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WN to cease overbooking flights

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Old Apr 30, 2017, 2:03 pm
  #46  
 
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So many people cancel/rebook their tickets at short notice, you'd think that WN needs overbooking more than anyone else, but maybe not. Suppressing or monetizing that flexibility may be the relief valve. Optimal outcome is profound savings in denied boarding comps and good will.

That improved prediction algorithm must be some kind of wonderful.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 2:45 pm
  #47  
 
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Originally Posted by pinniped
Feels like an overreaction to me. UA3411 had nothing to do with overbooking.
No, but the uninformed public reaction to it did, and that's what companies find themselves forced to respond to.

And we're all going to suffer for it.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 3:16 pm
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by Kevin AA
re no more overbooking... I was thinking about this:

With more open seats at the time of departure, this greatly increases the value of the free standby policy for A-listers. This means WN could get frequent fliers who are on the fence to switch from another airline because the probability of getting an empty seat is now much greater. While the % of seats filled won't go down that much, there is clearly a tremendous difference between a flight with 3 open seats and 4 on standby than there is with a flight that has 6 open seats and 4 on standby.

Not overbooking, the standby privilege, and the greater number of people who are able to use it means the late flights will have even more open seats. This is awesome for people who have mis-connected. I expect the number of people who get stuck overnight at a hub because they mis-connected and the one and only remaining flight tonight is full will drop like a rock. That increases the value of a WN ticket.

In other words, even if you never volunteer your seat, or never even hear an announcement for volunteers, the fact that you could miss your flight, or standby, and have a significantly greater chance of getting on board (say, 40% instead of 10% or whatever it is) will increase the value of a WN ticket, which means if the $59 tickets sell out sooner, more people will be willing to buy a $79 WN ticket instead of just jumping to another carrier for $79 where you can be almost assured of a full flight and almost no chance of getting home today in the event of an oversell or misconnection.
Hmm, I'm not so optimistic. The no more overbooking policy sounds great and all until you see that WN will be making less money because they can no longer sell more fares than are available for a flight. Less revenue for not being able to sell as many fares as they want means WN will be recuperating the difference one way or another, and it probably won't be to the benefit of the customer. It sounds too good to be true, imo in this day and age, for an airline to stop overbooking flights without some kind of catch.

This could mean no more free bags, checked or carry-on, or it could mean something like introducing a change fee or penalty. This is not good for people who need flexible, last minute travel options. Imagine having a $200+ change fee (plus the fare difference) just to change your flight. Many other airlines do this, and the no change fee really set WN apart from the rest.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 3:44 pm
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by BerenErchamion
No, but the uninformed public reaction to it did, and that's what companies find themselves forced to respond to.

And we're all going to suffer for it.
The UX/United disaster was a result not of overbooking, but overcapacity. Southwest responds that they will stop overbooking, but that overcapacity situations will still occur. Stupid people applaud.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 4:50 pm
  #50  
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Originally Posted by GrayAnderson
This is basically the B6 situation: They don't overbook but if they have to hot-swap an A320 in for an A320, that's something like 50 pax to reaccommodate (and, in the defense of both airlines, a reasonable case for doing so). The only way an airline is going to succeed in getting that many volunteers is to get lucky.

And yes, I was thinking within an airline with my "Priceline style" (or probably more properly "Hotwire hotel style" offering.
I presume that was a typo (and you meant to have a different plane type for one of those cases)?

In my experience, it doesn't take a smaller plane to cause reaccommodation havoc at the gate. At least at AA, oodles of people lose their seat assignments even in a modest change of plane (single aisle to slightly bigger single aisle). While they can get a seat in that case, if they're not on top of it they may not be able to get as good a seat as they originally reserved (if someone else gets it first in the scramble). And to some people that's almost as bad as not getting a seat at all (if they got dumped out of an extra legroom aisle and dumped into a cramped middle seat, just because of a plane swap).

Which of course isn't a situation that can happen at Southwest right now. (But if Southwest ever goes to assigned seating, then they'll have that challenge on equipment swaps too.)
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 4:53 pm
  #51  
 
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I don't think the vast majority of infrequent or frequent travelers are that concerned about overbooking. I don't understand what they feel they are gaining by this move.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 4:57 pm
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by sdsearch
I presume that was a typo (and you meant to have a different plane type for one of those cases)?

In my experience, it doesn't take a smaller plane to cause reaccommodation havoc at the gate. At least at AA, oodles of people lose their seat assignments even in a modest change of plane (single aisle to slightly bigger single aisle). While they can get a seat in that case, if they're not on top of it they may not be able to get as good a seat as they originally reserved (if someone else gets it first in the scramble). And to some people that's almost as bad as not getting a seat at all (if they got dumped out of an extra legroom aisle and dumped into a cramped middle seat, just because of a plane swap).

Which of course isn't a situation that can happen at Southwest right now. (But if Southwest ever goes to assigned seating, then they'll have that challenge on equipment swaps too.)
Oops. Meant A321 for an A320 in the case of B6. Good catch.
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Old Apr 30, 2017, 10:35 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by Poker2012chu
Hmm, I'm not so optimistic. The no more overbooking policy sounds great and all until you see that WN will be making less money because they can no longer sell more fares than are available for a flight. Less revenue for not being able to sell as many fares as they want means WN will be recuperating the difference one way or another, and it probably won't be to the benefit of the customer. It sounds too good to be true, imo in this day and age, for an airline to stop overbooking flights without some kind of catch.

This could mean no more free bags, checked or carry-on, or it could mean something like introducing a change fee or penalty. This is not good for people who need flexible, last minute travel options. Imagine having a $200+ change fee (plus the fare difference) just to change your flight. Many other airlines do this, and the no change fee really set WN apart from the rest.
Obviously the market is what sets the fares, but WN has been a market fare leader for years, so I'm not too worried about that.

Mathematically, not overbooking does not necessarily mean less revenue. For example:

137 seat aircraft, overbook by 3
sell 50 WGA $50 tickets
sell 45 WGA $70 tickets
sell 28 WGA $99 tickets
sell 8 AT $236 tickets
sell 9 BS $252 tickets

total revenue $12,578

137 seat aircraft, no overbooking
sell 46 WGA $50 tickets
sell 42 WGA $70 tickets
sell 32 WGA $99 tickets
sell 8 AT $236 tickets
sell 9 BS $252 tickets

total revenue $12,564 ($14 less but denying boarding to 3 people will cost more than that)

This means 4 fewer sales at $50, 3 fewer sales at $70, 4 more sales at $99, for a net decrease of 3.

They could raise fares more to cover the revenue that was being generated by overbooking (minus the cost of VDB/IDB and the bad rap that comes with it), but at some point they become uncompetitive and then there are empty seats.

I hope that works, because the alternative could be scary (even with 2 free bags): make all fares non-refundable (but full travel credit for AT/BS fares), a $25 change fee for WGA fares, and require cancellation within 3 hours of departure or you forfeit the funds.
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Old May 12, 2017, 6:07 pm
  #54  
 
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I know this comes under the general heading of "overheard from the guy three bar stools to the right of me," but---->

When we asked if our flight needed volunteers, the gate agent said, "we don't overbook flights any more." We had a bit of banter regarding this and she said, "I heard that we will return to overbooking after the new system has settled down."

Makes sense. Overbooking on top of a new system, with its unknown impact, could get messy. WN may have just seen a great marketing opportunity in light of the UA debacle....a marketing opportunity which just happened to help prepare them for D-day on the system cutover.
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Old Jul 13, 2017, 1:00 pm
  #55  
 
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When is the system crossover? Wondering if anyone has currently received LUV vouchers for voluntary denied boarding?
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Old Jul 13, 2017, 2:30 pm
  #56  
 
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Originally Posted by marlin
When is the system crossover? Wondering if anyone has currently received LUV vouchers for voluntary denied boarding?
Hard to conclude this is on the front burner.

Southwest Airlines is working to stop overbooking flights after an April incident in which a United Airlines passenger who refused to give up his seat was forcibly removed from the aircraft, Southwest's CEO said Thursday.

The task is becoming easier because lower jet fuel prices are helping the industry's bottom line, Gary Kelly said during a luncheon at the downtown Atlanta Commerce Club sponsored by the Atlanta Press Club.
"We can afford to take this risk ... in terms of lost revenue," he said.
Atlanta Business Chronicle - July 13, 2017
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Old Jul 14, 2017, 10:15 am
  #57  
 
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Gate agents were seeking one volunteer on a flight from LAX to MDW Wednesday evening. When I asked about the "no overbooking" policy, the agent explained that there was a "medical issue" which was to blame.

I am guessing that either (a) one seat cushion was unusable due to a previous passengers's air sickness, or (b) a customer of size blocked one seat.
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Old Jul 15, 2017, 9:47 am
  #58  
 
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GK's initial statement included the possibility of occasional VDBs due to some situations. He mentioned necessary transportation of employees, but other situations could cause it.
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Old Jul 15, 2017, 10:10 am
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by rsteinmetz70112
GK's initial statement included the possibility of occasional VDBs due to some situations. He mentioned necessary transportation of employees, but other situations could cause it.
And also mentioned May 8th as a start date. FF to mid July.."We're working to stop overbooking."

Far more media opportunity than crisis, anyway. 3,072 bumped passengers in 4Q 2016 isn't even 1%.
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