sbm12

Continental has announced their intentions to move from SkyTeam to Star Alliance. This will hurt the alliance in some areas, notably N. America to Mexico and Latin America, especially if Copa moves with them.

slowly

Any ideas how long will it be possible to redeem Continental miles for SkyTeam flights? Especially RTW?…

sbm12

CO cannot leave without breaking the contracts until 9 months after the DL/NW merger closes. That pretty much means that you get most of 2009 and the switch will likely happen 1/1/2010 or something like that. But the NW/DL date is the lynch-pin in the process.

kiwiandrew

very interesting , I can see this going one of two ways

Obviously CO jumping ship is a major blow to Skyteam and they can either ;

Use every contractual/legal avenue available to them to slow the process - besides the unspecified restriction which remains in place until '9 months after DL/NW consommation' there may be other contractual arrangements with Skyteam itself - for example when MX left Star there was a lot of talk of an element in the exit clause which required a minimum two year 'stand down' after the termination of Star before MX could join a competing alliance - if Skyteam have a similar arrangement it could mean a period of 3 years or so before CO could become a member of Star although that would not necessarily prevent them from making bilateral arrangements with individual Star airlines in the intervening period

or

Much like the situation where a senior executive announces their intention to join a competitor often the need to get them out of your organisation and away from strategic information as quickly as possible means that you choose not to enforce 'golden handcuff' clauses - you just get them out of your organisation as quickly as you can because a hostile entity on the inside can cause you a lot of damage - just because Skyteam/NW can enforce contractual elements does not mean that they will necessarily choose to do so .


It will be interesting to see which way Skyteam/NW decide to handle this situation - drag it on as long as possible , or try for a quick clean break

dblevitan

If they forced a clean break it would make many customers mad. People already have non-refundable reservations for probably up to a year that they're looking to credit to a ST partner. My guess is that this is going to be stretched out to some extent.

KIXman

Well, this clears up things for me as to where to bank on SkyTeam.

For some reason I have accounts with OnePass, WorldPerks and Flying Blue and I was wondering which to focus on for this year. My WP account's for miscellaneous miles earned on non-SkyTeam partners; I have status with OP, and my FB account's been dormant for quite some time.

However, with CO turning *A in the future, looks like there's no more use for me to use this account as I've got quite a lot on another. So FB it is for SkyTeam miles to come!

sbm12

I would expect it to be relatively drawn out. The contract goes both ways and CO won't want out until they can get included in the anti-trust immunity for LH/UA/AC/etc., so chances are they won't agree to a preemptive departure from the alliance. They don't want to piss of their customers.

skrosvik

This is bad for the Alliance, and for us Anyone who knows if Copa will leave ST too?? ST ends up with almost no coverage in Central and South America then, and loose it's New York hub. I am not a big fan of CO, but they have many key cities in South America, easily reached from New York.

I think ST will be the weakest alliance after this, with a bunch of insignificant and crappy airlines such as Allitalia and Aeroflot... While SA and OW have good coverage throughout the world, with the departure of CO/Copa ST will lack coverage in South- and Central America, North-East USA, South East Asia, Middle East, India and Oceania.

I think the two significant alliances have been more aggressive and accessed key-markets like Middle East with the entries of Royal Jordanian and Turkish Airlines. Soon Air India will join SA - that's also an significant carrier in a key-market. So where will this leave ST...? There is not many significant carriers left to choose from....

sh1982

I think for south america we will see Avianca annouced in the coming year or so they are already close with DL and AF/KL and with copa leaving(a big competitor for AV even within Colombia) this would open they way for them to join.Also i think GOL/Varig will join but i dont think that will be anytime soon.With the rumors that Air Tahiti Nui is joining as a associate and DL possiblebly opening a direct USA-AUS flight i think the Oceania will be covered quit well.For the Middle east will still have MEA pending and i think either GF or EY would be canidates to.For India i think it is given that Kingfisher will join it was recently stated by the director of skyteam that they we talking to them.In Asia we will have China Airlines joining proberly next year and there is alway Malaysian if i am corrected the restructing plan is due to be completed in 2009/2010 so maybe we will see them join by that time, plus there is still a chance that China Eastern may also join.I think that would give Skyteam a good as a covarge in Asia as star.Also you seem to forgot that DL also has a big international hub in NYC it is not as big as EWR for CO but still i dont think it is that much of blow that CO is leaving.

sbm12

CO leaving is a huge blow to the NYC operations of SkyTeam. DL has some operations at JFK but nothing close to what CO has at EWR. Plus DL is shutting down a number of their JFK international routes later this year.

VN is in negotiations to join which will also help a bit in SEAsia and hopefully for ST KingFisher will join. I would not expect DL to start operations to Oz anytime soon, despite their announced desires to do so. Getting Air Tahiti Nui on board would help in Oceania, but still leave ST as a distant third behind OW (QF) and *A (NZ) in that region. MH won't happen anytime soon either, IMO.

For South/Central America, Copa leaving is a big gap that would need to be filled. The other options listed are viable, but SkyTeam is very slow in getting partners online in the program so there will likely be some period of time where there is a void there.

DJMeatBall

I checked out the SkyTeam website and there's nary a peep about the impending departure of Continental Airlines.

I wonder (and kinda hope) if the SkyTeam partners are doing something to try to negotiate CO to stay in?

skrosvik

But still ST will end up as the weakest alliance! Most of the carriers you are mentioning are small regional carriers...And I think it will take ages for them to join ST. Like MEA have been pending for YEARS, but nothing happens. I would love MEA to join, cause I enjoy their service and attendants Varig is insignificant compared to TAM. I would rather like to see TAM join ST. But of course, they seem to be joining Star Alliance... But I do understand them, why join the weakest alliance when you can join the biggest...?

EY or GF would definately be a great addition, as they are growing rapidly and serve many destinations overall. Anyways, I don't see anything of this happen in the near future...

And yeah, Delta's New York operations are nothing compared to those of CO's.

As for now, there are many regions throughout the world where ST are non-existant. Even though Delta might open a US-AUS route it won't help much!

sh1982

That all depends on where you live if you are in europe or africa i would say skyteam is one of the strongest, oneworld sucks if you live anywhere in west or central europe because most of the time your tied to BA and LHR.Also the covarage of most of the usa is quit good maybe only the west coast is lacking a bit but at least you have some DL flight out of LAX now.And i also dont understand the obessesion some people have with Oceania sure it nice to have an airline there when you do a RTW but there are only like 30 milion people on the whole region so i would say it is not that much of priority.And for the point that MEA hasnt joined yet i think it has partly to do with the fact that until very recently it have been quit difficult times for Lebanon.

sbm12

ST and *A are equally strong in Europe and the USA right now. Should CO actually make the leap to *A (and it is not a done deal yet by a long shot) *A will become stronger in Europe/USA based on the benefits that CO takes away from ST and moves in to *A. For Asia the change means nothing. *A remains strongest, followed by OW and then ST. For Africa the change means nothing. *A is probably strongest now thanks to EgyptAir joining and giving more options than just SAA. ST is second with KQ and then OW. And in Oceania it goes OW/*A/ST.

Really very little will change, but ST will still trail in most regions. The fact that most the people who fly live in the USA/Europe means that ST likely isn't really all that worried, but that's a whole different part of the discussion.

skrosvik

MEA have been pending for years, also when Lebanon were stable. With the current situation in Lebanon and MEA's (miserable) condition I don't see any addition to ST in near future... Would like to see EY or GF join instead, as they have a broader network in the region, but I don't see that happening too soon either...