Boeing 787 Dreamliner Woes Pile Up - Seattle Times
Dec 19, 2010, 1:55 am
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Boeing 787 Dreamliner Woes Pile Up - Seattle Times
What are your thoughts?
I think CO's IAH-AKL will be the first flight by a US airline. But if the 787 can't be ETOPS certified when it's delivered, then airlines will have to put it on easier routes to proves its reliability.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...amliner19.html
I think CO's IAH-AKL will be the first flight by a US airline. But if the 787 can't be ETOPS certified when it's delivered, then airlines will have to put it on easier routes to proves its reliability.
As Boeing prepares to announce yet another delay for the 787 Dreamliner — at least three months, possibly six or more — the crucial jet program is in even worse shape than it appears.
A top Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) official 10 days ago warned Boeing that without further proof of the plane's reliability, it won't be certified to fly the long intercontinental routes that airlines expect it to serve.
Among the 787's lesser ongoing problems is "rain in the plane," the term used for heavy condensation dripping inside the jet's composite plastic fuselage.
"The purpose of flight tests is to find out what you did wrong," said a senior engineer who expects the 787 will ultimately prove successful. "But the amount of stuff we are finding is horrible. We shouldn't be dealing with this many issues this late in the program."
Employees working on the 787 complain about insufficient oversight of suppliers and a management system that the senior engineer called "totally broken."
"This program is not like anything we've seen," said the veteran 787 employee. "It's a screwed-up mess."
A top Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) official 10 days ago warned Boeing that without further proof of the plane's reliability, it won't be certified to fly the long intercontinental routes that airlines expect it to serve.
Among the 787's lesser ongoing problems is "rain in the plane," the term used for heavy condensation dripping inside the jet's composite plastic fuselage.
"The purpose of flight tests is to find out what you did wrong," said a senior engineer who expects the 787 will ultimately prove successful. "But the amount of stuff we are finding is horrible. We shouldn't be dealing with this many issues this late in the program."
Employees working on the 787 complain about insufficient oversight of suppliers and a management system that the senior engineer called "totally broken."
"This program is not like anything we've seen," said the veteran 787 employee. "It's a screwed-up mess."
Dec 19, 2010, 9:31 am
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The Times article is mostly accurate, except if anything it understates the problems. I was at a party last night with a senior Boeing engineer who's a friend and, though not directly attached to the 787 program, is well aware of its state. He said there are more, more intrinsic problems with the a/c's design, materials and technology that have not come to light yet, and the entire company is in shock and fear... over the dawning possibility that they may have bet the entire ranch on an airplane that will not -- cannot -- work.
Fancher's assurance at the article's close that "[t]his is a great airplane. It will deliver on the promises," is a statement of hope, not fact. He's whistling past the graveyard. In fact, nobody knows.
Boeing created a grand slam of risk factors for itself here: untried technologies, new aircraft, radical design, new and untried subcontractors, unproven distributed-manufacture model, and an aggressive production timeline. Looking back, signing on to all this was an act of hubris and irrationality. There is hatred in the hallways for the McDonnell-Douglas guys imported in the merger who argued for all this radical process change... especially Harry Stonecipher, who thought you could farm out component assembly to Japan, Italy, etc. the way carmakers farm out car components.
Numerous program directors on the 787 have been fired -- the Times article doesn't address this -- and more are retiring to avoid nervous breakdowns or heart attacks. The problems are that deep and the pressure is that bad.
The Boeing BOD is vomiting blood over all this, of course -- apparently Boeing has paid out $5 billion in late-delivery penalties, and counting, to airlines whose fleet/route strategies for this decade have been destroyed by the non-appearance of the 787 -- and it is no longer unthinkable to ask when it's appropriate to punch the reset program... bring the 787 back to Everett (they've already said they'll yank some of the horizontal-stabilizer work away from Alenia and try building them in house) or... pull the plug.
The 748 / 748i is also burdened with massive problems, I hear, but they're getting a lot less attention because hardly any airline wants one. And of course the 787 has created crises of faith and credibility for Boeing everywhere.
Don't hold your breath for IAH-AKL... ever.
Dec 19, 2010, 10:36 am
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