Is the announcement of TiVo partnering with Microsloth the begining of its demise?

http://www.tivo.com/5.3.1.1.asp?article=233

with Windows Media Center, open source DVR programs, cable company proprietary dvrs.... I'd say it's just a matter of time. Especially if they don't drop their monthly fees.

TiVo still has the edge in User Interface, and their rates are not out of line with many cable company DVRs (I pay $10/month with Comcast for their DVR and $13/month for TiVo), though the cable company DVRs offer much more functionality - Comcast in SEA uses the Motorola 6412 which has dual HD tuners so we can record two channels (HD, digital, analog, or a mix) at one time, which is a big improvement over TiVo.

Right now, I let the 6412 handle HD and Digital, with TiVo covering analog. But as Comcast moves everything to digital, the TiVo will eventually become redundant and I will cancel the service.

Comcast is installing out 6412 tomorrow, and if they reviews are correct then I don't think TiVo will last more than a few weeks here. You are right that the price in service isn't that much, but that 9.95 a month gets us the DVR and HDTV service. Plus there are no out of pocket investments in the device, we don't have to deal with the cable hookup (which every now and then would mess things up) and we don't get Tivotogo, plus we lose the HMO.

On the plus side; the Comcast box does have Firewire which will make copying content off it much easier.

As for HMO, I'm hooking up a Windows MCE box to the HDTV, I'm no longer content with just music and photos and the MCE will add IM, news, weather and most importantly; video.

So, is the end of TiVo near? I hope not, but I suspect it is, and it won't be because of Microsoft, it will be because they will never be able to compete in the current market.

Talks of a cablecard HD dual tuner TiVo are appearing, but considering the DirectTV HD Tivo is just under $1000 I don't think they will be able to match 9.99 a month for service and equipment...

My mother has Time Warner in upstate NY and they're charging $4 and change / month. That's $100 less a year -- hard to justify Tivo at those prices. Not to mention that Tivo makes you buy the box, but TW gives it to you for free.

well if you have directv... directivos are relatively cheap (nonHD) and they only charge $5 a month for service...and has dual tuners.

This is the reason why I'm dropping DirecTV next week after 8 years of use. I just bought a new 50" Plasma, and want to go HD. I've been using the DirecTivo box for quite a while now, and really like it (as in can't live without DVR). For $4.95/month, it's definately better than the stand-alone Tivo, as it has two tuners and records directly in digitial.

The problem is, I don't want to spend $1000 on the HD DirecTivo. Sure, you can bargain with DTV and end up getting about a $250 service credit to offset it, but it's still too much money. I'm going with Cox and the Motorola HD DVR. Pretty much the same functionality as Tivo now, and no capital outlay! Sure, I won't be able to use Tivo to Go, but it probably won't be out for DirecTV for many months anyway.

Tivo is also in big trouble as DirecTV is rumored to developing their own DVR. DirecTV is one of their biggest customers.

I guess I spoke too soon:

http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoe...038&highlight=

MORE on that here:

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000793026327/

If THAT isn't the end of TiVo then I don't know what will be...

I was playing devils advocate with my original post. The DTV announcement will certainly complicate the TiVo and Replay business models.

It makes sense for DTV to work with their CAS provider to build their own DVR. With CableHome and other Cable inititiatves we'll see similar functionality from terestrial and Sat providers. But, there may still be some ground for TiVO and Replay as there are millions of viewers that don't have cable or sat service.

For those of you dumping TiVo for a cable DVR you might be able to get some of the TiVotogo functionality from thie Sling Media.

While I'm not real fond of Microsloth, they have positioned themselves quite well for the home media market with their stand-alone, xbox, cable and other capabilities.

That's the exact reason I went with them instead of the TV, besides the dual HD tuner....

At the CES today looked at Dish's new dual HD tuner/ATSC tuner and DVR unit that is coming out in February. MSRP of 699 or 250 down and your monthly charges. If it holds true, so long Directv!

You won't see the media center until the end of 2006 (if you're lucky) given DirecTV's track record.


There's two big news events out of CES on the Tivo front IMHO. The first is that DirecTV is towing the NewsCorp/SkyTV party line and is basing their new DVR on NDS hardware/software. See this release: DIRECTV Debuts Interactive Digital Video Recorder at CES Tradeshow
Now given all of the "beginning of the end" for Tivo + DirecTV announcements today (media center, new DVR), why would anyone in their right mind shell out $899 for an HD DirecTivo? Does DirecTV not want to sell their HD DirecTivo between now and whenever they start shipping their HD DVR?


Second, the saving grace for Tivo may be here: TiVo Developing High-Definition, Digital Cable Ready DVR. An HD Cablecard ready Tivo box could be the thing that saves Tivo from going under after the loss of the DirecTV partnership...

Dish's track record with DVRs is laughable. By laughable I mean: lose all your saved programs whenever they do a major update their software.

If Echostar was smart, they'd jump on the Tivo bandwagon now that DirecTV has jumped off...

No way - I don't want to spend more!

TIVO within 10yrs will be a footnote in history.