GetSetJetSet

It seems every day brings more and more bad news. Also, the incomplete nature of the information we have been given, and the way that much of it seems to contradict the way things have actually played out is making me hesitant to travel.

I am supposed to fly PHL-FRA-VIE-KIV on Saturday and do a trip through Moldova, Transnistria, Romania, Latvia & Lithuania, but in light of the two cases announced today in Macedonia (which will turn into god knows how many over the next 2-3 weeks based on people who were exposed while these two showed symptoms) and the case in Australia, I am not sure I want to be in an airport.

FTcadence

In a survey conducted by NBC News, 58% of (U.S.-based) respondents supported banning all flights to the U.S. from Ebola-affected countries.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...278640701.html

cruisr

So, are you cancelling the trip? I had not heard about Australia's case or Macedonia's case. Ill have to google it.

I wonder if this thread will be moved to Omni?

Paul56

In a word... no.

But I have no intention, need or want to fly into Africa.

ajGoes

Yes, now you mention it, I have indeed been thinking about travel. I've been thinking it's a great time to fly internationally, as flights will probably be getting less crowded.

allset2travel

Food for thought:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...l-America.html

MSPeconomist

I haven't cancelled anything, but I am procrastinating on purchasing plane tickets for future trips until I see more about how this will play out. Frankly, I'm more concerned about the hysteria than anything. I would not want to be forced to undergo a blood test in some developing country or other place with a substandard health care system nor would I want to risk being quarantined someplace awful. [I'm thinking of the story about a traveling school group being forced to stay in some horrible hotel in Hong Kong rather than their planned accommodations when the authorities feared that they had been exposed to bird flu or something--not SARS--a couple years ago.]

If enough people don't travel for whatever (founded or unfounded) reason, airfares and hotel rates could go down significantly again.

iahphx

I'm fascinated by this topic, but mostly from the perspective of using psychology to make investment decisions. Many of you may not know, but in the last week or two, airline stocks have sold off hard, partly due to the "ebola scare" (and partly due to just about every other asset class selling off hard). What's interesting about airlines is that the sell-off has occurred at the same time as oil prices have collapsed: the airlines are looking at billions of dollars in fuel savings going forward. So this ebola outbreak is going to have to be truly terrible to result in reduced earnings for the airlines.

Last week, after the Dallas ebola case surfaced, AA and BA's CEOs were asked whether there was any decline in bookings due to ebola. They said no. It's certainly possible that has changed in the last few days, but I tend to doubt it.

First, anyone who's thinking of deferring a trip -- except to the affected West African nations -- is acting irrational. No one has gotten ebola on an airplane, and the risk is beyond miniscule. You are in far more danger of breaking your neck in your shower this morning than contracting ebola on an airplane. You are certainly at more risk of the entrovirus in the Philly area than you would be of ebola on a transatlantic flight.

Of course, we all know that people ARE irrational. They are bad at processing risks. Scary new risks register far more in our brains than "old" risks. The good news about ebola is that it's not very contagious, so unless you're in West Africa or are treating an ebola victim in a Western hospital, the contagion risk is extremely small (unmeasurable, in fact). Since the disease is not likely to spread beyond a few cases outside of Africa, my guess is that in a couple of weeks, Western travelers will have to find something else to worry about.

I'd also note that if you're planning travel to Africa (as I am) in the coming months, Africa is a big freakin' continent. Do not rely on that wall map to understand this. Africa is enormous, and the distances between West Africa and, say, southern Africa are thousands of miles. Like it's something like a 6,000 mile drive from Monrovia to Johannesburg. And there's not much human "traffic" between these places. So don't be silly about that, either.

l etoile

There is no case in Australia. Ms. Kovack tested negative for Ebola.

As for Macedonia, I understand samples were sent to Germany for testing. I do not believe there are reported results yet.

This is a caregivers' disease. It is difficult to transmit. Children touch everything and seldom get it. I was reading the various headlines regarding the Australian nurse ..."Nurse With Suspected Ebola Hospitalized" is certainly far more attention-getting (and fear-inducing) than "Nurse Tested for Ebola."

As to the question, I'm not changing my travel plans. In fact, my son is a virologist who works with Ebola. I will continue to see him as often as I can.

KatW

Ebola is not changing my travel plans. I'm booked for Europe multiple times in 2015 and 2016. I've not booked any African travel but would not avoid most countries there including Kenya, Zambia, South Africa.

GetSetJetSet

I wasn't worried about it until the Macedonia cases today. As I would be somewhat in that vicinity (Moldova, Transnistria, Romania), it gives me pause. It's not just the cases we are hearing about, but what we AREN'T hearing. We're told that you have to be in close contact with an infected person, but we have no explanation for:

- The nurse in Spain who was in protective gear and was only in the room twice and caught ebola.
- The Cameraman in Liberia who apparently contracted the disease after washing a car an ebola victim had been in.
- The potential case of the Sheriff in Dallas who did nothing but enter the apartment of the infected man who died.
- No information AT ALL as to how the Britons in Macedonia became infected or who they may have exposed before going to the authorities.

All of this makes me feel like perhaps it is easier to transmit than we are being told, and the information is being squelched to keep people from panicking. As I said, my main concern would be the close proximity of being on a plane/in the airport, and now in traveling to SE Europe as there are apparently cases there. I don't have to travel until Sat., but I am very much on the fence. I know it SOUNDS irrational and statistically it's wildly unlikely to become infected, but it feels a bit reckless to go on a leisure trip and increase the danger when there is no actual need to go.

Edit:

I am also booked for Southern Africa for NYE with a week long stop in Senegal on the way back home. I am pretty sure I am going to be canceling that.

Jenbel

I've got a trip to HKG next month, which sees me transiting through AMS and LHR on the outbound and return - not places I'd want to go through in the event of an international epidemic. I think I'll be fine to go - if it was tomorrow I'd have no problems. But we are kind of waiting to see how well this can be contained, now its starting to spread beyond the initial locales. In two weeks, we might be wondering what all the fuss was about....

l etoile

The nurse was actually a nurse's assistant who changed the diaper for a priest with Ebola and was not properly trained in the use of what gear she was given, by all accounts.

The cameraman apparently got splashed when he cleaned a vehicle an Ebola victim died in.

He does not have Ebola. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dallas-s...hospital-says/


We do not know anyone in Macedonia was infected. A man died of an unknown illness. Samples have been sent for testing per standard protocol.

GetSetJetSet

Splashed with what? I haven't seen the full story on any of these. I believe you, but links please if you have them handy.

GadgetFreak

I think my wife and I would both agree that the most memorable, significant trip we have taken (and we, and especially me, have been to a lot of places) was to Zambia and South Africa. That said, this wouldn't be the time I would want to go back (and yes I know those countries aren't impacted directly).