I needed this exact airline/flight and could not be flexible due to work time off.

I paid $621 for the flight + $610 in taxes, and it's now $331 + $610 in taxes. Now I find it absolutely crazy that an airline would only charge $331 for 20+ hr flight to Africa and back (4 segments each 10 hours approx) so I thought what I paid was a good deal, apparently airlines give away flights for nearly free as well... I did not know that. Now I am educated.
It might not really be $610 in taxes. Airlines are notorious for burying junk fees into tax-sounding names. To the individual cash buyer, it might not matter. But to a travel agent getting a commission, or a corporate buyer getting a discount on the base airfare, it can matter. And you might also get the pleasure of paying the junk fees on your FF-mile redemptions.

Anyway, $610 in true government tax sounds high. Although I suppose it's possible depending on the country (-ies) involved.

I usually try to buy long-haul int'l about 3-4 months in advance. I think that's a decent general bit of advice, unless the trip absolutely must be flown on specific dates. But others here are right in that there's no hard/fast rule. Flights can fill up and send fares a *lot* higher just as easily as they can stay relatively open and available when an airline markets its coming-season sale fares.
pinniped is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2017, 3:58 pm
  #11  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 661
the reason I booked early was because of my work schedule I had to take this EXACT flight on the EXACT date and was concerned it would be full. I am doing a trek which starts on a fixed date.. I do have a couple days buffer in case flights are delayed but this particular itinerary worked out the best for me.

So the price was really high around $1600 and sat that way for about 2 months so I waited, one day it suddenly fell to $1230 so I jumped and locked that in. A few days after I booked it went back up to $1550 or so, thought I got lucky but then 2 weeks later it fell to $1100 and now it's $920!!!

So question is, if the flight wasn't selling then why not drop from $1600 to $920 in one shot instead of going on a roller coaster ride over a period of 2 weeks? Who controls these prices? is it a computer?
k374 is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2017, 8:03 am
  #12  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Programs: DL GM
Posts: 640
Originally Posted by k374
So question is, if the flight wasn't selling then why not drop from $1600 to $920 in one shot instead of going on a roller coaster ride over a period of 2 weeks? Who controls these prices? is it a computer?
https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel...-all-the-time/

https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel...nge-135-times/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_management
WWGuy is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2017, 8:18 am
  #13  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,501
Originally Posted by k374
is it a computer?
Yep - it's yield management.

I wouldn't worry about it any more than I worry about whether or not I bought a stock at the precise low point of a price dip or sold it exactly at its peak. Trying to time it exactly right can burn you just as easily as save you.

You could have bought it for $1600 if you had the worst possible timing. You could have bought for $900 if you had perfect timing. You actually got $1200. Sounds like a long, complex itin where you got the exact flights you wanted. You did okay. In the grand scheme of the total costs of the trip, it's not a huge deal. Just enjoy the trip!
pinniped is offline  
Old Feb 4, 2017, 1:42 am
  #14  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada, USA, Europe
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 31,452
I recently bought some company shares. I was angry three days later when the shares dropped in price as I could have bought the same number of shares for far less money. In order to avoid this happening again, I've invested in a crystal ball so that I will know precisely the future price development of everything I buy.
LondonElite is offline  
Old Feb 17, 2017, 8:38 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Chicago, IL., U.S.A.
Programs: Global Entry WN, UA, AS, DL, NH; IHG, Wyndham, Hilton, Best Value Inn, Marriott, Starwood, Ramada
Posts: 500
Exclamation Buyers' remorse.

Well, if the trip you're trying to plan is Japan Do! 5 in Tokyo, you have only a limited span of dates which will get you to Tokyo in time for the Do! events there.
You do not have to go to the Korea Do! thereafter, but if you did, that would also restrict the dates | flights you could accept.
I used to go by the recommendation that international travel should be booked 32-45 days out, but in the 21st Century, I believe this is no longer a valid benchmark. The el cheapo, super discount airfare could turn up at any time before the date of the first flight on your itinerary.
Determine what is the date by which you will no longer look for a flight pair. If an acceptable cheap flight occurs before then, book it and cease worrying about it.
You'll have fun.
Ultimately, that is what matters.
pudgym29 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.