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Finally hit by RR devaluation

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Old Feb 27, 2019, 12:25 pm
  #1  
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Finally hit by RR devaluation

I went to book a flight today and got hit with sticker shock. My $150 flight required 10,000 RR points. Looking online, this devaluation supposedly happened in mid 2018, but until a few weeks ago I was getting about 2 cents per RR point on WGA flights. I can't find anything about people still getting 2 cents until recently or a new 2019 devaluation.

Any idea what happened here? For example, I have a flight I booked in January for mid-march. Cash price was $59, and I used 2517 RR points, ie about the normal 2 cents. Now a $59 flight costs 3242 RR points. That is a very sudden 28% devaluation!

All of my SW travel is within California.
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Old Feb 27, 2019, 1:10 pm
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Originally Posted by humesd
I went to book a flight today and got hit with sticker shock. My $150 flight required 10,000 RR points. Looking online, this devaluation supposedly happened in mid 2018, but until a few weeks ago I was getting about 2 cents per RR point on WGA flights. I can't find anything about people still getting 2 cents until recently or a new 2019 devaluation.

Any idea what happened here? For example, I have a flight I booked in January for mid-march. Cash price was $59, and I used 2517 RR points, ie about the normal 2 cents. Now a $59 flight costs 3242 RR points. That is a very sudden 28% devaluation!

All of my SW travel is within California.

We need more info. City pairs & date? Which fare? And what is the cash cost exclusive of taxes and fees?
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Old Feb 27, 2019, 1:53 pm
  #3  
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Originally Posted by humesd
For example, I have a flight I booked in January for mid-march. Cash price was $59, and I used 2517 RR points, ie about the normal 2 cents. Now a $59 flight costs 3242 RR points.
2517 points is a $49 cash fare, of which $32.26 is base fare. 32.26 x 78 = 2516.28. A $150 cash fare requires about 10k RR points at 78 points per dollar of base fare.
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Old Feb 27, 2019, 3:25 pm
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Keep in mind that for a true point valuation comparison, you need to look only at the base fare, exclusive of taxes and fees -- not the advertised "cash fare."

Taxes and fees included with cash fares (but not points redemptions) represent differing proportions of the total cost depending on fare. This makes lower fares seem like a better points "value" than higher ones.

EDITED: At the moment, WGA points redemptions cost 78 points per $1.

Last edited by ursine1; Feb 28, 2019 at 3:50 am
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Old Feb 28, 2019, 1:47 am
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Originally Posted by ursine1
At the moment, WGA points redemptions generally cost between 72 and 78 points per $1.
Are you sure? Per my recollection and Change in points redemption value: BS/AT/WGA all 78/dollar = 8% devaluation for WGA, the variable points / $ redemptions for WGA was changed to 78 points / $ for all fare classes.
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Old Feb 28, 2019, 3:48 am
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Originally Posted by ftnoob
Are you sure? Per my recollection and Change in points redemption value: BS/AT/WGA all 78/dollar = 8% devaluation for WGA, the variable points / $ redemptions for WGA was changed to 78 points / $ for all fare classes.
Ah, crap -- I think you're (basically) right.

Even after that last devaluation was announced, I know that I was still sometimes finding 76/$1 redemptions available, but a quick spot check now makes it seem everything is 78/$1.

I don't believe Southwest ever officially stated that WGA redemptions would be fixed at 78/$1, and, for what it's worth they still note that, "The number of points needed for a particular Southwest® flight is set by Southwest and will vary depending on destination, time, day of travel, demand, fare type, point redemption rate, and other factors..."

But here we are.

If anyone has any data points showing lower then 78/$1 redemptions those would be interesting to see. (The previous tracking thread hasn't been updated since 2016, prior to the most recent devaluation.)

Note: That most recent devaluation was in April of 2018, the one-year anniversary of which we're coming up on. :/

Could Hawaii break 80/$1?
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Old Feb 28, 2019, 5:19 am
  #7  
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Originally Posted by ursine1

Could Hawaii break 80/$1?
If it ever goes to, say, 85, I may cash the whole load in for Amazon GCs.
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Old Feb 28, 2019, 6:26 am
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Originally Posted by ursine1

Even after that last devaluation was announced, I know that I was still sometimes finding 76/$1 redemptions available, but a quick spot check now makes it seem everything is 78/$1.

....

If anyone has any data points showing lower then 78/$1 redemptions those would be interesting to see. (The previous tracking thread hasn't been updated since 2016, prior to the most recent devaluation.)
Think you are right about 78.

I grabbed some random undesirable cheap fares/itineraries to check. Here is one:

Tuesday, April 9, MDW-ATL, 5:45 am. One-way. First flight of the morning.

WGA $94 cash (actually $93.50)

Breakdown for points:
  • Adult base fare
    5,443 PTS
  • U.S. Flight Segment Tax
    $0.00
  • U.S. Passenger Facility Chg
    $0.00
  • U.S. Transportation Tax
    $0.00
  • U.S. 9/11 Security Fee
    $5.60
  • Total per Passenger
    5,443 PTS + $5.60
    x1 Passenger
  • Flight total
    5,443PTS + $5.60
I do not have much coffee in me yet, but that looks like 5443 points = $87.90

or ~61.9 points per dollar, effectively.

Also found one effectively 58 ppd.

For cash:
  • Adult base fare
    $69.77
  • U.S. Transportation Tax
    $5.23
  • U.S. 9/11 Security Fee
    $5.60
  • U.S. Flight Segment Tax
    $8.40
  • U.S. Passenger Facility Chg
    $4.50
  • Total per Passenger
    $93.50
    x1 Passenger
Pumped up by the abated fees on an itinerary with a connection. So, yeah, still 78 against the base fare on a crappy redemption, but that's really not what you should look at IMO.

Last edited by toomanybooks; Feb 28, 2019 at 6:49 am
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Old Feb 28, 2019, 8:01 am
  #9  
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Originally Posted by ursine1
If anyone has any data points showing lower then 78/$1 redemptions those would be interesting to see.
Southwest toyed with some 60 and even 55 points per dollar early morning and late night flights, but it's been about 2 years since I've seen one of those.
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Old Mar 1, 2019, 1:55 pm
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I saw some last year on what I would consider to be not very desirable flights (if you had to fly as scheduled and didn't use A-List standby or other option) where the points required was less than other flights of the same $ price.

However, I would say that I would not use only the $ chart to determine the points version of a given flight and check both if there is any chance that you wanted to use points versus paying for the ticket.
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Old Mar 1, 2019, 3:31 pm
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Originally Posted by nsx
Southwest toyed with some 60 and even 55 points per dollar early morning and late night flights, but it's been about 2 years since I've seen one of those.
I was going to chime in about those, but couldn't remember how long ago it had been - which made me think it was probably longer ago than it feels. Two years sounds too long, but I'd bet on your recollection over mine.
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Old Mar 2, 2019, 1:23 pm
  #12  
 
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Originally Posted by humesd
I went to book a flight today and got hit with sticker shock. My $150 flight required 10,000 RR points. Looking online, this devaluation supposedly happened in mid 2018, but until a few weeks ago I was getting about 2 cents per RR point on WGA flights. I can't find anything about people still getting 2 cents until recently or a new 2019 devaluation.

Any idea what happened here? For example, I have a flight I booked in January for mid-march. Cash price was $59, and I used 2517 RR points, ie about the normal 2 cents. Now a $59 flight costs 3242 RR points. That is a very sudden 28% devaluation!

All of my SW travel is within California.
In November 2018 I booked a R/T flight SJC-ABQ-SJC going for $155 for 7,900 mile r/t.
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Old Mar 3, 2019, 9:49 pm
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I still see some 64-65 pt/$ redemptions available on limited flights departing before 6 AM available through end of schedule. Check out DEN-LAX.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 4:06 am
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Originally Posted by oopsz
I still see some 64-65 pt/$ redemptions available on limited flights departing before 6 AM available through end of schedule. Check out DEN-LAX.
Looks like the lowest DEN-LAX fares the last few months of the schedule are all $113 or 7,111 points. The base fare on that $113 is $91.16, and 7,111 / 78 = $91.17, so those are all still 78 points /$1.

Note: The effective point value on that $113 fare is 63/$1. 7,111 / 63 = $112.87.

There are some $59 DEN-LAX fares available closer in for 3,242 points. The base fare on that $59 is $41.56, and 3,242 / 78 = $41.56, so those are also 78 points /$1.

The effective point value on that $59 fare is 55/$1. 3,242 / 55 = $58.95.

As we've discussed, lower fares have a higher effective point value due to the larger percentage of total fare represented by the taxes and fees which are not collected on points bookings.

What we're discussing here is the fixed WGA point conversion value, which appears to remain at 78/$1.


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Old Mar 4, 2019, 4:46 am
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Originally Posted by ursine1
Looks like the lowest DEN-LAX fares the last few months of the schedule are all $113 or 7,111 points. The base fare on that $113 is $91.16, and 7,111 / 78 = $91.17, so those are all still 78 points /$1.

Note: The effective point value on that $113 fare is 63/$1. 7,111 / 63 = $112.87.

There are some $59 DEN-LAX fares available closer in for 3,242 points. The base fare on that $59 is $41.56, and 3,242 / 78 = $41.56, so those are also 78 points /$1.

The effective point value on that $59 fare is 55/$1. 3,242 / 55 = $58.95.

As we've discussed, lower fares have a higher effective point value due to the larger percentage of total fare represented by the taxes and fees which are not collected on points bookings.

What we're discussing here is the fixed WGA point conversion value, which appears to remain at 78/$1.

Good way of explaining it. I doubt most people would have went through the trouble to break it down like that. Since the effective point value is what matters to most people, I think it is good that you put those numbers up, instead of just the base fare.
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