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DOING THE MATH on 1/31/07's RE-CATEGORIZATION

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DOING THE MATH on 1/31/07's RE-CATEGORIZATION

 
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 9:37 am
  #46  
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At least I'm at a point where my exit strategy is clear. Going into the devaluation, I was down to 51k points in my account. On Feb 1, I halted all SPG Amex usage. So at this point, I will later this year do a 5-nighter at an "old" Cat 4. (I'll do it out of peak season - we always travel outside peak season anyway.) So I'll get burned for 8k, or 20% Considering that the overall economy and hotel demand have pushed general rates up 10-20% in many markets, I don't really feel like I'm getting zapped too unfairly there.

The real bummer for me is this SPG Amex sitting in my wallet. There's no clear-cut replacement for that. A mix of rebates and Thank You Points? I don't know... For hotels, I was already doing most revenue stays at Marriott, so I'm not getting zapped - yet - on that side of things. (As long as Marriott keeps the Travel Packages in place, I can withstand category creep and only lose about 10% in value.) It's the credit card side of things that's killing me here.
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 10:19 am
  #47  
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wsbombers, pinniped, mileking and other active users of the AMEX card.

What's next for you all ? I am not certain how to respond to this eye-popping dilution, but its time to diversify at minimum. What AA's milesaaver initiative taught me a couple of years ago...spg's 1/31/07 changes have only served to reinforce. I thought the blood-letting of Dec 31st, 2005, in spg's program was tough and was a 2-3yr event in terms of depth and breadth. Nope. Was I ever wrong. Thus these two years' CAT creeps have pretty much finished me in terms of being a positive supporter of spg amove my peers, friends, family, and business assocates. 'nuff is 'nuff.

If someone had the time to "do the math", that person should compare 2005 properties name by name to 2007 properties in terms of CAT LEVEL and AWARD REQUIREMENT for a STD ROOM for one night. This would really may your eyes pop. I don't have the time and I think I would get sick seeing such a comparison anyway. I am certain that spg has gouged too deeply if one compares the past 395 days (Dec 30, 2005, vs Feb 1, 2007) changes to span 395 days.

Wiliam, starwood internally compare Dec 30, 2005 CAT and AWARD requirements, to Feb 1, 2007, when considering 2007 CAT changes ? Somone over there sure applies thr "smell test" when considering major program alterations like these, no ? A comparison which would taken into account two annual changes and their effects, not just one yrs' worth would highllight what has just happened, when only considering each year separately does not expose the full adverse impact here. ? Does starwood not understand that for many spg members it can take 12-18 months to accrue enough points to take advantage of a N&F II award ? If you agree on this point, then talk about a dangled carrot that is, truth be told, never achievable, because spg just keeps implementing NEW CATS or allowing CAT CREEP far excessive to a) inflation, or b) ability of spg members to accumulate starpoints. What a classic way to kill an affinity program.

I think I am now going to establish my Sams Club Discover, offering a true 2% cash rebate, no cap until $1M ($20K annual rebate), as my primary card now. If I feel indulgent I'll spend $12-$1500 of the rebate towards an spg matress run late 2007 as I work to burn off a healthy starwood balance if maintaining PLAT is a big thing, and if not I will drop down to spg GOLD via my CENT package, since I don't have anything close to a 25-night away-from-home requirement for my business needs and could not otherwise qualify PLAT.

As far as recommending spg as my "preferred affinity", I can't look my friends, family, and business associates straight in the face any longer and recommend this program. It is now a fond memory of what was in 2005 the undisputed best of breed affinity program, thanks to which I and many family, extended family, and business associates (and several charity auctions I donated huge point bundles to) enjoyed some incredible discretionary leisure travels. In 2006 spg was still best of breed, but w/ negative undercurrents and rumblings of discontent (thanks largely to Dec 31, 2005 CAT changes no doubt). Amazing program devaluation is at the heart and soul of the value proposition of spg's affinity program year after year.

Spg is only holding now as a "top affinity" for me because I can move spg points into AA at 1:25:1, which therefore de facto beats any pure mileage-only credit card (eg Citibank's aadvantage card). So it retains a thin, but still discernable, advantage over other generic programs (DC's ClubRewards and AMEX's MR) because of the flexibility of the spg point to be moved to other currencies w/ a bonus (assuming United and Continental are not critical needs). If/when this transfer option goes away (becomes 1:2) with other premier domestic US airliness, as it did for us all for United in 2006, and now for Continental in 2007, spg becomes a very ho-hum affinity program going forward.

MY CONCLUSION as of 1/31/07: What was great in 2005 (pre the Dec 31st, 2005 CAT changes which were quite expensive in/of themselves)...was acceptable and arguably still "best of breed" among the big four hotel chains for 2006...but on 1/31/07, with yet another years' CAT creep (and addition of the CAT 7 which was an indirect and discreet way to introduce an additional stealth award level at ridiculous redemption rates (which in effect are almost de facto blackouts on those properties without calling them blackouts)) for program year 2007, became just "another choice among many".

Wonder what MBAs at starwood let this happen and if it was on purpose, or via apathy, or ignorance, or greed, or exactly what the motivation was ? Gosh - starwood had a very appealing financial report Q4/2006, WITHOUT and PRIOR TO all of these changes. So why kill the golden goose just now ? I'm bummed as a consumer, but I am also perplexed as a businessperson myself that starwood dared gut this once-wonderful starwood affinity program.

Last edited by ILUVCITIBANK; Feb 5, 2007 at 10:20 pm
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 11:11 am
  #48  
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Originally Posted by ILUVCITIBANK
wsbombers, pinniped, mileking and other active users of the AMEX card.

What's next for you all ? I am not certain how to respond to this eye-popping dilution, but its time to diversify at minimum. What AA's milesaaver initiative taught me a couple of years ago...spg's 1/31/07 changes have only served to reinforce. I thought the blood-letting of Dec 31st, 2005, in spg's program was tough and was a 2-3yr event in terms of depth and breadth. Nope. Was I ever wrong. Thus these two years' CAT creeps have pretty much finished me in terms of being a positive supporter of spg amove my peers, friends, family, and business assocates. 'nuff is 'nuff.

If someone had the time to "do the math", one should compare 2005 properties name by name to 2007 properties in terms of CAT and AWARD REQUIREMENT for a STD ROOM for one night. This would really may your eyes pop. I don't have the time and I think I would get sick seeing such a comparison. Spg truly have gouged too deeply iif one compares the past 395 days (Dec 30, 2005, vs Feb 1, 2007) changes to span 395 days.

Wiliam, did anyone at starwood compare Dec 30, 2005 CAT and AWARD requirements, to Feb 1, 2007, when considering 2007 CAT changes ? A comparison which would taken into account two annual changes and their effects, not just one yrs' worth? Does starwood not understand that for many spg members it can take 12-18 months to accrue enough points to take advantage of a N&F II award ? If you agree, then talk about a carrot that is being dangled before one that is, truth be told, never achievable, because spg just keeps implementing NEW CATS or allowing CAT CREEP far excessive to a) inflation, or b) ability of spg members to accumulate starpoints. What a classic way to kill an affinity program.

I think I am now going to establish my Sams Club Discover, offering a true 2% cash rebate, no cap until $1M ($20K annual rebate), as my primary card now. If I feel indulgent I'll spend $12-$1500 of the rebate towards an spg matress run late 2007 as I work to burn off a healthy starwood balance if maintaining PLAT is a big thing, and if not I will drop down to spg GOLD via my CENT package, since I have nowhere close to a 25-night away-from-home requirement for my business needs and could not otherwise qualify PLAT.

As far as recommending spg as my "preferred affinity", I can't look my friends, family, and business associates straight in the face any longer and recommend this program. It is now a fond memory of what was in 2005 the undisputed best of breed affinity program, thanks to which I and many family, extended family, and business associates (and several charity auctions I donated huge point bundles to) enjoyed some incredible discretionary leisure travels. In 2006 spg was still best of breed, but w/ negative undercurrents and rumblings of discontent (thanks largely to Dec 31, 2005 CAT changes nonetheless). Amazing how this issue is at the heart and soul of the value proposition of spg's affinity program year after year.

Spg is only holding now as a "top affinity" for me because I can move spg points into AA at 1:25:1, which therefore de facto beats any pure mileage-only credit card (eg Citibank's aadvantage card). So it retains a marginal, but still superior, advantage over other generic programs (DC's ClubRewards and AMEX's MR) because of the flexibility of the spg point to be moved to other currencies w/ a bonus (assumg United and COntinental are not critical needs). If/when this transfer option goes away (becomes 1:2) with other premiere domestic US airliness, as it did for us all for United in 2006, and now for Continental in 2007, spg becomes a very ho-hum affinity program going forward.

MY CONCLUSION as of 1/31/07: What was great in 2005 (pre the Dec 31st, 2005 CAT changes which were quite expensive in/of themselves)...became acceptable and arguably still "best of breed" among the big four hotel chains for 2006...but on 1/31/07, with yet another years' CAT creep (and addition of the CAT 7 which was an indirect and discreet way to introduce an additional stealth award level at ridiculous redemption rates (which in effect are almost de facto blackouts on those properties without calling them blackouts) for program year 2007, became just "another choice among many".

Wonder what MBAs at starwood let this happen and if it was on purpose, or via apathy, or ignorance, or greed, or exactly what the motivation was ? Gosh - starwood had a very appealing financial report Q4/2006, WITHOUT and PRIOR TO all of these changes. So why kill the golden goose just now ? I'm bummed as a consumer, but I am also perplexed as a businessperson myself.

SPG AMEX still has the highest conversion of points to airmiles as far as i know, if that were to change (a la CO) then I would probably agree that SPG AMEX starts to be useless. I have moved to Citi PP Elite and/or V2. Look into that. Pinniped started a nice thread about this in Milesbuzz, check it out.
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 1:08 pm
  #49  
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Originally Posted by ILUVCITIBANK
wsbombers, pinniped, mileking and other active users of the AMEX card.

What's next for you all ? I am not certain how to respond to this eye-popping dilution, but its time to diversify at minimum.
I haven't made up my mind 100%, but I think I'm reaching the same conclusion: diversification is best. I've tried to keep it simple as far as CC usage goes: Marriott, UA, and HH cards only for purchases at those brands, SPG Amex everywhere else. Now I'm contemplating a mix of rebates and home-grown points (TYP), but haven't yet pulled the trigger on either.

I'm bummed as a consumer, but I am also perplexed as a businessperson myself.
I'm speculating here, because I notice a trend that's occurring at other chains too - albeit in different ways than what just happened at Starwood. It seems to be that hotels are trying to migrate away from reliance on high-volume customers and trying to downplay the frequent-guest programs/statuses in general. I see it at Hiltons that are actively taking measures to discourage Golds/Plats from staying there (see NY and SF Hilton threads). I've seen it at Marriott for years in that they tend to keep the benefits of the elite levels pretty flat and in-hotel service very consistent. (To Marriotts credit, at most hotels they execute this pretty well, and they do have a lot of good promotional tools like Bonus Bucks available to all levels.)

I'm guessing that in a booming economy where hotels are full, a property is more profitable if non-elites are filling the rooms. The hotel has to deliver fewer services to the guests because the expectations aren't as high, and they probably collect more revenue because they aren't dealing with as many customers who "know the game" very, very well like many here do. Would you rather have a hotel full of elites who want their free breakfast, the perfect upgrade, bonus points, etc. - all on a good promo rate they found online - or would you rather have a hotel full of people who simply used their corporate travel agent to book a room and are happy to get their smoking preference?

We probably all see a microcosm of this during normal peak and off-peak seasons. I hate staying a hotel during peak season, because the service inevitably stinks. The problem is that now every day is peak season. When my usual business trips to Seattle are running into near-sellout hotel rates in February, you know business is booming.

But business cycles are what they are, and eventually hotels the pendulum will swing back and hotels will compete for our business. Right now is just a crappy time to be part of that "frequent guest" demographic, but frankly, nobody really wants us around - and we're used to being wanted.
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 2:38 pm
  #50  
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Originally Posted by ILUVCITIBANK
I think I am now going to establish my Sams Club Discover, offering a true 2% cash rebate, no cap until $1M ($20K annual rebate), as my primary card now. If I feel indulgent I'll spend $12-$1500 of the rebate towards an spg matress run late 2007 as I work to burn off a healthy starwood balance if maintaining PLAT is a big thing, and if not I will drop down to spg GOLD via my CENT package, since I have nowhere close to a 25-night away-from-home requirement for my business needs and could not otherwise qualify PLAT.
You have to charge over $35K/yr in order come out ahead of flat 1.5% rebate card (i.e. Fidelity Visa). Since you charge a lot, Sam's Club Discover card will serve you well but I have to find different alternatives.

BTW, here's the link to the Sam's Club Discover Card thread

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...t=sam+discover
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 8:36 pm
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by Dampflok
With this decsision they loose 5 out of the 6 continents in this world. Since there is no SPG credit card available outside of US and Canada the rest of the world simply can not achieve a reasonable ammount of free nights anymore. As pointed out in an earlier post, I am not spending 10.000$ in *wood hotels to get one free night in a nice resort. Since I have no other options of earning points being based in Europe, I have just the option of leaving.

Dear Starwood managment: Either bring the SPG card to Europe or bye, bye!

And the same applies to Australia, too. No SPG card, no more SPG loyalty as it simply doesn't make sense to stay at SPG hotels looking at the earn/burn ratios after the dilution...it's pathetic!
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 9:19 pm
  #52  
 
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While I'm certainly no Starwood apologist, crying foul of dilusion in Australia is a bit tough to take seriously when none of the nine Starwood properties in Australia changed categories. Of nearby countries' properties, Indonesia, Fiji, and Vanuatu redemption rates went down overall, while New Caledonia and French Polynesia went up (though some properties in each remained unchanged).


Originally Posted by Sydfly
And the same applies to Australia, too. No SPG card, no more SPG loyalty as it simply doesn't make sense to stay at SPG hotels looking at the earn/burn ratios after the dilution...it's pathetic!
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 9:48 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by pinniped
I'm guessing that in a booming economy where hotels are full, a property is more profitable if non-elites are filling the rooms. The hotel has to deliver fewer services to the guests because the expectations aren't as high, and they probably collect more revenue because they aren't dealing with as many customers who "know the game" very, very well like many here do. Would you rather have a hotel full of elites who want their free breakfast, the perfect upgrade, bonus points, etc. - all on a good promo rate they found online - or would you rather have a hotel full of people who simply used their corporate travel agent to book a room and are happy to get their smoking preference?
This is why in the last booming economy (roughly 1998-2000, just before Hilton bought out the Promus brands), I had no status anywhere. Standard room rates were just too high, and at the time Priceline was just getting started and offering $25/night off of rooms - and I did almost 80 Priceline nights in 2000 ranging from $1-$125/night (Yes, that was a $1... I miss those days).

If airport-area room rates start going over consistently $100 on the weekends and $200 during the week, it'll be time for me to start throwing in Priceline bids again at 65% of the AAA rate, and forget the status.
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 10:58 pm
  #54  
 
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upgrade

Originally Posted by Sydfly
I did my math as well and decided that it's time to leave Starwood for good. Here is how they compare against some other major hotel chains if you base your calculations on a base member account and think about using points during a high season time (which is what I always do):

I now have to spend 12.500 US$ to get 25.000 SPG points (2 for 1$ or 3 for Plat member) for one free night in Hawaii at the Princeville Resort as a base member and if compare this to the other hotel chains Starwood is the biggest looser.

If I spend 12.500 US$ with IC Hotels group I earn 125.000 points (10 for 1$, or 15 for Plat member) which is worth 4x as many nights at an equally nice luxury hotel around the world (think Bora Bora, Bali etc).

If I spend 12.500 US$ with Hilton I earn 187.000 points (15 for 1$ or 17.5 as a Gold) enough for almost 5 free nights at one of their best hotels around the world.

If I spend 12.500 US$ with Hyatt I earn 62.500 points (5 for 1$ or 5.75 as a Plat) which is enough for 3.5 free nights at one of their top hotels (PH Sydney, Tokyo etc) even considering their recent program devaluation.

Are they thinking that we are stupid? Why in the world would anyone ever stay at an SPG hotel again if they have a choice?? This was a very bad move, SPG, very bad move

I know that you might say Hilton awards are harder to get. That's true but then again I get almost 5x as many nights out of the same spending. And with Hyatt e.g. it's not as hard to get an award room.

In the end everyone of you has to make their own decision, but for me it makes absolutely no sense to stay at SPG hotels ever again. Maybe that's what they wanted seeing that I'm dropping to base level this month anyway but I'd urge you to do your own maths and think in which program you get the best value. And if more people stop staying at SPG properties they might reconsider their bad move and make the program better soon. The only reason for them to change it thoug is if they don't get the same revenue from us, their loyal customers.
i would say that the suite upgrade for spg platinums is important to many of us.

SPG made a big mistake in kicking centurion owners out .. now a lot of us did switch to IC RA , and well i like it. i liked PC before, but the suite option of SPG was too good to switch to PC, but now having RA and getting suite upgrades, i have switched 90% of my spg stays already to IC.

i will not try to keep spg platinum this year, but i will forsure try to keep IC RA as the free minibar alone is worth thousands of USD per year.

about CAT7, well for us non US spgers, it is impossible to earn these awards, but i think there might be some people who can use these awards.

60.000 spg points = 180.000 amex points 3.1 is the conversation rate.
for this points i get a FIRST CLASS TICKET worth 10.000 USD , and i dont think one night in these hotels is worth 10000 USD.

so this is a super rip off.

dp
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 11:18 pm
  #55  
 
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I guess I'll start my migration to anther reward card. However, I do so with the expectation of disappoint in a future year.

Really for me, I will stop using the SPG card when I can get more money from cash back. I can still do better than 2 cents a point at some places but no longer is it an easy task. Places like the Princeville going to 20-25k really take the benefit out of the 3-4 cent a point equation. But I guess that is what they were trying to do in the 1st place.

For those who are switching allegiances for good why burn a bridge, why not just leave until its best for you to return? Hyatt, marriott and Hilton have all adjusted their programs for the worse.

So SPG has forced our hands, a defacto elimination of certain hotels from redemption. Example: I wont use pts next time at Princeville if the room are still $400-500 a night. Thats only 1 cent per point. I'll save those points for when I can get a 3 to 5 cent per night rate at a different hotel. They just made you work harder to use your SPG pts.


Ken in Phx
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Old Feb 5, 2007, 11:23 pm
  #56  
 
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Originally Posted by derpelikan
60.000 spg points = 180.000 amex points 3.1 is the conversation rate.
for this points i get a FIRST CLASS TICKET worth 10.000 USD , and i dont think one night in these hotels is worth 10000 USD.

so this is a super rip off.

dp

A couple probs I have with your assumptions is the 1:3 ratio at AMEX MR. Its a horrible rate and most wait for the 1:2 to redeem for SPG pts.

#2 Thats assuming you'd pay 10k for 1 FC ticket. I cant think of any time I got jacked that bad for a FC seat. Then again I dont buy FC tix with a sense of urgency, usually we plan way out and look for the cheapest avail.

So in a worst-worst scenario you could say 60k SPG would cost $10k but its a real reach imo.

Ken in Phx
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Old Feb 6, 2007, 5:50 am
  #57  
 
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I've always been a Starwood supporter, but the new CAT 7 and continued increase in point requriements, has me spending more and more time with Hilton. At least with Hilton I can actually find a property just about everywhere I travel. Lately, it's been to small towns so I have about 12 nights already booked at Hampton Inns over the next two months. BTW, does Starwood realize that Albany is the capital of NY? They might want to open a property there, once again.

In terms of my SPG AmEx card, I'll keep using it until I find an alternative--maybe the HHonors AmEx and Visa?? I'm not a fan of airline charge cards becuase I am never able to find award availability despite attempts to beek 11 months in advance. I sure do like the good old days with MBNA's reward program. Their program didn't require any loyalty at all.
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Old Feb 6, 2007, 6:30 am
  #58  
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Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick
If airport-area room rates start going over consistently $100 on the weekends and $200 during the week, it'll be time for me to start throwing in Priceline bids again at 65% of the AAA rate, and forget the status.
I always assess the Priceline landscape for leisure stays. In my case, I frequently find either by using a Marriott EEO or Premium Pounds, I can get down into the Priceline ballpark - or I can find a 2-bedroom suite that is on par with booking 2 Priceline rooms (these days, there are usually 4-5 of us traveling together). But I always check it out, and from time to time will use it. I'd advise everybody to do the same - even if for no other reason than to have a good understanding for what they are paying for their points, cancel flexibility, upgrades, etc. It's enlightening.
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Old Feb 6, 2007, 7:21 am
  #59  
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Originally Posted by ILUVCITIBANK
For the record: William, I feel for you having to be the "public frontrunner" for starwood on this major fiasco, not unlike Tony Snow at a bad press conference. Stay tough, but perhaps ask yourself, from our perspective, how you would feel if your "bank" of starpoints just underwent a 60-66% devaluation (for mid-CAT level properties (resorts) which I prefer and target). Unless I blew the math, this is what just happened.
I totally agree with the thrust of your argument. Just have a slight quibble with the arithmetic. Assuming a 2/3 increase in redemption rate, this actually devalues your point balance by 40%. Think about it this way: say your point balance is x and the original redemption rate is r. Then the number of nights you could get before the increase is x/r; afterwards, it's only x/[(5/3)r]. Divide the later by the former, and you get 3/5, or a 40% devaluation.

(A 67% devaluation means that your points would be worth only 33% of the old value, or a tripling of redemption rates.)
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Old Feb 6, 2007, 7:36 am
  #60  
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I agree: I feel for William. He's been a strong representative both ways - representing his brand to this community, and supporting the community when it has a problem that needs to be resolved. But Starwood pays the bills - not us - and now he's in a position where the program is undergoing a massive change and he can't really say much about it. At a minimum - he has to stay out of the realm of opinion and remain in the realm of facts. Since I know he has opinions (I've read his OMNI posts ), I'm sure this is a difficult place to be.
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